10.07.2023
Support for international unions: survey in Ukraine and Europe (July 4-10, 2023)
• Ukrainian citizens currently residing in Ukraine and Ukrainians currently living abroad, more than 80% of respondents would support Ukraine's accession to the European Union if a referendum were held. Support for EU accession among those currently living in Ukraine stands at 85%, while among those living in Europe it is 83%. Opposition to EU accession stands at 4% in Ukraine and 8% in Europe. Compared to the February poll, support for EU accession among those living in Ukraine has remained virtually unchanged (87% in January 2023). The level of support in all macro-regions of Ukraine is above 80%.
• Support for NATO membership is also very high: 83% of Ukrainians in Ukraine support this initiative, while 86% of those in Europe do so. Opposition to joining the Alliance stands at 6% in Ukraine and 4% in Europe. In January 2023, 86% of those living in Ukraine supported joining the Alliance. Unlike EU membership, NATO membership is viewed somewhat more cautiously by residents of the eastern part of the country (74% in favor, 8% against, 15% would not vote).
• Expectations for the NATO summit on July 11, 2023, in Vilnius among respondents living in Ukraine are mixed. Although more than half (56%) expect the summit to guarantee Ukraine's accession to NATO (29% in the short term, 27% in the long term), 27% believe that no specific decisions will be made and that everything will be limited to general statements, while another 13% believe that Ukraine will not be promised NATO membership, but will be promised weapons.
• The results of surveys in Ukraine and Europe show certain differences in respondents' assessments of the duration of the war. Thus, among Ukrainians in Ukraine, 32% believe that Ukraine needs six months to a year to win, 30% believe it needs more than a year, and 17% believe that it needs several months or less to achieve victory. Among Ukrainians in Europe, the prevailing opinion is that victory will take more than a year (40%), 23% believe that it will take six months to a year, and only 12% believe that it will be achieved in the near future. 3% of Ukrainians in Europe do not believe in Ukraine's victory at all. In Ukraine, this figure is 1%. In macro-regional terms, there are certain differences in assessments among Ukrainians living in Ukraine. Thus, more people believe in a relatively short timeframe for victory among residents of the center, west, and south. Residents of the east and the capital are less optimistic or uncertain in their assessments.
Methodology
Survey in Ukraine: Audience: Ukrainian citizens aged 18 and older in all regions, except for the temporarily occupied territories of Crimea and Donbas, as well as territories where Ukrainian mobile communications were unavailable at the time of the survey. The results are weighted using current data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender and type of settlement. Sample size: 2,000 respondents. Survey method: CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews). Margin of error for the study with a confidence level of 0.95: no more than 2.2%. Dates: 7-10 July 2023.
Survey of Ukrainians in Europe: Audience: Ukrainians aged 18 and older who found temporary refuge in European countries after 24 February 2022. The results are weighted using current UNHC (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees) data (the number of Ukrainians who have applied for asylum, temporary protection or similar national protection programmes). Geography of countries: 31 European countries. Sample size: 2,000 respondents. The online survey was conducted on the Rating Online online research platform. The margin of error for the study with a confidence level of 0.95 is no more than 3.2%. Dates: 4-10 July 2023.
