“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Mykolaiv Region

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19.12.2018

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Mykolaiv Region

Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Mykolaiv region between November 16 and December 9, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole somewhat worse than the situation at the local level.
Only 5% of respondents described the political situation in the country as calm, while 21% consider the situation in their home region to be calm and 33% perceive the situation in their own city or village as calm. Almost 68% of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 25% describe it as critical. At the local level, assessments are somewhat better: between 50% and 60% of respondents see the situation as tense, while only about 12–15% consider it critical.
Respondents also assess the correctness of the direction of development of the country and the region somewhat worse, at 12% and 13% respectively, than that of their own city or village, which stands at 17%.
At the same time, despite negative assessments of the current situation, overall expectations among residents of the region are rather neutral. More than 40% of respondents believe that the situation both in Ukraine as a whole and at the local level will not change in the coming year. One in five believes that it will worsen, while 15% have optimistic expectations about the future. Residents of rural areas are the least likely to expect improvements both at the national and local levels.
The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine, cited by 74% of respondents, and bribery and corruption in government, cited by 55%, are the two main nationwide problems according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about rising utility tariffs (62%), low wages and pensions (61%), and rising prices for basic goods and inflation (50%). Problems such as low wages and pensions and inflation are felt more acutely in the regional center and in rural areas. Residents of small towns more often mentioned the inability to obtain quality medical care.
The leaders of the presidential rating in the region are Yuliia Tymoshenko and Volodymyr Zelenskyi, supported by 20.3% and 19.8% respectively among those who have decided and intend to vote. Yurii Boiko is supported by 15.2%, Oleh Liashko by 8.2%, Petro Poroshenko by 6.4%, Yevhen Murayev by 6.3%, Oleksandr Shevchenko by 5.0%, and Anatolii Hrytsenko by 4.6%. Other candidates have ratings below 4%. At the same time, almost one third of residents of the region have not decided on a candidate, and one in six does not intend to participate in voting.
Almost 16% of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has nearly doubled. Six percent are confident in a victory by Petro Poroshenko, compared to 8% in 2017. Four percent expect Yurii Boiko to win, and 3% expect Volodymyr Zelenskyi to win. No more than 3% believe in a positive outcome for other candidates. Confidence in victory is mainly observed among supporters of Tymoshenko, Poroshenko, and Boiko.
Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. Sixty-four percent of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 19.5% of respondents who have decided and intend to vote. The party “Servant of the People” is supported by 16.6%, the Opposition Bloc by 14.6%, the Radical Party by 9.2%, the party “Nashi” by 6.3%, “For Life” by 5.9%, Bloc Petro Poroshenko “Solidarity” by 5.5%, and Civic Position by 4.6%. Other parties have ratings below 4%. At the same time, nearly 28% of residents of the region have not decided which party to support, and 22% do not intend to participate in voting.
Personal leadership qualities of a candidate, cited by 69%, and their socio-economic program, cited by 64%, are the motives that most strongly influence respondents’ presidential choice. For 57%, experience in state politics is important, while 38% say that belonging to a new generation of politicians matters more. This latter motive dominates among supporters of Zelenskyi and Murayev. A candidate’s focus on solving the country’s problems overall is a motive for 53% of respondents, while for 40% it is important that the candidate also focuses on solving regional problems. Orientation toward cooperation with the European Union is important for 48%, while 23% place greater importance on cooperation with Russia. Respondents are evenly divided between preferring a candidate’s ability to ensure stability in the country and support for radical change.
Twenty-seven percent of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will improve as a result of the upcoming presidential election. Thirty-four percent believe that the situation will not change, and only 13% think it will worsen. About one quarter of respondents were unable to answer this question. Supporters of Poroshenko, Tymoshenko, and Boiko are more likely than others to expect positive changes. Respondents who do not intend to vote or who are undecided expect positive changes less often.
According to respondents, the likelihood of electoral fraud in presidential elections is higher at the national level, cited by 62%, than at the local level, cited by 37%. An additional 25–35% allow for the possibility of minor falsifications.
Only 8% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Seventeen percent take a neutral position, while 70% oppose this form of campaigning. Residents of small towns and poorer respondents are more favorable toward such practices.
Residents of the region assess the work of local authorities much better than that of the central authorities. Only 8% of respondents are satisfied with the work of President Poroshenko and Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and just 3% are satisfied with the work of the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, about 90% expressed dissatisfaction with the central authorities.
