18.12.2018
“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Kyiv
- Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of the city of Kyiv from November 16 to December 2, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents participated in the study, which was carried out using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the city. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
- Analysis of the survey results showed that Kyiv residents assess the situation in the country as a whole somewhat worse than the situation in their own city.
- Only 8% assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while at the city level almost one in five respondents consider the situation calm. At the same time, more than half of respondents view the situation both in the country and locally as tense, and every third to fourth respondent considers it critical and explosive.
- At the same time, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction of development almost equally both at the national level, at 20%, and at the level of their own city, at 23%. Assessments of development directions are somewhat less critical among representatives of the middle age group.
- At the same time, despite negative assessments of the state of affairs, overall expectations among Kyiv residents are rather positive-neutral. About 40% believe that the situation will not change, and one in six has optimistic expectations for the future. Nevertheless, one in five respondents expects that the situation both in Ukraine and in Kyiv will worsen next year.
- The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine, cited by 73%, is the main nationwide problem according to Kyiv residents. Thirty-nine percent also indicated bribery and corruption as a problem at the state level. At the personal level, in addition to the war in the East, cited by 37%, respondents are concerned about rising utility tariffs, cited by 39%, and low wages and pensions, cited by 35%. Socio-economic problems such as low wages and pensions, rising prices and tariffs, insufficient social protection, and the inability to receive quality medical care are more significant for the older generation, while problems related to the war in the East, corruption, unemployment, and unfavorable conditions for business development are more important for youth and people of middle age.
- The leader of the presidential rating is Yuliia Tymoshenko, whom 20.4% of those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections are ready to support. Fifteen point seven percent are ready to vote for Petro Poroshenko, 13.5% for Volodymyr Zelenskyi, 8.4% for Anatolii Hrytsenko, 7.7% for Yurii Boiko, 6.2% for Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, and 4.7% and 3.3% for Yevhenii Murayev and Oleh Liashko respectively. The rating of other candidates is below 3%. At the same time, almost a quarter of Kyiv respondents have not decided on a candidate, and one in six does not intend to vote.
- At the same time, almost 22% of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential elections, and over the past year the number of those convinced of her victory has doubled. Seventeen percent are confident in Petro Poroshenko’s victory, which is almost the same as last year’s figure of 18%. Five percent see Volodymyr Zelenskyi as the winner. Fewer than 2% believe in a positive outcome for other candidates. The greatest confidence in their favorites is demonstrated by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
- Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. More than 40% of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
- In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 20.8% of those who have decided and will participate in the elections. Thirteen point three percent are ready to vote for the Petro Poroshenko Bloc “Solidarity,” 12.3% for the Servant of the People party, 7.8% for Civic Position, 6.0% for the Opposition Bloc, 5% each for Samopomich and the Nashі party, and 3.6% and 3.2% respectively for Svoboda and the Radical Party. The rating of other parties is below 3%. At the same time, almost a quarter of city residents have not decided on a party choice, and the same share does not want to vote.
- A candidate’s orientation toward closer cooperation with the European Union, cited by 66%, and their focus on solving the country’s problems, cited by 65%, are motives that significantly influence respondents’ presidential choice. For 54% and 53% respectively, the candidate’s socio-economic program and personal leadership qualities are important, while for 27% and 26%, ideological views and the presence of a strong team are more important. Half of respondents choose a candidate primarily because of their experience in public policy, while for 38% belonging to the generation of “new” politicians is more important. The choice between the ability to ensure radical change or stability in the country split respondents almost evenly, with a slight tilt toward change, at 46% versus 40%.
- More than a quarter of respondents, at 28%, expect that the situation in Ukraine will improve as a result of the upcoming presidential elections. One third believe that the situation will not change, while 16% say it will worsen. Another quarter of respondents are uncertain in their forecasts. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko expect positive changes more often than others. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who have not decided or do not intend to vote. Among the latter, nearly 40% expect the situation to worsen as a result of the elections.
- According to respondents, the likelihood of falsifications in presidential elections is equally possible at both the national and local levels, at 45% and 43% respectively. Another third allow for minor falsifications.
- At the same time, 16% of Kyiv respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. One in five takes a neutral position on this issue. About 60% oppose this type of campaigning. The poorest segments of the population are more favorable toward candidates distributing assistance.
