“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Ivano-Frankivsk Region

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19.12.2018

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Ivano-Frankivsk Region

Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Ivano-Frankivsk region between November 16 and December 4, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole significantly worse than the situation at the local level.
Only 3% assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 35% consider the situation calm in their home region and half of respondents in their own city or village. Two thirds of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 27% as critical. At the local level, assessments are somewhat better: between 39% and 51% consider the situation tense, while only 6–9% describe it as critical.
Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction of development more negatively, at 13%, than that of the region, at 25%, or their own city or village, at 32%. Assessments of the direction of development of both the country and the region are particularly critical among rural residents, while attitudes toward the direction of development of one’s own city or village are almost equally critical among residents of small towns and villages. Across age groups, assessments are almost equal, though somewhat more negative views are expressed by middle-aged respondents.
At the same time, despite negative assessments of the current situation, overall expectations among residents of the region are rather positive-neutral. Only 10–13% of respondents believe that the situation both in Ukraine and at the local level will worsen next year. More than half believe it will remain unchanged, while every fifth respondent has optimistic expectations about the future.
The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine, cited by 68%, and bribery and corruption in government, cited by 43%, are the two main nationwide problems according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about low wages and pensions, cited by 50%, and rising utility tariffs, cited by 46%. Socio-economic problems such as low wages and pensions, rising prices, and tariffs are felt more acutely in the regional center, while corruption and unemployment are more pressing in small towns and villages.
The leaders of the presidential rating in the region are Yuliia Tymoshenko, supported by 22.5% of those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections, and Oleksandr Shevchenko, supported by 21.8%. Anatolii Hrytsenko is supported by 11.9%, Petro Poroshenko by 11.6%, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk by 8.7%, Volodymyr Zelenskyi by 7.6%, and Andrii Sadovyi by 4.4%. Other candidates have ratings below 3%. At the same time, 22.9% of residents of the region have not decided on their candidate choice.
Every fifth respondent in the region believes that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has increased by one third. Thirteen percent are confident in a victory by Petro Poroshenko, which is almost the same as last year’s figure of 11%. Oleksandr Shevchenko is seen as the winner by 9%, while Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Anatolii Hrytsenko are each cited by 4%. Fewer than 2% of respondents believe in a positive outcome for other candidates. The greatest confidence in their favorites is demonstrated by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. More than 40% of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 23% of those who have decided and intend to vote. The party UKROP is supported by 19.6%, Civic Position by 10.5%, Servant of the People by 9.3%, Bloc Petro Poroshenko “Solidarity” by 9%, and All-Ukrainian Union “Svoboda” and Self-Reliance by 8.8% and 8.2% respectively. Other parties have ratings below 3%. At the same time, every fifth resident of the region has not decided on a party choice, and every seventh does not intend to vote.
A candidate’s orientation toward closer cooperation with the European Union, cited by 90%, is the motive that has the most decisive influence on respondents’ presidential choice. For two thirds, the personal leadership qualities of the candidate are significant. For 59%, the candidate’s ability to ensure radical change in the country is important, while 36% state that ensuring stability is more important to them. Fifty-eight percent choose based on the candidate’s socio-economic program and the same share based on the candidate’s orientation toward solving national problems in general, while for 35–37% ideological views and the candidate’s focus on solving both national and regional problems are more important. The choice between experience in state politics and belonging to the generation of “new politicians” stands at 56% versus 37%. The latter motive dominates among supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, and Oleksandr Shevchenko.
Almost one third of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will improve as a result of the upcoming presidential elections. A slightly larger share of respondents, at 35%, believe that the situation will not change, while 15% claim that it will worsen. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, and Petro Poroshenko expect positive changes more often than others. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who are undecided or do not intend to vote. Almost half of the latter expect the situation to worsen as a result of the elections.
According to respondents, the likelihood of electoral fraud in the presidential elections at the national level, at 49%, is higher than at the local level, at 32%. Another approximately 40% allow for minor falsifications at all levels.
Every tenth respondent has a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Seventeen percent take a neutral position on this issue. Seventy percent oppose this type of campaigning. Residents of the regional center are more favorable toward candidates distributing assistance.
