07.10.2013
Socio-political moods in Ternopil: September 2013
- According to a survey conducted by the Rating Group, when speaking about the country overall, the majority of city residents believe that Ukraine is moving in the wrong direction (68%), while only 19% believe the country is moving in the right direction. Another 13% were undecided. At the same time, when assessing the situation in the city, 42% of respondents believe that Ternopil is moving in the right direction, while the same share (41%) believe it is moving in the wrong direction, and 17% are undecided. Most respondents (57%) believe that the situation in the city over the past 12 months has significantly or somewhat improved, about a quarter believe it has not changed, and only 18% believe that changes were mostly negative. Looking ahead, 51% expect the situation in the city to improve over the next 12 months, 28% do not expect changes, and 17% expect deterioration. When comparing Ternopil with other regional centers of Ukraine, an absolute majority (68%) would classify the city as average, while 4% consider it a leader and 20% an outsider.
- Among the key local problems, residents are most concerned about poor road conditions (73%), employment problems (55%), high utility tariffs (48%), poor quality healthcare services (46%), poor drinking water quality (41%), and poor performance of housing maintenance services (35%). In addition, respondents mention the sanitary condition of the city (28%) and chaotic urban development (24%). Compared to the previous year, the number of residents concerned about road conditions increased (from 64% to 73%), poor healthcare quality (from 42% to 46%), poor drinking water quality (from 35% to 41%), chaotic construction (from 18% to 24%), and insufficient parking infrastructure (from 5% to 11%). At the same time, concern about employment decreased (from 68% to 55%) and about the sanitary condition of the city (from 34% to 28%), while other issues remained at approximately the same level.
- In September 2012, the majority (51%) of Ternopil residents expected positive changes following parliamentary elections. One year later, only 6% reported that these expectations were met, while the expectations of the majority (79%) were not met. Currently, the biggest expectations from the newly elected Parliament relate to increasing salaries and pensions (53%), creating new jobs (39%), ensuring economic growth (36%), fighting corruption (34%), and protecting the Ukrainian language and culture (33%). Compared to expectations before the elections, ideological expectations have decreased, while socio-economic expectations have increased. In particular, expectations related to salary and pension growth increased (from 44% to 53%), job creation (from 36% to 39%), healthcare quality improvement (from 21% to 25%), and education quality improvement (from 12% to 19%). At the same time, expectations related to protecting Ukrainian language and culture decreased (from 52% to 33%), the release of Yulia Tymoshenko (from 21% to 17%), freedom of speech (from 19% to 16%), and initiating impeachment of President Yanukovych (from 23% to 13%).
- If elections to the Ternopil City Council were held next Sunday, more than 75% of residents would participate. The highest support would be for Svoboda (34%), followed by UDAR (26%) and Batkivshchyna (23%). Around 3% would vote for the Party of Regions, 2% for Our Ukraine, more than 3% for other parties, and 9% are undecided. Among candidates for mayor, the highest support would be for incumbent mayor Serhiy Nadal (48%), followed by Vitaliy Maksymov (11%) and Roman Zastavnyy (about 10%). More than 4% would support Ihor Huda, about 4% each would support Vasyl Lylo and Mykhailo Ratushnyak, nearly 3% would support Petro Landyak, nearly 8% would support other candidates, and 9% are undecided. The most well-known local politicians are Serhiy Nadal, Roman Zastavnyy, and Oleh Kayda, who are known by almost all respondents. Around 80% also know Vasyl Lylo, Mykhailo Ratushnyak, and Vitaliy Maksymov. The most positive attitudes are recorded toward Serhiy Nadal (56%), Oleh Kayda (42%), Roman Zastavnyy (31%), and Vitaliy Maksymov (26%). The most negative attitudes are recorded toward Roman Zastavnyy (33%) and Petro Hoch (31%). The highest satisfaction among residents is with the work of the mayor (68%), while satisfaction with the acting head of the regional council (23%) and the head of the regional state administration (23%) is significantly lower.
- Among national politicians, local residents trust Vitaliy Klitschko the most (69%), followed by Oleh Tyahnybok (59%), Arseniy Yatsenyuk (59%), and Yulia Tymoshenko (49%). The highest levels of distrust are toward Viktor Yushchenko (80%), Viktor Yanukovych (87%), Mykola Azarov (89%), and Petro Symonenko (89%). Over the past year, trust in Tyahnybok and Yatsenyuk has remained stable, while trust in Tymoshenko and Klitschko has increased. If presidential elections were held next Sunday, more than 80% of residents would participate. Vitaliy Klitschko would receive the highest support (31%), followed by Yulia Tymoshenko (21%), Oleh Tyahnybok (14%), and Arseniy Yatsenyuk (13%). Around 4% would vote for Petro Poroshenko, around 2% each for Viktor Yanukovych and Anatoliy Hrytsenko, more than 4% for other candidates, 2% would vote against all candidates, and 8% are undecided. If Tymoshenko did not participate, Klitschko would receive 36%, Yatsenyuk 23%, and Tyahnybok 16%.
Methodology
- Survey population: population of Ternopil city aged 18 and over
- Sample size: 800 respondents
- Method: face-to-face interviews
- Margin of error (95% confidence):
- near 50%: ≤ 2.8%
- near 30%: ≤ 2.4%
- near 10%: ≤ 1.7%
- Fieldwork period: September 13 – September 27, 2013
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