Social and political sentiments of residents of Ternopil (February 5

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17.02.2020

Social and political sentiments of residents of Ternopil (February 5–11, 2020)

The results of a survey conducted by the Rating Group during February 5–11, 2020, in Ternopil demonstrated that city residents assess the local situation significantly better than the overall situation in the country. Thus, only 18% believe that the country is moving in the right direction, while 59% hold the opposite opinion. At the same time, almost half say that affairs in Ternopil are developing in the right direction, while 35% say the opposite.
Among local politicians, residents of Ternopil have the most positive attitude toward the city mayor S. Nadal: 59% positive, 16% negative, 24% neutral. Attitudes toward S. Barna are positive among 21%, negative among 31%, neutral among 35%, and 13% do not know him. Attitudes toward R. Pastukh are positive among 16%, negative among 13%, neutral among 26%, and 44% do not know him. Attitudes toward M. Ratushniak are positive among 14%, negative among 12%, neutral among 21%, and 53% do not know him. Attitudes toward P. Landiak are positive among 14%, negative among 10%, neutral among 21%, and 56% do not know him. Attitudes toward V. Hevko are positive among 10%, negative among 11%, neutral among 20%, and 59% do not know him. More than 60% of respondents do not know other politicians.
The leader in trust among national politicians among residents of Ternopil is Volodymyr Zelenskyi: 42% trust him, while 50% do not. A. Hrytsenko is trusted by 30% and not trusted by 52%; S. Vakarchuk by 28% and 56% respectively; P. Poroshenko by 22% and 71%; I. Smeshko by 22% and 51%, while 16% do not know him; Y. Tymoshenko by 14% and 77%; O. Tiahnybok by 14% and 75%; O. Liashko by 11% and 82%; Y. Boiko by 6% and 68%, while 15% do not know him.
Residents of Ternopil are rather dissatisfied with the activities of the central authorities. Thus, 49% are dissatisfied with the activities of President V. Zelenskyi, 39% are satisfied, and 13% could not assess. 61% are dissatisfied with the activities of Prime Minister O. Honcharuk, 19% are satisfied, and 21% could not assess. 70% are dissatisfied with the activities of the Verkhovna Rada, while only 15% are satisfied and 15% could not assess.
At the same time, residents of Ternopil are more satisfied with the local authorities. Thus, 68% are satisfied with the activities of Mayor S. Nadal, while 23% are dissatisfied. 52% are satisfied with the activities of the city council, 29% are dissatisfied, and 19% could not assess.
55% are satisfied with the operation of public transport in Ternopil, while 33% are dissatisfied and 12% could not assess. 45% are satisfied with educational institutions, 27% are dissatisfied, and 28% could not assess. Residents are rather dissatisfied with other areas of city life: 55% are dissatisfied with municipal services and 35% are satisfied; 56% are dissatisfied with medical institutions and 29% are satisfied.
A high level of electoral mobilization is observed among residents of Ternopil. About 80% of respondents stated their definite readiness to participate in both parliamentary and local elections.
The ranking of political parties in parliamentary elections is led by the Servant of the People party, with 29.9% among those who have decided and intend to vote. 19.0% are ready to vote for the European Solidarity party. The Strength and Honor party is supported by 7.9%, Svoboda by 7.3%, Holos by 6.7%, and Batkivshchyna by 6.1%. The ratings of other political forces are below 3%. Nearly one third are undecided.
In the ranking of political parties in local elections, the Servant of the People party is also the leader, supported by 27.4% of those who have decided and intend to vote. 17.4% support the Svoboda party, 13.3% the European Solidarity party, 7.7% Strength and Honor, 7.1% Holos, 4.7% Batkivshchyna, 3.6% Civic Position, and 3.2% Samopomich. The ratings of other parties are below 3%. About one third are undecided.
Among mayoral candidates, the leader in the ranking is S. Nadal, who would be supported by 60.8% of those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections. 6.1% could support S. Barna or V. Hevko, 4.3% P. Landiak, and 3.4% M. Ratushniak. The ratings of other candidates are below 3%. About 20% are undecided.