Residents of the region assess the performance of local authorities significantly better than that of central authorities. Thus, only 13% of respondents are satisfied with the performance of President Petro Poroshenko, nearly the same share are satisfied with the performance of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and only 5% with the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, more than 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the performance of central authorities. Assessments are somewhat less critical in small towns.
Over the year, the level of satisfaction with the performance of the regional state administration decreased slightly, from 27% to 23%, while satisfaction with the performance of city or village heads, on the contrary, increased somewhat, from 41% to 46%. Residents of the regional center are the most satisfied with the performance of local leaders, with their share exceeding 60%.
Respondents more often notice an increase in corruption overall in Ukraine than in the region or at their place of residence. About half of respondents believe that the situation with bribery has not changed at either the central or local level. Only between 5% and 9% reported a decrease in corruption.
The vast majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in various sectors and services. Relatively better assessments are given to personal safety and crime prevention, school education, and the condition of roads. In year-on-year dynamics, most criteria show negative trends, particularly in school education and the fight against bribery, or no change at all. An exception is agricultural development, where assessments have improved. At present, respondents express the most negative views regarding the state of the environment and forest conservation.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the ability to rest and spend leisure time, as well as to live safely, the highest. The opportunity to engage in entrepreneurship was rated the lowest. Opportunities for recreation, achieving success, finding a job, and entrepreneurship are assessed relatively higher by residents of the regional center. The lowest assessments across all opportunities are given by the oldest and poorest respondents.
Every tenth respondent sees high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their city or village over the next 5–10 years. About 40% assess the potential as moderate. Only about one third see low potential, while 5–6% see no prospects for economic growth at all, both nationwide and locally. Residents of the regional center and young people assess growth potential less critically.
The absolute majority of respondents, at 86–87%, feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine and residents of their region and their city or village. Most often, respondents cite traditions, nature, and the history of their region, at around 50%, as sources of pride. Nearly one third are proud of the culture and arts of their region. One in five takes pride in culinary traditions and local residents, while 13% cite notable people of the region.
Eighty percent consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while 14% hold the opposite view. Younger and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. On the other hand, every fifth older person and every third respondent with a low income consider themselves unhappy.
More than half of respondents in the region noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Lviv region, and about one third to residents of Ternopil region. Among neighboring countries, residents consider themselves closest to Poland.
One third of respondents expressed a desire to start their own business. Seven percent reported that they are already entrepreneurs. More such respondents are recorded in small towns, among middle-aged individuals and wealthier respondents. Among the latter, one in five stated that they already run their own business. Among those wishing to start a business, 32% would like to engage in trade. Another 17% are interested in tourism, 11% each in the hotel business and the beauty and wellness industry, and 10% in construction as well as entertainment and leisure.
Over the past year, the share of those wishing to work abroad has changed little, increasing from 44% to 46%, while half of them are ready in the future to invest their earnings in starting a business in Ukraine, and 35% are not. Migration intentions are higher among youth and middle-aged respondents, at 63% and 57% respectively, residents of small towns, at 51%, and respondents with high and medium income levels, at around 50%.
The absolute majority, at 94%, believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Similarly, the same share of respondents consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine.
Over the past year, the share of those supporting Ukraine’s accession to the European Union decreased slightly, from 89% to 87%, while support for integration into NATO fell significantly, from 87% to 78%. Among various directions of foreign economic integration, the pro-European vector remains dominant. At the same time, the dynamics here are negative, declining from 89% to 80%. The number of respondents who cannot decide on this issue has increased. Every tenth respondent continues to support Ukraine maintaining equal distance from both Russia and the West. Only 1% support accession to the Customs Union.
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Methodology

On November, 16 – December, 4, 2018, within the framework of the project "Portraits of the Regions", the Sociological Group "Rating" has carried out a survey among the residents of Ivano-Frankivsk region.
In general, 1,600 respondents took part in the research conducted with the use of personal interviewing method. The sample is based on the age and gender structure of the region, taking into account the settlement type.
The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.

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