“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Kharkiv Region

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12.12.2018

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Kharkiv Region

Within the framework of the “Portraits of Regions” project, the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Kharkiv region from November 16 to December 4, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the method of face-to-face interviews. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole significantly worse than the situation at the local level.
Only 6% assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 33% consider the situation in the region to be calm and 45% see the situation in their city or village as calm. Fifty-four percent of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 37% as critical. Half of respondents assess the situation in the region as tense, and another 13% as critical. Assessments of the situation in respondents’ own cities are better: 36% see it as tense and 15% as critical.
Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction (14%) worse than that of the region (34%) or their city or village (40%). The direction of the country’s development is assessed most negatively in Kharkiv city and in rural areas, while the local situation is evaluated most critically by residents of small towns.
General expectations among residents of the region are rather negative-neutral. Only one in ten believes that the situation in Ukraine will improve next year. Expectations regarding the local situation are somewhat more optimistic: 14% expect improvement in the region and 17% in their city or village. At the same time, about half believe that the situation will not change at any level, while about one quarter have pessimistic expectations regarding the future of Ukraine, and one quarter regarding the region or their place of residence.
The military conflict in eastern Ukraine (66%) is the main nationwide problem according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about rising utility tariffs (55%), low wages and pensions (50%), and rising prices for basic goods (44%). Most problems are felt more acutely in small towns and rural areas than in the regional center.
The leader of the presidential rating is Yurii Boiko, whom 19.8% of those who have decided and intend to vote are ready to support. Yuliia Tymoshenko and Volodymyr Zelenskyi are each supported by 15.5%, Yevhenii Murayev by 11.5%, Petro Poroshenko by 9.0%, Vadym Rabinovych by 6.5%, and Oleh Liashko by 4.5%. Other candidates have ratings below 4%. At the same time, every fourth resident of the region has not decided on a candidate, and every seventh does not intend to vote.
At the same time, 19.5% of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has increased fivefold. Fourteen point one percent are confident in the victory of Petro Poroshenko (compared to 7% in 2017). About 4.8% see Yurii Boiko winning, and 4.3% Volodymyr Zelenskyi. No more than 3% believe in the victory of other candidates. Confidence in favorites is mainly expressed by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
The negative rating is led by Petro Poroshenko. Almost 61% of respondents would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, the Opposition Bloc leads with the support of 16.4% of those who have decided and intend to vote. Batkivshchyna is supported by 14.3%, Servant of the People by 12.6%, the “Nashi” party by 10.9%, European Solidarity by 9.0%, For Life by 8.7%, Revival by 8.3%, and the Radical Party by 4.0%. Other parties have ratings below 3%. At the same time, one quarter of residents of the region have not decided on a party choice, and one in six does not intend to vote.
The candidate’s socio-economic program and personal leadership qualities (59% each) are motives that significantly influence respondents’ presidential choice. At the same time, the presence of a strong team is important for 32% of respondents, and ideological views for 31%. Fifty-two percent expect a politician to be able to ensure stability in the country, while for 38% the desire to implement change is more important. Fifty-one percent choose a candidate primarily because of their orientation toward solving the country’s problems, while for 40% orientation toward solving both national and regional problems is important. For 47%, experience in public office matters, while 40% stated that belonging to the generation of “new politicians” is more important. The latter motive is dominant among supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Yevhenii Murayev. For 44%, orientation toward cooperation with the European Union is important, while for 30% cooperation with Russia is more important, and one quarter have not decided on this issue.
Thirty-three percent of respondents believe that the situation in Ukraine will not change as a result of the upcoming presidential elections, while 22% expect deterioration. On the other hand, 29% expect improvement. The largest share of those expecting improvement are among supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who have not decided or do not intend to vote. Half of those who do not intend to vote have negative expectations.
According to respondents, the likelihood of election fraud in the presidential elections is higher at the national level (53%) than at the local level (48% in the region and 43% in the city or village). About one third also allow for minor falsifications at all levels.
At the same time, 25% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Another 26% take a neutral position, while 46% oppose this type of campaigning. Vote-buying is more strongly condemned by residents of small towns and respondents of the middle age group.
