“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Chernivtsi Region

Press

Download report (UKR)

19.12.2018

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Chernivtsi Region

Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Chernivtsi region between November 16 and December 5, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole significantly worse than the situation at the local level.
Only 7% of respondents assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while one third of respondents consider the situation in their home region to be calm and almost half perceive the situation in their own city or village as calm. More than 60% of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and one quarter describe it as critical. At the local level, assessments are somewhat better: between 31% and 42% of respondents see the situation as tense, while one in ten considers it critical.
Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the direction of development of the country significantly worse, at 12%, than that of the region, at 20%, or their own city or village, at 27%. While assessments of the country’s direction of development are almost equally critical among residents of different types of settlements, negative assessments of the direction of development at the local level are significantly more common among residents of the regional center.
At the same time, despite negative assessments of the current situation, overall expectations among residents of the region are rather positive-neutral. Between 22% and 25% have optimistic expectations for the future, most notably regarding their own settlement. Between 43% and 44% believe that the situation will not change. At the same time, 13–18% of respondents believe that the situation both in Ukraine and locally will worsen in the coming year.
The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine, cited by 67% of respondents, and bribery and corruption in government, cited by 45%, are the two main nationwide problems according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about rising utility tariffs and low wages and pensions, cited by 53% and 51% respectively. These problems concern residents of the entire region equally, while rising prices for basic goods are somewhat more significant for residents of small towns, and bribery and corruption in government are more significant for residents of the regional center.
The leader of the presidential rating in the region is Yuliia Tymoshenko, supported by 21.1% of those who have decided and intend to vote. Petro Poroshenko is supported by 11.9%, Yurii Boiko and Volodymyr Zelenskyi by 10.7% and 10.5% respectively, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 8.8%, Oleh Liashko by 8.2%, Oleksandr Shevchenko by 7.3%, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk by 6.2%, and Andrii Sadovyi and Arsenii Yatseniuk by 4.1% each. Other candidates have ratings below 3%. At the same time, 16.6% of residents of the region have not decided on a candidate.
Seventeen point seven percent of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has almost doubled. One in ten respondents is confident in a victory by Petro Poroshenko, which is more than one and a half times lower than last year’s figure of 17%. Six percent of respondents see Yurii Boiko and Volodymyr Zelenskyi as potential winners. Fewer than 5% believe in a positive outcome for other candidates. The greatest confidence in their favorites is demonstrated by supporters of Tymoshenko, Poroshenko, and Boiko.
Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. Almost 44% of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna is the leader, supported by 22.4% of those who have decided and intend to vote. The party “Servant of the People” is supported by 12.2%, Bloc Petro Poroshenko “Solidarity” and the Opposition Bloc by 11% each, Civic Position and the Radical Party by 8.9% and 8.3% respectively, UKROP by 6.5%, and the People’s Front and Samopomich by 4.8% each. Other parties have ratings below 3%. At the same time, almost 19% of residents of the region have not decided on a party, and one in ten does not intend to vote.
Orientation of a candidate toward closer cooperation with the European Union, cited by 84%, is the motive that has the strongest determining influence on respondents’ presidential choice. For two thirds, the candidate’s socio-economic program is significant, while for 29%, ideological views are more important. For 60%, personal leadership qualities and orientation toward solving nationwide problems are important, while for 31–35%, the presence of a strong team and orientation toward solving both national and regional problems matter more. Fifty-five percent focus on the candidate’s ability to ensure radical changes in the country, while 40% say that maintaining stability is more important to them. Fifty-seven percent choose based on the candidate’s experience in state politics, while 35%, on the contrary, are attracted by the candidate’s belonging to a new generation of politicians.
More than one third of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will improve as a result of the upcoming presidential elections. The same share believes that the situation will not change, while one in ten says it will worsen, and another one in five is undecided. Supporters of Tymoshenko, Zelenskyi, and Poroshenko expect positive changes more often than others. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who are undecided or do not intend to vote. Moreover, more than 40% of the latter expect the situation to worsen as a result of the elections.
According to respondents, the likelihood of electoral fraud in presidential elections is higher at the national level, cited by 50%, than at the local level, cited by 35–40%. An additional 27–32% allow for the possibility of minor falsifications at all levels.
One in ten respondents has a positive attitude toward situations in which politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Almost 20% take a neutral position on this issue. On the other hand, two thirds oppose this form of campaigning. Representatives of the oldest age group are somewhat more favorable toward candidates distributing assistance.
