“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Chernihiv Region

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12.12.2018

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Chernihiv Region

Within the framework of the “Portraits of Regions” project, the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Chernihiv region from November 16 to December 4, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the method of face-to-face interviews. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole significantly worse than the situation at the local level.
Only 8% assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 37% consider the situation in the region to be calm and 55% see the situation in their city or village as calm. Almost 69% of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 16% as critical. At the local level, assessments of the situation are somewhat better: between 30% and 40% see the situation as tense, and only about 3% consider it critical.
Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction (12%) worse than that of the region (16%) or their city or village (31%). Evaluations of the direction of development of both the country and the region are especially critical among residents of small towns and villages. At the same time, in their own localities rural residents assess the situation somewhat better than those living in small towns.
At the same time, despite negative assessments of the current situation, general expectations among residents of the region are rather positive-neutral. Only 15–20% believe that the situation, both in Ukraine and locally, will worsen next year. The overwhelming majority believe that it will not change, and one in ten has optimistic expectations about the future.
The military conflict in eastern Ukraine (80%) and bribery and corruption in government (49%) are the two main nationwide problems according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about low wages and pensions (66%), rising utility tariffs (52%), and rising prices for basic goods and inflation (46%). Socio-economic problems such as low wages and pensions, unemployment, inflation, and insufficient social protection are felt more acutely in small towns and villages.
The leader of the presidential rating is Yuliia Tymoshenko, whom 26.8% of those who have decided and intend to vote are ready to support. Oleh Liashko is supported by 17.9%, Volodymyr Zelenskyi by 12.8%, Petro Poroshenko by 8.8%, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 7.7%, and Yurii Boiko by 7.4%. Other candidates have ratings below 4%. Almost one in five residents of the region has not yet decided on a candidate.
Every fifth respondent believes that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has increased by one and a half times. Eleven percent are confident in the victory of Petro Poroshenko (13% last year). About 9% see Oleh Liashko winning. No more than 5% believe in a positive result for other candidates. Confidence in favorites is mainly expressed by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko, Petro Poroshenko, and Oleh Liashko.
The negative rating is led by Petro Poroshenko. Almost 66% of respondents would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 26.6% of those who have decided and intend to vote. The Radical Party is supported by 19.1%, Servant of the People by 10.5%, Civic Position by 8.1%, European Solidarity by 6.9%, the Opposition Bloc by 6.4%, the Agrarian Party by 3.9%, and UKROP by 3.1%. Other parties have ratings below 3%. At the same time, almost one in five residents of the region has not decided on a party choice.
The candidate’s socio-economic program (70%), orientation toward closer cooperation with the European Union (68%), experience in public office (66%), and leadership qualities (64%) are motives that significantly influence respondents’ presidential choice. For 55%, it is important that the candidate focuses primarily on solving national problems, while 37% stated that the ability to solve both national and local problems is more important. The choice between a politician’s ability to ensure radical change (43%) or, conversely, to stabilize the situation (51%) divided respondents almost evenly. The latter motive is dominant among supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko, Yurii Boiko, and Anatolii Hrytsenko.
Thirty-four percent of respondents do not expect any changes in the country after the upcoming elections. At the same time, 29% believe that the situation will improve, and only 14% say it will worsen. Twenty-three percent were unable to answer this question. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko, Petro Poroshenko, and Yurii Boiko more often expect positive changes. Those expecting deterioration are more common among respondents who do not intend to vote or have not decided on their choice.
Almost half of respondents (48%) allow for the possibility of significant falsifications in the presidential elections at the national level. At the local level, expectations of violations are significantly lower: 28% allow for significant falsifications at the regional level, and 22% at the level of the city or village.
At the same time, 14% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Thirty-eight percent take a neutral position on this issue, while 45% oppose this type of campaigning. A more favorable attitude toward the distribution of assistance by candidates is observed in Chernihiv city and among older and poorer respondents.
