“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Kyiv Region

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18.12.2018

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Kyiv Region

Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of the Kyiv region from November 16 to December 9, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents participated in the study, which was conducted using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole worse than the situation at the local level.
Only 7% assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 21% consider the situation in the region calm and 53% in their own city or village. Seventy-one percent of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 18% as critical. In the region, 62% consider the situation tense, while in their own city 34% do so; only about 8–10% consider the local situation critical.
Respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction of movement, at 15%, and that of their home region, at 16%, worse than that of their own city or village, at 25%. Residents of urban settlements and people of middle age are somewhat more optimistic in these assessments.
Despite negative assessments of the state of affairs, overall expectations among residents of the region are rather neutral-positive. About 17% believe that the situation both in Ukraine and at the local level will improve next year. The overwhelming majority, around 44%, believe that the situation will not change. Between 9% and 11% believe that the situation will worsen. One third of respondents cannot predict how the situation will change over the year. City residents are more skeptical in these assessments.
The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine, cited by 73%, and corruption in government, cited by 54%, are the two largest nationwide problems according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about low wages and pensions, cited by 44%, inflation, cited by 43%, and rising utility tariffs, cited by 41%. Low income, high prices, and medical services are noticeably more concerning personally for rural residents, while corruption and crime are more acute for urban residents. At the same time, at the level of national problems, political troubles such as war and corruption concern rural residents somewhat more.
The leader of the presidential rating is Yuliia Tymoshenko, supported by 26.4% of those who have decided and intend to vote. Volodymyr Zelenskyi is supported by 17.5%, Petro Poroshenko by 13.8%, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 7.9%, Oleh Liashko by 5.3%, and Yurii Boiko by 4.1%. Other candidates have ratings below 4%. More than one third of respondents have not decided on a candidate choice.
One quarter of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has increased more than twofold. Fourteen percent are confident in Petro Poroshenko’s victory, compared to 19% in 2017. About 5% consider Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s victory likely, while around 2% see victory by Anatolii Hrytsenko or Oleh Liashko as likely. No more than 1% believe in the victory of other candidates. Confidence in their favorites is demonstrated mainly by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. Forty-five percent of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 28.7% of those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections. The Servant of the People party is supported by 15.8%, Bloc Petro Poroshenko “Solidarity” by 10.1%, Civic Position by 8.0%, the Radical Party by 5.6%, and the Opposition Bloc by 4.0%. Other parties have ratings of no more than 3%. Every third respondent has not decided on a party choice. Every sixth respondent does not intend to vote.
A candidate’s orientation toward closer cooperation with the European Union, cited by 66%, their personal leadership qualities, cited by 66%, their socio-economic program, cited by 65%, and their orientation toward solving the country’s problems, cited by 59%, are motives that significantly influence respondents’ presidential choice. At the same time, for 30% attention paid by the candidate to their region is also important. Additionally, 55% focus on the candidate’s experience in politics, while 35% stated that belonging to the generation of “new politicians” is more important, which is more relevant for younger voters and supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi. On the question of change in the country, respondents’ opinions are evenly split: 42% consider ensuring stability important, and an equal 42% consider radical change important.
Thirty percent believe that the situation in Ukraine as a result of the upcoming elections will not change, and another 30% believe it will improve. Only 10% speak of deterioration. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko more often than others note expectations of positive changes. Significantly fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who do not intend to vote or have not decided.
Thirty-eight percent of respondents consider electoral fraud in the presidential elections at the national level likely, 30% at the regional level, and 26% in their own city or village. Another approximately 35–45% allow for the possibility of minor falsifications. Sixteen percent believe that there will definitely be no falsifications in their settlement.
At the same time, 14% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Twenty-one percent take a neutral position, while 61% oppose this type of campaigning. Wealthier respondents are somewhat more favorable toward the distribution of assistance.