Residents of the region assess the work of local authorities significantly better than that of the central authorities. Only one in ten respondents is satisfied with the work of President Petro Poroshenko, Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. At the same time, more than 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the central authorities.
Over the past year, the level of satisfaction with the work of the regional state administration decreased from 30% to 22%, as did satisfaction with the work of city or village heads, from 38% to 34%. The most critical attitudes toward local authorities are expressed by residents of the regional center.
Respondents notice an increase in corruption more often at the national level than in the region or at their place of residence. More than half of respondents believe that the situation with bribery has not changed at either the central or local levels. Only 2–4% reported a decrease in corruption at the national and regional levels, while at the level of their own settlement, one in ten respondents reported such a decrease.
The vast majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in various sectors and services. Relatively better assessments were recorded for school education and road conditions. Over the year, negative dynamics were observed for most criteria, most notably in school education, healthcare, ecology, and the fight against bribery. Road conditions are an exception, as assessments in this area have improved. The worst evaluations concern the fight against corruption at the local level.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the ability to rest and spend leisure time the highest, and engaging in entrepreneurship the lowest. Opportunities for leisure, personal safety, achieving success, job search, and entrepreneurship are rated relatively higher by residents of the regional center. The lowest assessments across all opportunities are given by the oldest and poorest respondents.
Only 6–8% of respondents see high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their own city or village over the next 5–10 years. About 40% assess the potential as moderate. At the same time, 28–32% see low economic development potential, and one in ten sees no prospects for economic growth at all, especially for Ukraine. Younger people are naturally more optimistic in their assessments.
An absolute majority of respondents feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine, at 81%, and especially residents of their region, at 84%, and their city or village, at 87%. Most often, respondents cited local traditions, at 41%, as a source of regional pride, while about one quarter are proud of the region’s history and nature. One in five is proud of local residents, culture, and art, and 17% of notable figures from the region.
The vast majority of respondents, 80%, consider themselves definitely or rather happy, while almost one in ten holds the opposite view. Feelings of personal happiness are more common among younger and wealthier respondents, as well as residents of small towns and villages.
Forty percent of respondents noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Ivano-Frankivsk region, while almost one quarter indicated closeness to Ternopil and Lviv regions. Among neighboring countries, residents of the region consider themselves closest to Romania, Poland, and Moldova.
More than one third of respondents expressed a desire to start their own business, especially among youth. At the same time, more than 40% do not have such intentions, with the lowest interest observed among the oldest age group and the poorest respondents. Five percent reported that they are already entrepreneurs, most often in the regional center, among middle-aged and wealthier respondents. Among the latter, one quarter stated that they already run their own business. Among those wishing to start a business, 41% would choose trade. Another 12% would choose public catering or farming, one in ten would choose tourism, construction and repairs, or auto service businesses.
Over the past year, the share of respondents wishing to work abroad has remained almost unchanged, at 42% in 2017 and 41% in 2018, while only one third of them are willing in the future to invest their earnings in starting a business in Ukraine. Thirty-nine percent are not willing to do so. Migration aspirations are highest among youth and middle-aged respondents, at 64% and 45% respectively, urban residents, at 42–44%, and respondents with a middle level of income, at 48%.
The vast majority of respondents, 71%, believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. One in five supports granting Russian official status in certain regions, and only 2% support granting Russian the status of a state language throughout Ukraine.
Almost 80% of respondents consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine. At the same time, one in ten holds the opposite view, and 11% are undecided.
Over the past year, the share of those supporting Ukraine’s accession to the European Union increased slightly from 68% to 70%, while the level of support for NATO integration remained unchanged at 59%. Among different directions of foreign economic integration, the pro-European vector remains dominant, although its dynamics are somewhat negative, decreasing from 67% to 65%. The share of those supporting equidistance between Ukraine and both Russia and the West increased from 15% to 18%. Support for accession to the Customs Union is currently only 2%, which is three times lower than in the previous year.

Methodology

On November, 16 – December, 5, 2018, within the framework of the project "Portraits of the Regions", the Rating Group has carried out a survey among the residents of Chernivtsy region.
In general, 1,600 respondents took part in the research conducted with the use of personal interviewing method.
The sample is based on the age and gender structure of the region, taking into account the settlement type.
The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.

Download report (UKR)