21.06.2010

The first 100 days of Azarov government: assessments and expectations

ASSESSMENT OF THE FIRST 100 DAYS OF THE MYKOLA AZAROV GOVERNMENT

  • 49% of citizens gave a positive assessment of the first 100 days of the Azarov government (almost the same number — 53% — gave a positive assessment of the first 100 days of President Viktor Yanukovych), 39% gave a negative assessment, and another 22% did not determine their assessment.
  • Positive assessments exceeded negative ones in all regions except the West. Thus, in Donbas, 75% assessed positively and 8% negatively; in the South — 69% versus 17%; in the East — 46% versus 22%; in the North — 42% versus 40%; in the Center — 39% versus 37%; in the West — 30% versus 47%.
  • 43% of citizens believe that the activity of the Azarov government was more effective than the activity of the Tymoshenko government. The opposite view is held by only 15%. Another 20% believe that both governments were sufficiently ineffective, and 2% — that both governments were effective. 20% did not determine their position on this issue.
  • By regions, in all regions except the West, the activity of the Azarov government was rated better than that of the Tymoshenko government. Thus, in Donbas 77% of respondents pointed to the Azarov government versus 1% — the Tymoshenko government; in the South — 66% versus 6%; in the East — 39% versus 7%; in the North — 33% versus 22%; in the Center — 32% versus 20%; in the West — 20% versus 31%.
  • It is worth noting that not in all spheres the actions of the government were recognized as effective. This may indicate a certain advance credit in assessments of the government’s activity. There are grounds to believe that successes in certain spheres are perceived by citizens as a kind of investment in the future, but the further it goes, the more they will ask about success in each specific sphere.
  • Thus, the actions of the government were recognized as maximally effective in such spheres as the expansion of economic cooperation with Russia (efficiency index — the difference between positive and negative values — is +42) and the adoption of the State Budget (+10).
  • Relatively effective can be considered such spheres as increasing wages and pensions (–6), preparation of the economic reform plan (–8), stabilization of the socio-economic situation (–16) and support for industry (–24).
  • Among the low-effectiveness actions of the Cabinet of Ministers, one can note raising the level of education in the country (–31), ensuring price stability (–34), and support for small and medium-sized business (–34).
  • Among the ineffective actions of the government one can single out combating unemployment (–41), support for villages (–41), fighting corruption (–45), operation of housing and communal services (–52), and raising the level of healthcare in the country (–57).
    The government’s activity in such spheres as expansion of economic cooperation with Russia, adoption of the State Budget, and raising wages and pensions was recognized as effective or relatively effective in all regions, including the West.
  • Activity in such spheres as fighting corruption, housing and communal services, and raising the level of healthcare was recognized as ineffective in all regions, including Donbas and the South.

SATISFACTION WITH THE ACTIVITY OF POLITICIANS

  • In general, residents of Ukraine are satisfied with the activity of politicians in power, but at the same time every fifth believes that it is still too early to give them assessments.
  • Thus, 49% of respondents are satisfied to some extent with the activity of President Viktor Yanukovych, 26% are not satisfied, 19% believe that it is too early to give an assessment, 3% do not see his activity, and 4% could not determine their assessment of Yanukovych.
  • The satisfaction index with Yanukovych’s activity (defined as the difference between positive and negative assessments) (+24) over the last two months improved by 4 points. The index increased the most in the North (+5 points), the East (+7), and Donbas (+8). It decreased in the West (–3) and the South (–3), and in the other regions it almost did not change.
  • 47% are satisfied with the activity of Prime Minister Mykola Azarov, 27% are not satisfied, 19% believe it is too early to give an assessment, 4% do not see his activity, and 5% did not determine their view.
  • The satisfaction index with Azarov’s activity (+19) over the last two months improved by 7 points. The index grew the most in the North (+13), the Center (+10), and Donbas (+10). In the other regions it almost did not change.
  • The activity of opposition politicians is mostly evaluated negatively by citizens.
  • Thus, only 14% are satisfied with Yuliia Tymoshenko’s activity in opposition, 61% are dissatisfied, 9% believe it is too early to give an assessment, 12% do not see any activity at all, and 5% did not determine their attitude.
  • The satisfaction index with Tymoshenko’s activity in opposition (–48) over the last two months worsened by 11 points.
  • 16% are satisfied with Arsenii Yatseniuk’s activity in opposition, 49% are dissatisfied, 13% believe it is too early to give an assessment, 14% do not see any activity at all, and 8% did not determine their view.
  • The satisfaction index with Yatseniuk’s activity in opposition (–33) over the last two months worsened by the same 11 points.

