“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Lviv Region

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17.12.2018

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Lviv Region

Within the framework of the “Portraits of Regions” project, the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of the Lviv region from November 16 to December 7, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the method of face-to-face interviews. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region and the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole worse than the situation at the local level.
Only 5% of respondents assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 43% consider the situation in their region to be calm, and 59% see the situation in their city or village as calm. Nearly 70% of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 23% as critical. At the local level, assessments are somewhat better: between 30% and 43% of respondents consider the situation tense, and only about 5–7% consider it critical.
Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction of movement worse (25%) than that of the region (37%). Almost half of respondents note a positive situation in the settlement where they live. Relatively better assessments of the direction of development of both the country and the region are observed among residents of small towns.
At the same time, despite negative assessments of the situation in the country and the region, general expectations among residents of the region are rather neutral-positive. Only one in five to one in six respondents believes that the situation in Ukraine and at the local level will worsen next year. Almost half believe that the situation will not change, while one in five has optimistic expectations for the future.
The military conflict in eastern Ukraine (79%) and bribery and corruption in government (53%) are the two main nationwide problems according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about low wages and pensions, rising utility tariffs (50% each), and rising prices for basic goods (49%). Rising prices for basic goods are felt more acutely in rural areas and other towns of the region.
Among those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections, the leaders of the presidential rating are Yuliia Tymoshenko, whom 16.7% are ready to support, Petro Poroshenko with 15.5%, and Anatolii Hrytsenko with 14.8%. Andrii Sadovyi would receive 10.4% of the vote, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 9.9%, Volodymyr Zelenskyi 6.8%, Oleksandr Shevchenko 6.1%, and Oleh Liashko 4.1%. Other candidates have ratings below 3%. At the same time, almost every sixth resident of the region has not decided on a candidate.
One quarter of respondents believe that Petro Poroshenko will win the presidential election. Seventeen percent are confident in the victory of Yuliia Tymoshenko. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of the victory of both candidates has doubled. About 6% see Anatolii Hrytsenko as the winner. Fewer than 3% believe in a positive result for other candidates. Confidence in their favorites is primarily shown by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
The negative rating is led by Yurii Boiko. Half of respondents would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings among those who have decided and intend to participate in elections, Batkivshchyna leads with 18%, followed by Civic Position with 16.6% and Samopomich with 15%. European Solidarity would receive 13.4%, Servant of the People 7.3%, and UKROP and Svoboda 6.6% each. Other parties have ratings below 4%. At the same time, almost every sixth resident of the region has not decided on a party choice.
Orientation of a candidate toward closer cooperation with the European Union (86%) and the candidate’s personal leadership qualities (62%) are the motives that have a significant influence on respondents’ presidential choice. For 53%, the candidate’s ability to ensure radical changes in the country is important, while 42% say ensuring stability is more important. Fifty-one percent choose a candidate primarily because of their socio-economic program, while 41% consider ideological views more important. Fifty-three percent emphasize the importance of a candidate’s focus on solving national problems, while 41% focus on solving both national and regional problems. For 54%, experience in state politics is more important, while 38% highlight belonging to the generation of “new” politicians. This latter motive is dominant among supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Sviatoslav Vakarchuk.
Thirty-one percent of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will improve as a result of the upcoming presidential elections. Thirty-eight percent believe the situation will not change, and only 12% think it will worsen. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, and Petro Poroshenko more often expect positive changes. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who do not intend to vote or have not decided.
According to respondents, the likelihood of election fraud at the national level (50%) is higher than at the local level (21%). About 40% allow for minor fraud at the local level, and one third at the national level. At the settlement level, one quarter believe elections will be fair.
Nine percent of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Seventeen percent take a neutral position on this issue. Seventy-one percent are opposed to this form of campaigning. Less affluent respondents are more favorable toward candidates distributing assistance.
Residents of the region assess the activity of local authorities somewhat better than that of central authorities. Twenty percent of respondents are satisfied with the performance of President Petro Poroshenko, the same share are satisfied with Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and only 10% with the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, about 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the activity of central authorities. More critical assessments are found in rural areas.
Over the past year, satisfaction with the activity of the regional state administration has increased (from 22% to 35%), as has satisfaction with the work of city or village heads (from 38% to 54%). Satisfaction with the activity of the regional administration is higher among residents of small towns.
Respondents more often observe an increase in the level of corruption in Ukraine as a whole than in the region or their place of residence. Between 40% and 50% believe the situation with bribery has not changed at either the central or local levels. Only 4–8% reported a decrease in corruption.
The vast majority of respondents are generally dissatisfied with the situation in various sectors and services. Relatively better assessments were given to school education, road conditions, and public safety. Over the year, most indicators show positive dynamics or no change, with the greatest improvement seen in road conditions and safety. A decline was recorded in social protection. The worst-rated area is the fight against bribery.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated opportunities for leisure and recreation and for finding a job the highest, and entrepreneurship the lowest. Opportunities for leisure and success are rated higher by residents of the regional center, opportunities to find a job and engage in entrepreneurship by residents of Lviv and small towns, and safety by rural residents. Younger and wealthier respondents rate all opportunities higher than older and poorer ones.
About 7–9% see high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their city or village over the next 5–10 years. More than 40% assess it as medium. More than one third see low potential, and 6–9% see no prospects for economic growth at all. Residents of the regional center and younger respondents assess growth potential more positively.
The absolute majority of respondents (84%) feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine. Slightly more feel proud to be residents of their region (87%) and of their city or village (88%). The older the respondent, the higher the level of pride. Most often, respondents cited local traditions and regional history (53–54%) as sources of pride. Culture and art are mentioned by 44%, nature by 31%, landmarks by 25%, prominent people by 17%, local residents and cuisine by 14% each, and natural resources and science and education by 10% each.
Almost 80% consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while 14% think otherwise. Urban residents, younger, and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. Conversely, one in five representatives of the older generation and one in four among the poorest consider themselves unhappy.
Residents of the region more often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Ivano-Frankivsk and Ternopil regions. Among neighboring countries, residents feel the greatest closeness to Poland, and somewhat less to Belarus and Slovakia.
One third expressed a desire to start their own business. Six percent reported that they are already entrepreneurs. At the same time, nearly half did not express such a desire. A higher desire to start a business is observed among residents of small towns, younger respondents, and wealthier individuals. Among the latter, one quarter reported already running a business. Among those wishing to start a business, 28% would like to engage in trade, 19% in construction, 15% in tourism, 13% in entertainment and leisure, and 11% in public catering.
One third of respondents expressed a desire to work abroad. Over the past year, this share has not changed. At the same time, 55% of them are ready to invest earned money in starting a business in Ukraine in the future, while 27% do not plan to do so. Traditionally, higher migration intentions are observed among young people (55%) and wealthier respondents (44%).
Ninety percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Seven percent support granting Russian the status of an official language in certain regions, and only 1% support granting Russian the status of a state language.
The absolute majority of respondents (92%) consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine. Only 5% hold the opposite opinion.
Over the past year, support for Ukraine’s accession to NATO has slightly increased (from 73% to 78%). Support for accession to the European Union stands at 85% (82% in 2017). Among various directions of foreign economic integration, 80% support accession to the EU, 12% support equidistance from Russia and the West, and only 1% support accession to the Customs Union.

Methodology

On November, 16 – December, 7, 2018, within the framework of the project "Portraits of the Regions", the Rating Group has carried out a survey among the residents of Lviv region.
In general, 1,600 respondents took part in the research conducted with the use of personal interviewing method. The sample is based on the age and gender structure of the region, taking into account the settlement type.
The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.

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