Modeling of the second round of mayoral elections showed that if S. Nadal were to face any of the other potential candidates, the incumbent mayor would win. In a pair with V. Hevko the result would be 59% versus 16%; with S. Barna 60% versus 12%; with M. Cherkashyn 60% versus 11%. At the same time, it should be taken into account that from a quarter to one third of respondents have not yet decided on their choice or do not want to participate in voting in these second-round combinations.
75% of respondents believe that during the current term of S. Nadal as mayor the situation in Ternopil has improved. 16% believe it has not changed, and only 3% state that it has worsened.
53% are convinced that as a result of local elections the situation in Ternopil will improve, 23% believe it will not change, and 23% could not answer. Only 1% expect deterioration.
The military conflict in eastern Ukraine tops the ranking of nationwide problems among residents of Ternopil at 68%. One third are concerned about bribery and corruption in government, the lack of jobs, or low wages and pensions. At the level of personal problems, residents are most concerned about low wages and pensions at 43%, the war in the East at 36%, and rising utility tariffs at 32%. A quarter are worried about bribery and corruption, 20% about rising prices for basic goods, 18% about unemployment, and 15% about the inability to obtain quality medical care.
Among city problems, respondents most often selected the cost of utility services at 42%. In addition, a significant share consider poor road conditions at 30%, chaotic construction of high-rise buildings at 22%, corruption in city authorities at 21%, traffic congestion at 19%, drug addiction and alcoholism at 16%, lack of parking spaces at 15%, the cost of public transport fares at 14%, the presence of stray animals on the streets at 13%, low professional qualifications of medical staff at 13%, the quality of public transport services at 11%, and poor condition of sidewalks and pedestrian paths at 11% to be problems.
According to residents of Ternopil, the main priorities for the work of city authorities should be medical institutions at 41%, the quality of housing and utility services at 37%, road quality at 30%, job creation at 26%, combating corruption at 23%, the quality of public transport at 21%, attracting investment to the city at 18%, and educational institutions at 18%. 15% believe that city authorities should first address waste collection and disposal, while 10–11% point to social protection of the poor, city safety, or sidewalks and adjacent territories.
Residents consider sidewalks and adjacent territories to be the main achievements of the current mayor S. Nadal at 58%. Other achievements include road quality at 31%, renovation of parks and squares at 24%, street lighting at 17%, the quality of public transport at 16%, and the availability of sports facilities at 16%.
91% of respondents consider the city comfortable for tourism, 82% for living, and 75% for recreation. 44% consider Ternopil comfortable for work, while almost the same share hold the opposite view. An absolute majority of residents at 94% are proud to live in Ternopil.
46% of respondents stated that among their close relatives there are those who are currently working abroad. One quarter stated that they themselves had worked abroad during the past five years. 14% plan to go abroad for work this year. The highest share of those who have relatives working abroad, who have worked abroad themselves, or who express a desire to do so is among the youngest age group.
The main motive for labor migration, according to respondents, is the desire of migrant workers for a better life for themselves and their relatives at 58%. 12% state that labor migrants seek to realize their potential, while 27% believe that this group does not see a future in Ukraine.
About 40% of respondents stated that they live with children of different ages.
41% stated that they have lived in Ternopil since birth, 43% have lived in the city for more than 10 years, 8% for 5 to 10 years, and 6% for less than 5 years.
87% of residents of Ternopil stated that they live in their own housing, while 13% live in rented accommodation. The latter are most common among the youngest age group and those who have lived in Ternopil for less than 10 years.

Methodology

Audience: residents of Ternopil aged 18 and older. The sample is representative by age and gender.
Sample size: 800 respondents.
Survey method: face-to-face personal interviews.
Margin of sampling error: no more than 3.5%.
Fieldwork dates: February 5–11, 2020.

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