Residents of the region assess the performance of local authorities better than that of central authorities. Thus, 14% of respondents are satisfied with the performance of President Petro Poroshenko, slightly more, at 16%, are satisfied with the performance of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and 5% with the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, more than 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the performance of central authorities.
Over the year, the level of satisfaction with the performance of the regional state administration has remained almost unchanged, at 21–23%, and is lower than the level of satisfaction with the work of city or village heads, which increased over the past year from 40% to 50%. Rural residents are somewhat more satisfied with the work of local heads than urban residents.
Respondents more often observe an increase in the level of corruption overall in Ukraine, at 39%, than in the region or at their place of residence, at 23–28%. Between 42% and 46% believe that the situation with bribery has not changed either at the central or local levels. Only 6% reported a decrease in corruption in the country and the region, while 10% reported a decrease in their own settlement.
The overwhelming majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in various spheres. Overall, the situation in school education, safety, and roads is assessed relatively better. In year-on-year dynamics, indicators related to safety, road conditions, ecology, agriculture, social protection, youth support, and industrial development have slightly increased, while indicators related to healthcare and the fight against corruption have declined. The latter sphere was rated the worst by respondents.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the ability to rest and spend leisure time, as well as to find a job, the highest. The opportunity to engage in entrepreneurship was rated the lowest. All areas of opportunity are rated higher by wealthier and younger respondents, as well as by urban residents.
Only 9–10% see high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their city or village over the next 5–10 years. About 36% assess the potential as moderate. Between 22% and 24% see low potential, and only 6% see no opportunities for economic growth at all, either nationally or locally. Urban residents assess growth potential somewhat more positively.
Seventy-four percent feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine, while even more, at 77%, feel proud to be residents of their region and 78% of their city or village. People of middle age feel pride somewhat less often. Most often, the object of pride in their region is nature, cited by 61%. Forty-eight percent are proud of the history of their land, 44% of culture and art, and 37% of traditions. About 20% also feel proud of the region’s natural resources, notable people, landmarks, and local residents.
More than 70% consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while 19% hold the opposite view. Younger and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. At the same time, every fourth representative of the older generation and every third from the poorest group consider themselves unhappy.
Residents of the region most often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of the capital. Among neighboring countries, residents of the region consider themselves closest to Belarus, and to a lesser extent to Poland and Russia.
About 40% expressed a desire to start their own business, while 44% do not have such a desire. Ten percent of respondents stated that they are already entrepreneurs. A higher level of desire to start a business is observed among younger and wealthier respondents. Among the latter, 22% stated that they already run a business. Among those wishing to start their own business, 25% indicated they would like to engage in trade, 13% in construction and repair, and 11% in tourism.
Over the past year, the level of desire to work abroad among residents of the region has remained almost unchanged, at 31–32%, while the number of those who definitely do not want to do so has slightly decreased from 65% to 61%. Fifty-four percent of those who want to work abroad are ready in the future to invest their earnings in starting a business in Ukraine, while 27% are not ready. Higher migration intentions are observed among youth, at 50%, and wealthier respondents, at 45%.
Sixty-eight percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Nine percent support granting the Russian language official status in certain regions, while 19% support granting Russian state language status.
The absolute majority, at 77%, consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine. Thirteen percent hold the opposite view, and 10% were unable to give an answer.
Fifty-six percent support accession to the European Union, while 21% do not support it, compared to 27% in the previous year. Fifty-two percent support accession to NATO, while 24% oppose it, the same as in 2017. Among various directions of foreign economic integration, the pro-European vector leads at 51%. Twenty-seven percent support maintaining equal distance from the EU and Russia. Only 5% support accession to the Customs Union, which is half as many as in 2017.

Methodology

On November, 16 – December, 9, 2018, within the framework of the project "Portraits of the Regions", the Sociological Group "Rating" has carried out a survey among the residents of Kyiv region.
In general, 1,600 respondents took part in the research conducted with the use of personal interviewing method. The sample is based on the age and gender structure of the region, taking into account the settlement type.
The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.

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