“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Luhansk Region

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19.12.2018

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Luhansk Region

Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Luhansk region between November 16 and December 16, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results shows that respondents assess the situation in their place of residence relatively better than the situation in the region as a whole and in the country overall.
Only 5% of respondents described the political situation in the country as calm. Ten percent consider the situation in their home region to be calm, while 31% perceive the situation in their own city or village as calm. Around 50% of respondents view the situation in the country and in the region as tense, and 34–42% describe it as critical. In their own settlement, 40% consider the situation tense and 25% critical.
Respondents also assess the correctness of the direction of development of the country (10%) and the region (9%) somewhat worse than that of their own city or village (17%). The local situation is evaluated more positively by residents of smaller settlements and by younger respondents.
Overall expectations among residents of the region are predominantly neutral-negative. About 25–26% believe that the situation both in Ukraine and at the local level will worsen in the coming year. A relative majority, 42–43%, believe that the situation will not change, while 15–16% express optimistic expectations for the near future. Optimistic views are somewhat more common in small towns and villages and among younger respondents.
The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine is considered the most serious nationwide problem by residents of the region, with 68% identifying it as such. In addition, 41% regard unemployment as a major problem. At the personal level, respondents are primarily concerned about rising utility tariffs (47%), followed by the war in Donbas (45%) and low wages and pensions (42%). At the personal level, low income, the military conflict, and language issues concern residents of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk more strongly. For residents of Sievierodonetsk, inflation, corruption, and the healthcare sector are also more significant concerns, while for residents of Lysychansk and smaller settlements unemployment is a particularly pressing issue.
The leader of the presidential rating in the region is Yurii Boiko, supported by 22.5% of respondents who have decided on their choice and intend to vote. Yuliia Tymoshenko is supported by 13.4%, Volodymyr Zelenskyi by 12.5%, Yevhen Murayev by 12.2%, Oleh Liashko by 8.5%, Petro Poroshenko by 6.1%, Vadym Rabinovych by 3.5%, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 3.3%, and Serhii Taruta by 3.1%. Other candidates have ratings not exceeding 3%. At the same time, 32% of residents have not decided on a candidate, and nearly 16% do not intend to participate in the elections.
Twenty-three percent of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election, which is almost five times higher than in the previous year. Eleven percent are confident in a victory by Petro Poroshenko, compared to 6% in 2017. Approximately 6% consider a victory by Yurii Boiko or Volodymyr Zelenskyi likely. Fewer than 3% believe in a positive outcome for other candidates. Confidence in electoral success is mainly observed among supporters of Tymoshenko and Poroshenko.
Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. Sixty-one percent of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, the Opposition Bloc leads with the support of 23.7% of respondents who have decided and intend to vote. Batkivshchyna is supported by 13.3%, the party “Nashi” by 11.1%, the party “Servant of the People” by 9.8%, “For Life” by 8.8%, the Radical Party by 6.6%, the party “Our Land” by 4.4%, and Bloc Petro Poroshenko “Solidarity” by 4.1%. Other parties have ratings below 4%. At the same time, nearly one in four residents have not decided which party to support, and one in five does not intend to vote.
The ability of a candidate to ensure stability in the country (70%), a socio-economic program (62%), and a focus on solving the problems of the country and the region (60%) are the motives that most strongly influence respondents’ presidential choice. Additionally, 54% choose a candidate because of leadership qualities, while for 40% the presence of a strong team is more important. For 51%, experience in state politics is important, while 41% say that belonging to a new generation of politicians matters more. The latter motive dominates among supporters of Zelenskyi and Murayev. For 41%, a candidate’s orientation toward cooperation with Russia is important, particularly among supporters of Boiko and Murayev, while for 37% cooperation with the European Union is more important, especially among supporters of Poroshenko.
Forty-one percent of respondents believe that the situation in Ukraine will not change as a result of the upcoming presidential election. Twenty-nine percent expect it to improve, and 15% expect it to worsen. Supporters of Poroshenko are more likely than others to expect positive changes. Respondents who do not intend to vote expect positive changes less frequently.
According to respondents, the likelihood of electoral fraud in presidential elections is higher at the national level (54%) and at the regional level (48%) than in their own city or village (40%). About 30% of respondents also allow for the possibility of minor falsifications. Sixteen percent believe that there will be no falsifications in their locality.
Nearly one third of residents in the region have a positive attitude toward situations in which politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Another 23% take a neutral stance, while about half, 47%, oppose this form of campaigning. Younger respondents, residents of Sievierodonetsk, and poorer population groups are more favorable toward such practices.