Residents of the region assess the activity of local authorities significantly better than that of central authorities. Ten percent of respondents are satisfied with the activity of President Petro Poroshenko, 12% are satisfied with the activity of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and only 6% with the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, more than 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the activity of central authorities. More critical assessments are observed in rural areas.
Over the year, the level of satisfaction with the activity of the regional state administration decreased somewhat, from 41% to 30%, as did satisfaction with city and village heads, from 62% to 50%. Local leaders are rated very positively in Chernihiv city and in villages. In small towns, dissatisfaction with local leaders outweighs satisfaction.
Respondents more often perceive an increase in corruption nationwide than in the region or at their place of residence. Almost two thirds of respondents believe that the situation with bribery has not changed at either the central or local levels. Only 6% reported a decrease in corruption.
The overwhelming majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the situation in various sectors and services. In annual dynamics, most indicators show either negative trends or no change. Exceptions include personal safety and the fight against crime, where assessments have improved over the year. Relatively better evaluations are given to school education, safety, and road conditions. The worst assessments concern healthcare, social protection, and industrial development.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated opportunities for recreation and leisure and the ability to live safely highest. The lowest ratings were given to opportunities to find a job. Opportunities for recreation, achieving success, finding a job, and entrepreneurship are rated relatively higher by residents of the regional center, while the ability to live safely is rated higher in villages. Wealthier respondents rate all opportunities higher than poorer ones.
Only about 2% see high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their city or village over the next 5–10 years. About one quarter assess the potential as medium. Half see low potential, and 5% see no opportunities for economic growth at either the national or local level. Residents of the regional center assess development potential at all levels more optimistically.
An absolute majority of respondents (73%) feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine, while 14% hold the opposite view. Respondents feel somewhat more pride in being residents of their city or village (78%). The most frequent sources of pride in the region are nature (55%) and history (45%). Thirty percent are proud of local residents, 27% of regional traditions, 22% of culture and art, 20% each of landmarks and agriculture, 16% of natural resources, and 10% of notable local figures.
Almost 60% consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while 19% hold the opposite view. Urban residents, younger respondents, and wealthier individuals more often report personal happiness. On the other hand, one in five village residents and one in four representatives of the older generation consider themselves unhappy. Among the poor, as many as 40% feel unhappy.
Residents of the region more often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Kyiv, Poltava, and Sumy regions. Among neighboring countries, residents feel the greatest closeness to Belarus, and somewhat less to Russia and Poland.
Twenty-nine percent expressed a desire to start their own business. Four percent reported that they are already entrepreneurs, while half of respondents do not intend to engage in business. A higher desire to start a business is observed among urban residents, younger respondents, and wealthier individuals. Among the latter, one in five stated that they are already engaged in entrepreneurship. Among those wishing to start a business, 31% would like to engage in trade, 11% each in construction and repair or car service, and 10% each in transport and logistics, catering, and entertainment and leisure.
Over the past year, the share of those wishing to work abroad increased from 22% to 33%. Only one third of them are ready to invest earned money in starting a business in Ukraine in the future. Higher migration intentions are observed among young people (66%), urban residents (36%), and respondents with middle income levels (43%).
Eighty percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Twelve percent support granting the Russian language official status in certain regions, and 3% support granting it state language status.
An absolute majority of respondents (73%) consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine. Only 12% hold the opposite view, and 15% were undecided.
Over the past year, the share of those supporting Ukraine’s accession to the European Union increased somewhat, from 44% to 47%. Support for NATO membership remained almost unchanged at 38%. Among different vectors of foreign economic integration, the pro-European direction leads at 45%. Thirty-seven percent support Ukraine’s equidistance from Russia and the West, and only 5% support accession to the Customs Union.

Methodology

On November, 16 – December, 4, 2018, within the framework of the project "Portraits of the Regions", the Rating Group has carried out a survey among the residents of Chernihiv region.
In general, 1,600 respondents took part in the research conducted with the use of personal interviewing method. The sample is based on the age and gender structure of the region, taking into account the settlement type.
The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.

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