LEVEL OF COOPERATION BETWEEN THE PRESIDENT, THE GOVERNMENT, AND PARLIAMENT

  • In general, Ukrainians assess the level of cooperation between the President and the government higher than the level of cooperation between the President and the Verkhovna Rada, and between the government and the Verkhovna Rada.
  • Thus, 43% of respondents assessed the level of cooperation between the President and the government as high, 36% as medium, 9% as low, and 12% could not determine.
  • The level of cooperation between the President and the Verkhovna Rada is assessed as high by 29%, medium by 43%, low by 13%, and 14% could not determine.
  • The level of cooperation between the government and the Verkhovna Rada was assessed as high by 24%, medium by 45%, low by 14%, and 17% could not determine.
  • It is worth noting that among respondents who negatively assess the first 100 days of the government, no more than one quarter assessed cooperation between different institutions of power as low.
  • The level of cooperation between the President and the government is assessed as high by the majority of residents of the South and the North (53% and 52% respectively), as well as by a relative majority of residents of Donbas and the West (48% and 43% respectively). At the same time, only about one third of residents of the Center and the East gave a “high” assessment (34% and 31% respectively). Regional features of assessments of cooperation between the President and the Verkhovna Rada are similar to those above.

REFORMS

  • 87% of respondents indicated the need to carry out reforms in the country aimed at modernizing the socio-economic system; the opposite opinion — only 4%; 9% did not determine.
  • The need for reforms aimed at modernizing the political system was noted somewhat less often — by 74%; 12% held the opposite opinion; 14% did not determine.
  • The need for reforms was noted in all regions without exception.
  • The spheres in which reforms are most needed, in the opinion of respondents, are healthcare (77%), agriculture (66%), housing and communal services (62%), pension system (58%), industry (54%), education (48%), judicial system (44%), tax system (42%), and law-enforcement system (41%).
  • According to respondents, reforms are least needed in sports (17%).
  • It is worth noting that respondents usually indicated those spheres in which the government’s efficiency indices were lower than others.
  • The spheres in which, in respondents’ opinion, the government will achieve the greatest success in reforms are the pension system (33%) and industry (33%).
  • Somewhat less often respondents mentioned energy (26%), education (26%), small and medium-sized business (25%), healthcare (24%), tax system (24%), electoral system (24%), judicial system (22%), local self-government (22%), agriculture (21%), and housing and communal services (21%). The least respondents expect effective reforms in ecology (9%), science (10%), and culture (10%).
  • Only one third of respondents are familiar with the provisions of the reform program “Prosperous Society. Competitive Economy. Effective State”, presented by President Viktor Yanukovych in June 2010. At the same time, half of them have heard something but cannot say anything specific. Two thirds of respondents know nothing about such a program.
  • The best informed about the reform program are in the North, and the least informed — in the South.
  • At least half of those who are informed about the reform program “Prosperous Society. Competitive Economy. Effective State” believe in the success of its implementation.

Methodology

  • Survey audience: population of Ukraine aged 18 and older
  • Sample size: 2000 respondents
  • Method: face-to-face formalized interview
  • Margin of error: for values close to 50% — not more than 3%; close to 30% — not more than 2.6%; close to 10% — not more than1.8%
  • Fieldwork period: June 11–17, 2010
  • Regions:
    • West: Volyn, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Chernivtsi
    • Center: Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy
    • North: Kyiv city, Kyiv oblast, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Chernihiv
    • South: AR Crimea, Odesa, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Sevastopol
    • East: Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv
    • Donbas: Donetsk, Luhansk
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