14.06.2019
Attitude towards early parliamentary elections
- According to the results of a survey conducted by Rating Group on June 8–12, 2019, public support for early parliamentary elections increased significantly over the course of one month, rising from 72% in May to 88% in June. At the time of the survey, only 8% of respondents held the opposite view, compared to 18% in May.
- Two thirds of respondents (67%) believe that the newly elected parliament will be more effective than the previous one. At the same time, 82% are convinced that the appeal lodged by a group of Members of Parliament to the Constitutional Court against President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s decree on dissolving parliament and calling early elections is not so much a defense of legality as an attempt by MPs to extend their mandates for at least a few additional months. Only 9% of respondents disagree with this interpretation.
- Support for early elections, confidence in the effectiveness of the future parliament, and the view that MPs are attempting to prolong their powers by challenging the dissolution of the Verkhovna Rada enjoy broad backing across all age groups, regions, and electoral segments. The main exception is supporters of the party “European Solidarity,” the majority of whom oppose early elections, believe that the future parliament will be less effective, and consider the appeal to the Constitutional Court to be a legitimate defense of constitutional order.
- A majority of respondents (58%) believe that the President’s decree on dissolving parliament corresponds both to the Constitution and to public sentiment. Another 20% think that while the decree does not comply with the Constitution, it does reflect public moods. Only 6% consider it illegal and inconsistent with societal expectations. The largest share of those who view the decree as both constitutional and aligned with public opinion is found in southern Ukraine (67%), while the lowest share is in the western regions (50%). From an electoral perspective, supporters of the “Servant of the People” party are most convinced that the decree complies with both the law and public expectations (72%), whereas this view is least common among supporters of “European Solidarity” (7%). Nearly half of the latter group believe that although the decree is unlawful, it nevertheless corresponds to public expectations.
- If the Constitutional Court were to declare President Zelenskyy’s decree on dissolving parliament unconstitutional, 63% of respondents believe that parliamentary elections should still be held on July 21, 2019, as stipulated in the presidential decision. Another 20% argue that in such a case elections should be held according to the regular schedule in October 2019, while only 7% support holding elections in September. Regionally, support for holding elections specifically on July 21 is highest in the South (71%) and relatively lower in the Center (57%). Among supporters of the most popular political parties, the majority favor holding early elections in July. As in previous questions, the main opposition to this scenario comes from supporters of “European Solidarity,” 70% of whom prefer elections to be held as scheduled in October 2019.
Methodology
- Audience: residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender, region, and settlement type.
- Total sample: 2500 respondents.
- Personal formalized interview (face-to-face).
- The margin of error does not exceed 2.0%.
- Fieldwork dates: 8-12 June, 2019.
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