Attitude to the situation in the East of Ukraine

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22.07.2014

Attitude to the situation in the East of Ukraine

According to the results of a survey conducted by the Rating Group, more than half of respondents (58%) believe that Russian intelligence services are behind the armed confrontations in Eastern Ukraine, while half (49%) believe that the entourage of former President V. Yanukovych is involved. Another quarter place responsibility on the Party of Regions (28%) and local oligarchs (24%). Every fifth respondent (18%) believes the confrontations are driven by local residents dissatisfied with the policies of the new government; 15% attribute them to radical nationalist organizations, 11% to Western intelligence services, and 6% to Ukrainian intelligence services. Four percent chose another option, and 11% were undecided.
Compared to the April survey, the number of those who consider the entourage of former President Yanukovych, the Party of Regions, and Western and Ukrainian intelligence services to be involved in the confrontations in the East has increased. At the same time, the share of those who believe local residents dissatisfied with the new government are responsible has decreased.
Regionally, in Western and Central Ukraine, more respondents began to believe that the former President’s entourage is involved, while in the South fewer respondents hold this view. The Party of Regions is also blamed more often in the West, North, and Center. Compared to the previous survey, local residents dissatisfied with the new government are mentioned more often in the West, but less often in the East, South, and Donbas.
In Donbas, more respondents began blaming Russian intelligence services and radical nationalist organizations. In this region, as well as in the South, there has been an increase in the number of those who believe local oligarchs and Western intelligence services are involved in the confrontations in Eastern Ukraine.
When asked, “How would you assess the current state of relations between Ukraine and Russia?”, the majority (57%) described it as a war, 19% as a political conflict, 8% as a temporary misunderstanding, 6% as an economic conflict, 1% chose another option, and 9% were undecided. In most regions, respondents described relations as a war, except in Donbas and Kharkiv, where respondents were more likely to describe them as a political conflict.
More than half of respondents (58%) believe Ukraine should completely close its border with Russia, 34% oppose this, and 8% are undecided. Border closure is supported in most regions except the South, Kharkiv, and Donbas.
At the same time, half of respondents (49%) believe that a visa regime with Russia should be introduced, 41% oppose it, and 10% are undecided. Opposition to a visa regime is strongest in the South, Kharkiv, and Donbas.
A large majority of respondents (75%) support a unitary state structure for Ukraine, 12% support a federal structure, and 13% are undecided. Over the previous three months, support for a unitary state increased (from 69% in April to 75% in July). Support for a unitary system is lowest in Donbas, among urban residents, and among Russian-speaking respondents. Donbas is the only region where a relative plurality (40%) supports a federal structure (29% unitary, 31% undecided). In all other regions, support for a unitary state prevails.
Separation of Galicia from Ukraine is rather supported by 9% of respondents, rather opposed by 81%, and 10% are undecided. Over the previous two years, support for separation of Galicia increased from 5% in 2012 to 10% in 2014. Support for this idea is highest in Donbas, Kharkiv, the South, and Dnipro, as well as among supporters of the Party of Regions, the Communist Party, and Strong Ukraine.
Separation of Donbas is supported by 11%, opposed by 81%, and 8% are undecided. Over the past two years, support for separation increased from 2% in 2012 to 11% in 2014. The highest support is in Donbas itself (37%), about 10% in the South, Kharkiv region, Galicia, and Dnipro, and among supporters of the Party of Regions, the Communist Party, and Strong Ukraine.
Regarding integration choices, 61% of respondents support joining the European Union, 20% support joining the Customs Union, and 19% are undecided. Since April, support for EU integration has increased while support for the Customs Union has decreased. The highest support for the Customs Union is in Donbas (58%), Kharkiv region (42%), and the South (29%).
If a referendum on Ukraine’s accession to NATO were held today, 44% would support joining, 35% would oppose it, and 22% would be undecided. Over the previous three months, support for NATO membership increased slightly, while opposition decreased by 11%. At the same time, the share of undecided respondents increased by 7%. Support for NATO membership is highest in Galicia (88%) and lowest in Donbas, Kharkiv region, and the South, where most respondents oppose joining NATO. Support for NATO membership is higher among men and people with higher education.

Methodology