23.12.2016
Estimation of 2016 events and socio-political moods of population
- According to a survey conducted by the Rating Group in December 2016, the greatest achievements among the events of 2016, in the view of respondents, were Jamala’s victory at the Eurovision Song Contest and the performance of the Ukrainian Paralympic team at the Rio de Janeiro Paralympic Games.
- Among the year’s achievements respondents also named the government’s initiative to raise the minimum wage to 3,200 UAH, the introduction of electronic income declarations for officials, the performance of Ukraine’s national team at the Olympic Games in Brazil, and the release of Nadiia Savchenko from Russian captivity. Respondents also viewed as relatively successful the launch of public procurement through the Prozorro electronic system, the reduction of excise duties on imported used cars, the increase in the army’s combat capability, the introduction of competitive selection for civil servants, and the entry into force of the EU–Ukraine Free Trade Area Agreement.
- Mixed assessments were given to the decentralization reform, the performance of Ukraine’s national football team at EURO-2016, the introduction of quotas for Ukrainian-language songs on radio, and the process of decommunization.
- Respondents considered the EU visa-free negotiations, the talks on resolving the situation in Donbas, and the investigation into the killings on Kyiv’s Independence Square in February 2014 to be failures. The lowest ratings on the “success–failure” scale were given to the fight against corruption, the situation with utility tariffs, the exchange rate, and prices for basic food products and services.
- Among areas of public policy in 2016, respondents rated national defense policy the most positively. 41% considered the government’s policy in this area successful, while nearly 50% held the opposite view. Compared with the beginning of 2016, the share of those seeing positive developments in defense increased (in January it was 34%).
- Police reform was considered successful by 28%, and unsuccessful by 65%. The share of those evaluating this area positively declined by one and a half times over the year.
- Decentralization was considered successful by 22%, while 62% did not see positive results. Compared with the beginning of the year, the number of those who rated this reform positively increased by more than one and a half times.
- Negotiations with the European Union on visa-free travel were rated positively by 18% and negatively by 74%. Over six months, the share of those who consider this policy unsuccessful increased (in January it was 54%).
- Social protection policy was considered successful by only 9% and unsuccessful by 87%. A slight positive trend was recorded over the year (from 5% to 9%).
- Support for small and medium-sized businesses was seen as successful by 9% and unsuccessful by 77%; the fight against corruption as successful by 8% and unsuccessful by 89%; judicial reform by 8% and 84%; healthcare policy by 7% and 89%; and limiting the influence of oligarchs by 6% and 89% respectively. At the same time, compared to the previous year respondents noted slight progress in anti-corruption efforts, judicial reform, SME support, and healthcare.
- More than 90% of respondents considered government performance unsuccessful in ensuring currency stability, utility services, and economic growth.
- Only 16% were satisfied with the performance of President Petro Poroshenko, while 82% were dissatisfied. A similar situation was observed for Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman: 16% satisfied, 78% dissatisfied. Speaker of Parliament Andriy Parubiy received 11% approval and 82% disapproval.
- Parliamentary opposition performance was approved by 12% and disapproved by 78%, while evaluations of the governing coalition were even worse: only 6% satisfied and 86% dissatisfied.
- The leader in party electoral preferences is Batkivshchyna. If elections were held soon, 16.0% of likely voters who had decided would vote for it. 11.8% would support BPP Solidarity, 11.7% the Opposition Bloc, 8.5% the Radical Party, 8.6% Samopomich, 6.7% Civic Position, 5.9% For Life, the same share Svoboda, 2.7% UKROP, and 2.5% the Saakashvili New Forces Movement. Other parties had ratings below 2%.
- In the presidential race, Yuliya Tymoshenko remains the leader with 17.7% of decided voters. Petro Poroshenko would receive 13.5%, Yuriy Boyko 10.4%, Oleh Liashko 8.8%, Andriy Sadovyi 8.4%, Anatolii Hrytsenko 8.1%, Vadym Rabinovych 7.3%, Oleh Tiahnybok 4.9%, Dmytro Yarosh 3.5%, Nadiia Savchenko 1.8%, and Andrii Biletskyi 0.9%.
Methodology
- Audience: residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older. The sample is representative by age, sex, regions, and settlement type.
- Total sample: 2000 respondents.
- Personal formalized interview (face-to-face).
- The margin of error does not exceed 2,2%.
- Fieldwork dates: 8-18 December 2016
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