Over the course of the year, satisfaction with the work of the regional state administration declined from 27% to 13%, as did satisfaction with the work of city and village heads, from 40% to 32%. The share of those dissatisfied with the regional state administration and with city or village heads increased compared to the previous year, from 51% to 72% and from 45% to 59% respectively. The lowest level of satisfaction with the regional state administration is observed in the regional center, while dissatisfaction with city or village heads is highest in small towns.
Respondents more often perceive an increase in corruption nationwide than in the region or in their place of residence. About 60% believe that the situation with bribery has not changed either at the central or local levels. Only 3–6% reported a decrease in corruption.
The vast majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in various sectors and services. The situation in school education receives relatively better evaluations. The worst assessments concern the fight against bribery at the local level, industrial development, and youth support. Over the past year, negative dynamics are observed across all criteria.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the ability to rest and spend leisure time, as well as to live safely, the highest. The lowest-rated opportunity is achieving success. All opportunities are evaluated relatively higher by residents of the regional center and lowest by residents of rural areas. Younger and wealthier respondents assess all opportunities more positively than older and poorer respondents.
About 7% see high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their city or village over the next 5–10 years. About one quarter assess the potential as moderate. More than one third see low potential, and 6–13% see no opportunities for economic growth at all, either nationally or locally. One in five respondents hesitated to answer, most of whom are residents of rural areas. Residents of small towns assess growth potential somewhat higher.
More than half of respondents, 57%, feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine, while 24% hold the opposite view. Slightly more respondents feel proud to be residents of their region, at 61%, and of their city or village, at 65%. At the same time, 17–19% do not feel pride in belonging to a particular region. Most often, respondents cited nature, at 42%, and history, at 39%, as sources of regional pride. Pride in local residents was cited by 25%, traditions by 19%, culture and art and natural resources by 16% each, sporting achievements by 15%, prominent regional figures by 13%, and agriculture as well as science and education by 11% each.
Almost 55% consider themselves definitely or rather happy, while 28% hold the opposite view. Feelings of happiness are more common among urban residents, younger respondents, and wealthier individuals. Conversely, 38% of older respondents and 48% of those in the poorest category consider themselves unhappy.
Residents of the region more often reported cultural and historical closeness to residents of Odesa and Kherson regions. Among neighboring countries, respondents most often consider themselves closest to Belarus and Russia, and less frequently to Poland and Moldova.
Almost 24% expressed a desire to start their own business, while 57% have no such aspirations. Seven percent reported that they are already entrepreneurs. A higher desire to start a business is observed among residents of small towns, younger respondents, and wealthier individuals. Within the middle-income group, 12% stated that they already run their own business. Among those wishing to start a business, 39% would choose trade, 18% farming, 7–9% transport services, entertainment and leisure, or construction, and 6% auto services, tourism, and the beauty and health industry.
Over the past year, the share of respondents who expressed a desire to work abroad has remained almost unchanged at 31%. At the same time, the share of those who do not seek employment abroad declined from 64% to 59%. Thirty-nine percent are willing in the future to invest their earnings in starting a business in Ukraine, while 40% do not express such intentions. Traditionally, migration aspirations are highest among youth, at 58%, and wealthier respondents, at 37%. Residents of small towns and villages are more inclined to consider working abroad than residents of the regional center.
Sixty percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Nineteen percent support granting Russian the status of a state language, and 16% support granting it official status in certain regions.
Forty-two percent of respondents consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine, while 34% hold the opposite view. Nearly one quarter were undecided.
Over the past year, the share of those supporting Ukraine’s accession to the European Union increased from 34% to 39%, and support for NATO membership rose from 23% to 27%. At the same time, the share of opponents decreased. Among different directions of foreign economic integration, the majority support equidistance between Russia and the West, at 44%. Over the past year, the share of those favoring accession to the Customs Union declined from 14% to 9%, while support for a pro-European vector increased from 30% to 34%.

Methodology

On November, 16 – December, 9, 2018, within the framework of the project "Portraits of the Regions", the Rating Group has carried out a survey among the residents of Mykolaiv region.
In general, 1,600 respondents took part in the research conducted with the use of personal interviewing method.
The sample is based on the age and gender structure of the region, taking into account the settlement type.
The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.

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