26.03.2021
Social and political mood of the population (23-24 March 2021)
- A survey conducted by the Sociological Group Rating shows that 68% of Ukrainians believe the country is moving in the wrong direction, while 23% think it is moving in the right direction and 9% remain undecided. More optimistic assessments come from young people, residents of the West and Kyiv, and voters of Servant of the People and Holos.
- President Volodymyr Zelensky remains the most trusted political figure: 45% trust him and 52% do not. Yulia Tymoshenko is trusted by 30% and not trusted by 67%. Petro Poroshenko is trusted by 25% and not trusted by 73%. Yuriy Boyko receives 23% trust and 59% distrust, with 14% saying they do not know him. Mikheil Saakashvili is trusted by 23% and not trusted by 61%, while 11% have not heard of him. Viktor Medvedchuk is trusted by 15% and not trusted by 71%. Denis Shmyhal receives 15% trust and 53% distrust, with nearly one-third saying they have never heard of him. Oleksiy Danilov is the least known: only 6% trust him, 15% do not, and 77% have no opinion because they do not know who he is.
- In the parliamentary vote simulation, Servant of the People leads with 20.8% among those who have decided and intend to vote. European Solidarity follows with 15.0%, Opposition Platform–For Life with 14.8%, and Batkivshchyna with 12.4%. Support for the remaining political forces is significantly lower: Strength and Honor and Ukrainian Strategy of Groysman both receive 5.0%, the Radical Party 4.6%, Holos 3.5%, UDAR 3.2%, Yevhen Murayev’s Nashi 3.1%, Shariy’s Party and Svoboda 2.9% each, Za Maybutnye 2.4%, and Narodnyi Front 2.0%.
- Zelensky remains the frontrunner in the presidential race. If the election were held in the nearest future, he would receive 24.7% of the vote among those who intend to vote and have made their choice. Poroshenko would receive 13.9%, Boyko 12.6%, Tymoshenko 11.8%, while Ihor Smeshko would gain 7.7%. Groysman would receive 5.2%, Razumkov 3.8%, Lyashko 3.7%, Murayev 3.7%, Hrytsenko 3.3%, Yatsenyuk 2.8%, Tyahnybok 1.6%, and Kira Rudyk 0.5%.
- A large share of respondents do not support the protests in support of Serhiy Sternenko: 43% oppose them, 23% support but do not want to participate, and only 4% both support and are willing to join. Another 21% are indifferent. Over the past three weeks, the number of those who do not support these protests has increased.
- Seventy-four percent heard about the protest during which the Office of the President building was damaged (34% heard a lot, 40% heard something about it). A quarter of respondents know nothing about the event. Only 14% support the protesters’ actions, while 70% do not.
- Sixty-five percent believe those who damaged the Office of the President building should be required to clean up or pay compensation for the damage. Another 20% favor opening criminal cases against them, up to imprisonment. Only 9% believe no action should be taken.
- Since early March, the share of those who believe the coronavirus infection rate is rising has grown sharply: 68% think it is increasing (compared to 37% in early March). Twenty-two percent think the situation has not changed, and only 5% say the infection rate is declining.
- Support for a strict lockdown in case of rising infection has also grown: 61% back such measures now, compared to 56% at the beginning of March, while 37% oppose. Most respondents — 68% — prefer to impose strict lockdowns only in regions with dangerous levels of infection, whereas 26% favor a nationwide lockdown.
- A strong majority — 68% — believe Ukraine must use all possible means to return Crimea. Twenty-one percent think Ukraine should accept the peninsula’s occupation by Russia. Since 2014, support for Crimea’s return has gradually increased.
- Forty-five percent support resuming water supplies to temporarily occupied Crimea, while 48% oppose.
- Seventy-one percent consider Russia an aggressor toward Ukraine, while 22% disagree. The highest share of those denying Russian aggression is found among residents of the East and voters of the Shariy Party, Murayev’s Nashi, and Opposition Platform–For Life.
Methodology
- Audience: Ukrainian citizens aged 18 and older in all regions except for the temporarily occupied territories of Crimea and Donbas. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender and type of settlement.
- Sample size: 2,500 respondents.
- Survey method: CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing). Based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers.
- The margin of error for the study with a confidence level of 0.95 is no more than 2.0%.
- Fieldwork dates: 23-24 March 2021.
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