Residents of the region assess the activity of local authorities significantly better than that of central authorities. Only 14% are satisfied with the activity of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, 9% with President Petro Poroshenko, and 8% with the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, about 90% expressed dissatisfaction with the activity of central authorities.
Over the year, the level of satisfaction with the activity of the regional state administration and local heads increased: satisfaction with the regional administration rose from 29% to 40%, and with local leaders from 52% to 56%. Satisfaction with the regional administration and the mayor is highest among residents of Kharkiv city.
Respondents more often perceive an increase in the level of corruption nationwide (45%) than in the region (34%) or at their place of residence (30%). About half of respondents believe that the level of bribery has not changed at either the central or local levels. Only 4–6% reported a decrease in corruption.
The overwhelming majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the situation in various sectors and services. Relatively better assessments were given to the condition of roads, the environment, school education, and personal safety. The worst assessments concern the fight against bribery at the local level. In annual dynamics, improvements in assessments are observed for most indicators, especially regarding road conditions and personal safety.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the possibility of leisure and recreation highest, and engaging in entrepreneurship lowest. Opportunities for recreation, achieving success, finding a job, and entrepreneurship were rated higher in the regional center, while personal safety was rated higher in small towns and villages. Younger and wealthier respondents rate all opportunities higher.
Respondents assess the economic development potential at the local level somewhat better than that of Ukraine as a whole. Only 7% see high economic development potential for Ukraine over the next 5–10 years. One quarter assess it as medium, while almost 40% see low potential and 17% see no opportunities for economic growth at all. In contrast, one in ten sees significant development potential locally, one third assess it as medium, one third as low, and one in ten see no potential. Residents of Kharkiv city assess the development potential of their city most positively.
Half of respondents (52%) feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine, while 41% hold the opposite view. Significantly more feel proud to be residents of their region (76%) and of their city or village (82%). The most common sources of regional pride are nature (38%). Culture and art and history are each cited by 30%, landmarks by 29%, local residents by 28%, natural resources, science, and education by 23% each, regional traditions by 20%, sports achievements by 15%, prominent individuals by 13%, and industry by 12%.
Almost 70% consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while one quarter hold the opposite view. Younger and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. At the same time, one in three representatives of the older generation consider themselves unhappy, and among the poor this share reaches 44%.
Residents of the region more often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Poltava region. Among neighboring countries, respondents consider Belarus and Russia to be closest.
Thirty percent expressed a desire to start their own business. Eight percent reported that they are already entrepreneurs, while 56% stated that they do not have such a desire. A higher desire to start a business is observed among residents of the regional center, younger respondents, and wealthier individuals. Among the latter, one quarter reported that they already run a business. Among those wishing to start a business, 29% would like to engage in trade, 15% in tourism, 14% in the beauty and health industry, 11% in entertainment and leisure or transport services, 10% in the IT sector, and 9% in farming or construction and repair.
Over the past year, the share of those wishing to work abroad increased from 24% to 35%. Fifty-seven percent of them are ready to invest earned money in starting a business in Ukraine in the future, while 34% are not. Higher migration intentions are traditionally observed among young people (54%), city residents (35–37%), and respondents with middle and high incomes (44–45%).
Thirty-seven percent support granting the Russian language state status, 31% support granting it official status in certain regions, while 28% believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language.
Forty-eight percent of respondents do not consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine, while 35% hold the opposite view and 17% were unable to answer.
The number of supporters of the pro-Western vector is smaller than the number of opponents, although the share of opponents decreased over the year. Thus, 35% support Ukraine’s accession to the European Union (33% in 2017), while 44% do not support it (49% in 2017). Twenty-four percent support accession to NATO (22% in 2017), while 56% do not support it (60% in 2017). Among different vectors of foreign economic integration, equidistance from Russia and the West continues to lead (36%). Twenty percent support accession to the Customs Union.
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Methodology

On November, 16 – December, 4, 2018, within the framework of the project "Portraits of the Regions", the Rating Group has carried out a survey among the residents of Kharkiv region.
In general, 1,600 respondents took part in the research conducted with the use of personal interviewing method. The sample is based on the age and gender structure of the region, taking into account the settlement type.
The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.

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