19.10.2011
Attitude to the union of Serhiy Tihipko with the Party of Regions
- According to the results of a study conducted by the Sociological Group “Rating”, only 19% of respondents believe that the merger of the party Strong Ukraine with the Party of Regions is more beneficial for S. Tihipko, while almost as many (16%) believe it is more beneficial for the Party of Regions. At the same time, the majority (44%) believe that the merger is beneficial for both sides, and only 3% believe it is beneficial for neither.
- Another 18% were unable to decide on this issue.
- Supporters of V. Yanukovych tend to believe that the merger is more beneficial for S. Tihipko, whereas supporters of Tihipko himself believe it benefits the Party of Regions.
- It should be emphasized that after the announcement of the merger of Strong Ukraine with the Party of Regions, only 3% of respondents improved their attitude toward S. Tihipko, 54% did not change their attitude, and 33% actually worsened their attitude toward the politician. Another 10% could not determine whether their attitude had changed.
- The greatest deterioration in attitudes toward Tihipko was recorded in the West (39%), North (38%), and Center (37%), as well as in the East (33%) and the South (31%). Only in the Donbas did attitudes barely worsen (16%), where the majority (61%) did not change their attitude. The strongest decline in support for Tihipko occurred among supporters of A. Hrytsenko (60%) and Y. Tymoshenko (55%), as well as O. Tyahnybok (43%), A. Yatsenyuk (41%), and those in the “against all” category (41%).
- Only 4% of respondents in the Donbas, 4% in the East, and 3% in the South improved their attitude toward Tihipko. Among Yanukovych’s supporters, only about one in ten improved their attitude toward Tihipko after the merger, and the same share worsened it, while the majority (70%) did not change their view. Among Tihipko’s own supporters, only one in ten improved their attitude, while a quarter worsened it and 60% did not change their opinion.As a result, since May 2011 overall trust in Tihipko has declined from 23% to 18%, while distrust has increased from 70% to 74%. Currently, the highest levels of trust in the Vice Prime Minister are in the South (23%), East (20%), and Donbas (20%).
- The most negative attitudes are found in the West, where 82% do not trust Tihipko — even more than those who distrust Yanukovych (75%).
- Currently, about 60% of Yanukovych’s supporters trust Tihipko, as do one quarter of V. Klychko’s supporters and one in six supporters of V. Lytvyn. At the same time, about 90% of supporters of A. Hrytsenko, A. Yatsenyuk, O. Tyahnybok, and Y. Tymoshenko, as well as almost 90% of supporters of P. Symonenko and those in the “against all” category, do not trust him.Since mid-last year, when Tihipko was the national leader in trust (over 60%) and even outpaced Yanukovych, his level of trust has fallen by more than three times.By almost all indicators, Tihipko has returned to the level of two years ago — October 2009, when he launched his presidential campaign.
- According to a late-September survey by the Rating Group, almost half of Tihipko’s supporters would vote for Yanukovych in a presidential election, one in five for Yatsenyuk, and one in ten for Klychko. On this basis, it can be assumed that:
- a part of Tihipko’s supporters has already joined the Party of Regions, which in particular has contributed to the stabilization of its ratings amid the continued decline of Yanukovych’s rating;
- another part remains undecided, contributing to the growth of the “undecided” (from 9% to 11%) and “against all” (from 12% to 13%) groups;
- another part has become disillusioned and moved to support Front for Change and UDAR, whose ratings have increased since May.
- Taking this into account and considering the experience of the second round of the 2010 presidential election, it can be assumed that the likely flow of voters from Strong Ukraine will be approximately 60 to 40 in favor of the Party of Regions, among those Tihipko supporters who will actually vote.
- One more interesting point: in December 2010, Front for Change first overtook Strong Ukraine in the rankings and took third place nationally. On average, each of these parties held the third position for no longer than one year, and the average duration of the so-called “honeymoon” period (peak ratings) was about eight months.
Methodology
- Survey population: residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older.
- Sample size: 2,000 respondents.
- Method: face-to-face formalized interviews.
- Margin of error (95% confidence):
– near 50%: no more than 2.2%
– near 30%: no more than 2.0%
– near 10%: no more than 1.3%
– near 5%: no more than 1.0% - Fieldwork period: September 17–27, 2011.
- Regional breakdown:
- West: Volyn, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Chernivtsi
- Center: Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy
- North: Kyiv city, Kyiv region, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Chernihiv
- South: Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Odesa, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Sevastopol
- East: Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv
- Donbas: Donetsk, Luhansk
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