“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Kirovohrad Region

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13.12.2018

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Kirovohrad Region

Within the framework of the “Portraits of Regions” project, the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Kirovohrad region from November 16 to December 4, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the method of face-to-face interviews. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole worse than the situation at the local level.
Only 3% of respondents assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 19% consider the situation in the region to be calm, and 37% see the situation in their city or village as calm. Almost 58% view the situation in the country as tense, and 33% as critical. At the local level, assessments are somewhat better: between 45% and 55% see the situation as tense, and between 14% and 17% as critical.
Respondents assess the correctness of the direction of movement of the country (15%) and the region (18%) worse than that of their city or village (27%). Residents of the regional center are more optimistic in these assessments, while people of middle age are more critical.
Despite negative assessments of the current situation, general expectations among residents of the region are rather neutral-positive. One in three to one in four believe that the situation in Ukraine and locally will improve next year. The overwhelming majority (40–50%) think that the situation will not change. Between 11% and 15% believe that it will worsen.
The military conflict in eastern Ukraine (79%) is the most significant nationwide problem according to residents of the region. Unemployment is also considered a major problem (47%). At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about low income and rising utility tariffs, both cited by 51%. Unemployment, inflation, and low income are felt more acutely in rural areas, while tariffs, healthcare, and social protection are of greater concern to residents of the regional center.
The leader of the presidential rating is Yuliia Tymoshenko, whom 24.1% of those who have decided and intend to vote are ready to support. Volodymyr Zelenskyi is supported by 13.4%, Petro Poroshenko by 12.9%, Oleh Liashko by 10.0%, Yurii Boiko by 9.6%, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 4.9%, and Vadym Rabinovych and Oleksandr Shevchenko by 4.1% each. Other candidates have ratings below 3%. At the same time, every fifth resident of the region has not decided on a candidate.
One quarter of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has increased more than threefold. Eleven percent are confident in the victory of Petro Poroshenko (the same as in 2017). About 6% consider the victory of Volodymyr Zelenskyi likely, 5% that of Yurii Boiko, and 4% that of Oleh Liashko. Fewer than 2% believe in a positive result for other candidates. Confidence in favorites is mainly expressed by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko, Petro Poroshenko, and Vadym Rabinovych.
The negative rating is led by Petro Poroshenko. Almost 60% of respondents would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 25.9% of those who have decided and intend to participate in elections. Servant of the People is supported by 15.6%, European Solidarity by 11.2%, the Opposition Bloc by 10.3%, the Radical Party by 8.8%, Za Zhyttia by 4.8%, and Civic Position by 4.7%. Other parties have ratings below 4%. At the same time, 18% have not decided on their choice.
A candidate’s focus on solving the country’s problems (63%), socio-economic program (59%), and orientation toward closer cooperation with the EU (56%) are motives that significantly influence respondents’ presidential choice. At the same time, 30% are inclined to focus on a politician’s ideological views rather than their program, 23% consider attention to their region important, and 22% view cooperation with Russia as more appropriate, especially voters of Yurii Boiko. For 52%, personal leadership qualities of the candidate are important, while 38% consider the presence of a strong team more important. Another 48% choose a candidate primarily because of political experience, while for 42% belonging to the generation of “new politicians” is important, particularly among younger respondents and voters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Oleksandr Shevchenko. When choosing between radical changes and ensuring stability, 49% prefer radical changes, while 42% lean more toward stability.
Forty-seven percent of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will improve as a result of the upcoming presidential elections. Thirty percent believe that the situation will not change, and only 9% say that it will worsen. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko more often expect positive changes. Significantly fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who do not intend to vote.
According to respondents, the likelihood of election fraud at the national level (43%) is higher than at the local level (20–26%). About half of respondents allow the possibility of minor falsifications. Twenty-one percent believe that there will be no fraud in their locality.
Twenty-one percent of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Thirty-three percent take a neutral position, while 42% oppose this form of campaigning. Residents of the regional center and rural areas, as well as respondents with middle and lower income levels, are more favorable toward the distribution of assistance.