- City residents assess the performance of local authorities somewhat better than that of central authorities. Thus, only 18% of respondents are satisfied with the performance of President Petro Poroshenko, slightly fewer, at 16%, are satisfied with the performance of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and only 6% with the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, more than 70% expressed dissatisfaction with the activities of central government bodies.
- Over the year, the level of satisfaction with the performance of the city mayor has decreased, from 39% to 28%. Respondents from the younger age group are relatively more satisfied with the mayor’s performance.
- Respondents note an increase in the level of corruption equally both in Ukraine overall and in the city, at 38–39%. More than 40% of respondents believe that the situation with bribery has not changed either at the central or local levels. Only 6–7% reported a decrease in corruption.
- The overwhelming majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in various spheres and services. Relatively better assessments were given to school education and road conditions. At the same time, in year-on-year dynamics, a negative trend or lack of change is observed for the absolute majority of criteria. Assessments significantly worsened in the areas of school education, healthcare, ecology, and the fight against bribery. The latter sphere was rated the worst by respondents.
- Among opportunities in the city, respondents rated the opportunities to find a job, rest and spend leisure time, and achieve success the highest. The lowest ratings were given to living safely and engaging in entrepreneurship. Youth and wealthier respondents assess the level of opportunities most positively.
- Eleven to thirteen percent of Kyiv residents see high economic development potential for Ukraine and their city over the next 5–10 years. Almost one third assess it as moderate. The same share assess this potential as rather low, and 9% see no prospects for economic growth at all, either in Ukraine as a whole or in Kyiv specifically. People of middle age assess growth potential somewhat more critically.
- The overwhelming majority of respondents, at 70%, feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine, and an even larger share, at 74%, are proud to be residents of Kyiv. Most often, respondents cite the city’s history as the object of pride, at 52%. Forty percent are proud of nature, one third of culture and art, and one quarter of landmarks. One in five is proud of culinary and local traditions, and another 15–16% of local residents and sports achievements.
- Seventy percent consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while one in five holds the opposite view. Naturally, younger and wealthier respondents more often reported personal happiness.
- More than half of Kyiv respondents noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of the Kyiv and Lviv regions. Among neighboring countries, city residents consider themselves closest to Belarus, Poland, and Russia.
- One third of respondents expressed a desire to start their own business. One in ten stated that they are already entrepreneurs. There are more such respondents among youth and people of middle age, as well as among those with middle and high income levels. Among those wishing to start their own business, 29% would like to engage in trade. Almost one in ten would consider doing business in IT, catering, or tourism, and 8% each in construction and repair, as well as entertainment and leisure.
- Over the past year, the number of those expressing a desire to work abroad has remained almost unchanged, at 36% in 2017 and 35% in 2018. At the same time, almost half of them are ready in the future to invest their earnings in starting a business in Ukraine, while 39% are not ready. Traditionally, higher migration intentions are observed among youth and people of middle age, at 51% and 37% respectively, as well as among those with middle or high incomes, at 40% and 46%.
- The majority of respondents, at 65%, believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Seventeen percent support granting the Russian language state status throughout Ukraine, and another 10% support granting Russian official status in certain regions.
- More than two thirds of respondents, at 69%, consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine. At the same time, 17% hold the opposite view, and 13% have not decided on an answer.
- Over the past year, the number of those supporting Ukraine’s accession to the European Union, at 63%, and NATO, at 57% in 2017 and 56% in 2018, has remained almost unchanged. Among different directions of foreign economic integration, the pro-European vector continues to lead. At the same time, against the backdrop of a decrease in the number of those choosing the EU as the preferred integration vector, from 59% to 56%, the number of supporters of Ukraine maintaining equal distance from Russia and the West has increased, from 23% to 25%. Only 5% support accession to the Customs Union.
-
Methodology
- On November, 16 – December, 2, 2018, within the framework of the project "Portraits of the Regions", the Rating Group has carried out a survey among the residents of Kyiv.
- In general, 1,600 respondents took part in the research conducted with the use of personal interviewing method. The sample is based on the age and gender structure of the region, taking into account the settlement type.
- The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
.webp)