Residents of the region assess the work of local authorities somewhat better than that of regional and central authorities. Only 7% are satisfied with the work of President Poroshenko, 9% with Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and just 3% with the Verkhovna Rada. More than 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the central authorities.
Only 10% are satisfied with the work of the regional state administration, while 67% are dissatisfied. However, over the year the share of those satisfied increased from 2% to 10%. Satisfaction with the work of city and village heads also increased noticeably, from 21% to 31%. Residents of small towns and villages are the most satisfied with local leaders, while residents of Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk are the least satisfied.
About 54% believe that the situation with bribery has worsened at the national level, and 38–46% hold the same view regarding the local level. Around 26–30% see no changes in corruption either nationwide or locally. Only 6–8% reported a decrease in corruption in the country and in the region.
The vast majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in various sectors. The situation in school education, public safety, and the environment receives relatively better evaluations. Over the past year, improvements are observed in youth support, while deterioration is noted in school education, environmental conditions, and the fight against corruption. Industrial development receives the most negative evaluations.
Overall, respondents assess the level of opportunities across all areas as low. Opportunities to live safely and to rest and spend leisure time are evaluated relatively better, while the ability to find a job is evaluated the worst. All areas of opportunity are rated higher by younger and wealthier respondents. Residents of Lysychansk and rural areas give lower evaluations, while residents of Sievierodonetsk and other small towns give higher ones.
Only 4–5% see high economic development potential for Ukraine and their locality over the next 5–10 years. Around 22% assess the potential as moderate, while 35–37% consider it low. Another 21–25% see no opportunities for economic growth at all, either nationally or locally. Residents of small towns and villages and younger respondents assess growth potential more positively.
Fifty-five percent feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine, a sentiment slightly more common among the oldest respondents. Thirty-five percent do not feel such pride. About 60% feel proud to be residents of their region, and 66% of their city or village, although nearly one third do not take pride in their local origin. Respondents most often cited nature (33%) and history (27%) as sources of regional pride. Additionally, 20% are proud of local residents, 13% of sporting achievements, and 10–11% of economic activity and natural resources. Twelve percent stated that nothing makes them proud of their region.
More than 60% consider themselves definitely or rather happy, while 32% hold the opposite view. Feelings of happiness are more common among younger and wealthier respondents. Conversely, 44% of older respondents and 48% of those in the poorest group consider themselves unhappy.
Residents of the region most often report cultural and historical closeness to residents of neighboring Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. Among neighboring countries, they consider themselves closest to Russia, and somewhat less close to Belarus.
About 35% expressed a desire to start their own business, while 5% reported that they are already entrepreneurs. A slightly higher desire to start a business is observed among residents of Sievierodonetsk and other small towns, as well as among younger and wealthier respondents. Among the latter, 22% stated that they already run their own business. Among those wishing to start a business, 32% would choose trade, while about 13% would choose construction or farming.
Over the past year, the share of respondents who expressed a desire to work abroad increased from 21% to 31%. Among them, 60% are willing to invest their earnings in starting a business in Ukraine, while 35% are not. Traditionally, migration intentions are highest among youth (59%) and wealthier respondents (43%).
Thirty-nine percent support granting Russian the status of a state language, while another 28% support granting it official status in certain regions. Thirty-one percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language.
Only 30% consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine. Fifty-five percent hold the opposite view, and 15% are undecided.
Support for Ukraine’s accession to the European Union increased slightly over the year, from 27% to 30%, while opposition also increased, from 33% to 47%. Support for NATO membership remained almost unchanged at 21–23%, but opposition to joining the North Atlantic Alliance rose from 36% to 60%. Regarding foreign economic integration, 23% support a pro-European vector, 25% support joining the Customs Union, which is twice as high as in 2017, while 35% favor equidistance between Russia and the West, compared to 46% in 2017.

Methodology

On November, 16 – December, 16, 2018, within the framework of the project "Portraits of the Regions", the Sociological Group "Rating" has carried out a survey among the residents of Luhansk region.
In general, 1,600 respondents took part in the research conducted with the use of personal interviewing method.
The sample is based on the age and gender structure of the region, taking into account the settlement type.
The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.

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