Residents of the region assess the performance of local authorities better than that of central authorities. Nine percent are satisfied with the activity of President Petro Poroshenko, slightly more (11%) with the activity of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and only 3% with the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, more than 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the activity of central authorities. Residents of the regional center assess it somewhat better.
Over the year, satisfaction with the activity of the regional state administration decreased significantly (from 39% to 19%), as did satisfaction with the work of the city or village head (from 51% to 36%). Satisfaction with local heads is higher among residents of small towns and villages.
Respondents more often observe an increase in corruption in Ukraine as a whole (34%) than in the region (22%) or their place of residence (17%). Between 50% and 55% believe that the situation with bribery has not changed at either the central or local levels. Only 4–6% reported a decrease in corruption in the region and the country, while 15% reported a decrease in their locality.
The overwhelming majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the situation in various sectors and services. Agricultural development, school education, and road conditions received relatively better evaluations. In year-to-year dynamics, most indicators show negative trends, with the exception of agriculture. Evaluations of school education, ecology, social protection, youth support, and the fight against corruption have deteriorated significantly, with the latter rated the worst.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated opportunities for leisure and recreation and achieving success the highest, and finding a job the lowest. All opportunities are rated higher by residents of the regional center. Leisure, success, and employment opportunities are rated better by wealthier respondents.
About 21% see high economic development potential for Ukraine, while 10% see such potential for the region and for their city or village over the next 5–10 years. Between 35% and 45% assess the potential as medium. About one third see low potential, and 8–12% see no prospects for economic growth at all, both nationally and locally. Residents of the regional center assess the growth potential of their city somewhat more positively.
Sixty-nine percent feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine, while 21% do not. Seventy percent feel proud to be residents of their region, and the highest share feel proud of their city or village (77%), while 17% hold the opposite view. Older respondents feel pride somewhat more often. The most common sources of regional pride are history (37%) and nature (36%). Twenty-three percent are proud of local culture, 20% of traditions, 18% of local residents, about 15% of agriculture, prominent people, and sports achievements, 12% of natural resources, and 11% of landmarks and cuisine.
About 70% consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while 23% hold the opposite view. Younger and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. At the same time, almost one third of representatives of the older generation and the poorest groups consider themselves unhappy.
Residents of the region most often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Cherkasy, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kyiv, and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Among neighboring countries, respondents consider themselves closest to Belarus, Poland, and Russia.
Thirty-four percent expressed a desire to start their own business, while 37% do not have such a desire and 23% are undecided. Six percent reported that they are already entrepreneurs. A higher desire to start a business is observed among residents of small towns, younger respondents, and wealthier individuals. Among the latter, 34% reported that they already run a business. Among those wishing to start a business, 47% would like to engage in trade.
Over the past year, the share of those wishing to work abroad increased from 26% to 38%. At the same time, 65% of them are ready to invest earned money in starting a business in Ukraine in the future. Higher migration intentions are observed among young people (53%).
Seventy percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Thirteen percent support granting Russian official status in certain regions, and 11% support granting Russian the status of a state language.
About half of respondents (52%) consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine, while 30% hold the opposite view and 18% were unable to answer.
Support for Ukraine’s accession to the European Union remains at the same level (45–46%). NATO accession is supported by 37%, the same as last year. At the same time, the number of opponents of alliance with NATO has slightly decreased (from 32% to 29%). Among directions of foreign economic integration, the pro-European vector is supported by 42%, and the Customs Union by 9%. Over time, the share of those supporting Ukraine’s equidistance from Russia and the West has decreased (from 34% to 26%).
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Methodology

On November, 16 – December, 4, 2018, within the framework of the project "Portraits of the Regions", the Rating Group has carried out a survey among the residents of Kirovograd region.
In general, 1,600 respondents took part in the research conducted with the use of personal interviewing method. The sample is based on the age and gender structure of the region, taking into account the settlement type.
The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.

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