“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Dnipropetrovsk Region

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13.12.2018

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Dnipropetrovsk Region

Within the framework of the “Portraits of Regions” project, the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Dnipropetrovsk region from November 16 to December 2, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the method of face-to-face interviews. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole worse than the situation at the local level.
Only 6% assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 30% consider the situation in the region to be calm and 40% see the situation in their city or village as calm. Fifty percent of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 40% as critical. At the local level, assessments are better: between 35% and 42% see the situation as tense, and about 20% consider it critical.
Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction (12%) worse than that of the region (21%) or their city or village (26%). Residents of the regional center assess local affairs better than the overall situation in the country, while a more critical attitude toward local affairs is expressed by residents of other cities in the region.
At the same time, despite negative assessments of the current situation, general expectations among residents of the region are rather neutral-positive. Only 16–18% believe that the situation in Ukraine and at the local level will worsen next year. Half believe it will not change, while between 16% and 19% have optimistic expectations about the future.
The military conflict in eastern Ukraine (70%) is the main nationwide problem according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about rising utility tariffs (51%), low wages and pensions (48%), and the war in Donbas (41%). Problems such as bribery and corruption in government, low wages and pensions, and rising utility tariffs are felt more acutely in rural areas.
The leader of the presidential rating is Yuliia Tymoshenko, whom 21.8% of those who have decided and intend to vote are ready to support. Volodymyr Zelenskyi is supported by 17.0%, Yurii Boiko by 14.0%, Petro Poroshenko by 8.8%, Yevhenii Murayev by 6.0%, Oleh Liashko by 5.2%, and Anatolii Hrytsenko by 4.7%. Other candidates have ratings below 3%. At the same time, more than a quarter of residents of the region have not decided on a candidate.
One in five respondents believes that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has tripled. As last year, 9% are confident in the victory of Petro Poroshenko. About 7% see Volodymyr Zelenskyi winning, and 5% Yurii Boiko. No more than 2% believe in the victory of other candidates. Confidence in favorites is mainly expressed by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
The negative rating is led by Petro Poroshenko. Almost 60% of respondents would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 21.1% of those who have decided and intend to vote. Servant of the People is supported by 15.2%, the Opposition Bloc by 14.6%, the “For Life” party by 6.4%, European Solidarity by 5.5%, UKROP and the Radical Party by 5.3% each, the “Nashi” party by 4.4%, and Civic Position by 3.6%. Other parties have ratings below 2%. At the same time, almost one in five residents of the region has not decided on a party.
A socio-economic program (69%) and orientation toward solving the country’s problems (63%) are motives that significantly influence respondents’ presidential choice. For 58%, the candidate’s ability to ensure stability in the country is important, while 36% stated that ensuring radical change is more important to them. Orientation toward cooperation with the EU is important for 54%, while for 24% orientation toward cooperation with Russia is more important. Forty-nine percent choose a candidate primarily because of leadership qualities, while for 40% the presence of a strong team is more important. For 48%, experience in public office is more important, while for 42% belonging to the generation of “new politicians” matters more. The latter motive is dominant among supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Yevhenii Murayev.
Thirty-four percent of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will improve as a result of the upcoming presidential elections. Thirty-five percent believe that the situation will not change, and only 13% believe it will worsen. Supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi, Yuliia Tymoshenko, and Petro Poroshenko more often expect positive changes. Those who do not intend to vote more often expect deterioration.
Two thirds of respondents expect significant election fraud in the presidential elections at both the national and local levels. One in four believes that falsifications will be minor, and fewer than 10% believe the elections will be fair.
At the same time, 13% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Twenty percent take a neutral position, while 64% oppose this type of campaigning. A more favorable attitude toward the distribution of assistance by candidates is observed in the regional center and among the youngest respondents.
Residents of the region assess the activity of local authorities significantly better than that of central authorities. Thirteen percent of respondents are satisfied with the activity of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, 12% with President Petro Poroshenko, and only 5% with the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, more than 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the activity of the President and the Prime Minister, and almost 90% with Parliament. More critical assessments are observed in cities of the region.
Over the year, the level of satisfaction with the activity of the regional state administration and city or village heads has practically not changed. Satisfaction with local heads is higher among residents of Dnipro and villages than in other cities of the region. Activity of the regional state administration is rated more positively in the regional center.
Almost half of respondents believe that the level of corruption has increased both at the national and local levels. Thirty percent believe that the situation with bribery has not changed. Only 4–6% reported a decrease in corruption.
The overwhelming majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the situation in various sectors and services. In annual dynamics, most indicators show negative trends or no change. The situation in school education and the condition of roads is assessed relatively better. Respondents speak most negatively about the fight against bribery at the local level.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the possibility of finding a job and leisure and recreation the highest, and engaging in entrepreneurship the lowest. Residents of the regional center, younger respondents, and wealthier respondents rate all opportunities higher.
One in ten sees high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their city or village over the next 5–10 years. About one third assess this potential as medium. Almost the same share see low potential, while 11–13% see no opportunities for economic growth at any level. Younger and middle-aged respondents assess economic potential somewhat better, while rural residents are more critical regarding the potential of their own locality.
Sixty-seven percent feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine. Slightly more feel proud to be residents of their region (72%) and of their city or village (74%). Pride increases with age. The most common sources of regional pride are nature (35%) and local history (31%). Twenty-one percent are proud of industry, 18% of local residents, 16% of natural resources, 14% of culture and sports achievements, 13% of landmarks, and 12% of regional traditions.
More than 70% consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while a quarter of respondents hold the opposite view. Younger and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. At the same time, one in three representatives of the older generation consider themselves unhappy.
Residents of the region more often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Zaporizhzhia region. Among neighboring countries, respondents consider themselves closest to Belarus, Russia, and Poland.
Thirty-five percent expressed a desire to start their own business. Nine percent reported that they are already entrepreneurs. Almost half stated that they do not want to run their own business. A higher desire to become an entrepreneur is observed among residents of the regional center, younger respondents, and wealthier individuals. Among the latter, one quarter reported that they already run a business. Among those wishing to start a business, 35% would like to engage in trade, 10% in farming, 9% in construction and repair, and 8% in entertainment and leisure.
Over the past year, the share of those wishing to work abroad increased slightly from 31% to 35%. Fifty-four percent of them are ready to invest earned money in starting a business in Ukraine in the future. Traditionally, higher migration intentions are observed among young people (55%), residents of cities in the region (about one third), and wealthier and middle-income respondents (about 40%).
Fifty-two percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Thirty-six percent support granting Russian the status of a state language, and another 10% support granting Russian official status in certain regions.
Half of respondents (52%) consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine, while 34% hold the opposite view.
Over the past year, the share of those opposing Ukraine’s accession to the European Union increased from 25% to 32%, and to NATO from 37% to 43%. At the same time, the number of supporters of the pro-Western vector has remained almost unchanged (46% for EU accession and 32% for NATO). The share of those supporting Ukraine’s equidistance from the EU and Russia has also increased from 30% to 34%.

Methodology

On November, 16 – December, 2, 2018, within the framework of the project "Portraits of the Regions", the Rating Group has carried out a survey among the residents of Dnipro region.
In general, 1,600 respondents took part in the research conducted with the use of personal interviewing method. The sample is based on the age and gender structure of the region, taking into account the settlement type.
The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.

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