“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Odesa Region

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14.12.2018

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Odesa Region

Within the framework of the “Portraits of Regions” project, the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Odesa region from November 16 to December 4, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the method of face-to-face interviews. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole somewhat worse than the situation at the local level.
Only 3% of respondents assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 19% consider the situation in their region to be calm, and 42% see the situation in their city or village as calm. Fifty-two percent of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 40% as critical. Half of respondents assess the situation in the region as tense, while another 21% consider it critical. Assessments of the situation in respondents’ own city are better: 38% see it as tense and 14% as critical.
Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction of movement worse (9%) than that of the region (14%) or their city or village (23%). Residents of the regional center are less critical in their assessments of the direction of development of both the country and their locality.
General expectations among residents of the region are rather negative-neutral. Only one in ten believes that the situation in Ukraine and at the local level will improve next year. About 40% believe that it will not change, while about one quarter have pessimistic expectations about the future. Between 22% and 23% were unable to answer this question.
The military conflict in eastern Ukraine (62%), lack of jobs and unemployment (40%), and bribery and corruption in government (40%) are the three main nationwide problems according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about rising utility tariffs (65%), low wages and pensions (56%), and rising prices for basic goods (55%). Problems such as low wages and pensions, unemployment, and inflation are felt more acutely in rural areas, while rising utility tariffs are felt more acutely in cities.
The leader of the presidential rating is Yuliia Tymoshenko, whom 19.9% of those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections are ready to support. Volodymyr Zelenskyi is supported by 17.5%, Yurii Boiko by 15.2%, Yevhenii Muraiiev by 8.6%, Vadym Rabinovych by 7.2%, Oleh Liashko by 6.6%, Petro Poroshenko by 5.4%, and Anatolii Hrytsenko by 4.8%. Other candidates have ratings below 3%. At the same time, approximately every fifth resident of the region does not wish to vote, and every seventh has not decided on a candidate.
Nineteen percent of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has doubled. Six percent are confident in the victory of Petro Poroshenko (compared to 16% in 2017). About 6% believe that Yurii Boiko will win, and 5% believe in the victory of Volodymyr Zelenskyi. Fewer than 3% believe in a positive result for other candidates. Confidence in their favorites is mainly shown by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko, Yurii Boiko, and Petro Poroshenko.
The negative rating is led by Petro Poroshenko. Three quarters of respondents would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 21.3% of those who have decided and intend to participate in elections. The Opposition Bloc is supported by 18.7%, Servant of the People by 15.3%, the Nashy party by 8.6%, Za Zhyttia by 7.1%, the Radical Party by 6.5%, European Solidarity by 5.1%, and Civic Position by 4.3%. Other parties have ratings below 4%. At the same time, one quarter of residents of the region do not wish to vote, and every seventh has not decided.
A candidate’s ability to ensure stability in the country (61%) and their socio-economic program (62%) are motives that significantly influence respondents’ presidential choice. Fifty-three percent choose a candidate primarily because of leadership qualities, while 39% consider the presence of a strong team more important. For 51%, a candidate’s experience in state politics is important, while 41% say that belonging to the generation of “new” politicians is more important. The latter motive dominates among supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Yevhenii Muraiiev. A candidate’s focus on solving the country’s problems is a motive for choice for 52% of respondents, while for 42% it is important that the candidate focuses on solving the problems of both the country and the region. For 38%, orientation toward cooperation with the EU is important, while for 31% cooperation with Russia is more important; one third have not decided on this issue.
Twenty-three percent of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will improve as a result of the upcoming presidential elections, while the same share hold the opposite view. Thirty-four percent believe that the situation will not change. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko more often expect positive changes. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who do not intend to vote or have not decided.
According to respondents, the likelihood of election fraud at the national level (63%) is higher than at the local level (54% in the region and 46% in the city or village). About 25% allow for minor falsifications at all levels.
At the same time, 22% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Thirty percent take a neutral position on this issue. Forty-four percent oppose this form of campaigning. Older and poorer respondents are more favorable toward candidates distributing assistance.
Residents of the region assess the activity of local authorities significantly better than that of central authorities. Only 4–6% are satisfied with the performance of President Petro Poroshenko, Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, more than 90% expressed dissatisfaction with the activity of central authorities.
Over the year, satisfaction with the activity of the regional state administration has almost not changed (from 24% to 26%). Fifty-three percent, as last year, stated that they are satisfied with the activity of the city or village head. Satisfaction with local heads is somewhat higher among residents of cities and the regional center than among rural residents.
Respondents more often observe an increase in the level of corruption in Ukraine as a whole than in the region or their place of residence. About 40% believe that the situation with bribery has not changed at either the central or local levels. Only 3–5% reported a decrease in corruption.
The overwhelming majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the situation in various sectors and services. Over the year, no changes are observed for most indicators. Only assessments of agricultural development and road conditions have improved. The situation with school education, road conditions, and agriculture is assessed relatively better. The worst evaluations concern the fight against bribery at the local level and industrial development.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated opportunities for leisure and recreation the highest, and opportunities for entrepreneurship and living safely the lowest. Residents of the regional center, as well as younger and wealthier respondents, rate all opportunities higher.
About 6% see high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their city or village over the next 5–10 years. About one quarter assess it as medium. At the same time, about one third see low potential, and 15–17% see no prospects for economic growth at all, both in Ukraine and locally. Younger and middle-aged respondents assess growth potential more critically.
More than half of respondents (60%) feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine, while 28% hold the opposite view. Slightly more feel proud to be residents of their region (72%) and of their city or village (81%). Most often, respondents cited nature (46%), history (43%), and local residents (40%) as sources of pride for their region. Thirty percent are proud of regional culture and art, 27% of traditions, 25% of landmarks, 22% of cuisine and culinary traditions, 13% of natural resources, and 11% of prominent people.
Two thirds consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while one quarter hold the opposite view. Younger and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. At the same time, one in three representatives of the older generation consider themselves unhappy, and among the poor this share reaches 43%.
Residents of the region more often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Mykolaiv region. Among neighboring countries, respondents most often chose Belarus and Russia, as well as Moldova, as being close.
Almost 26% expressed a desire to start their own business. Ten percent reported that they are already entrepreneurs, while half stated that they do not have such aspirations. A higher desire to start a business is observed among residents of the regional center, younger respondents, and wealthier individuals. Among the latter, one third reported already running a business. Among those wishing to start a business, 31% would like to engage in trade, 13% in farming, and 7–9% in public catering, tourism, construction and repairs, car service, transport services, the beauty and wellness industry, entertainment, and leisure.
Over the past year, the number of those wishing to work abroad has almost not changed (from 28% to 30%). At the same time, 53% of them are ready to invest earned money in starting a business in Ukraine in the future. Higher migration intentions are observed among young people (46%), residents of the regional center (33%), and wealthier respondents (43%).
Forty-one percent support granting Russian the status of a state language, 29% support granting it official status in certain regions, and 26% believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language.
Forty-seven percent of respondents do not consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine, while 28% hold the opposite view. One quarter were unable to answer this question.
The number of opponents of the pro-Western vector exceeds the number of supporters. At the same time, over the past year, support for Ukraine’s accession to the EU has slightly increased (from 24% to 29%), as has support for NATO accession (from 15% to 18%). The number of supporters of accession to the Customs Union has decreased (from 27% to 18%). At the same time, the share of those who support Ukraine’s equidistance from Russia and the West has increased (from 39% to 45%).

Methodology

On November, 16 – December, 4, 2018, within the framework of the project "Portraits of the Regions", the Rating Group has carried out a survey among the residents of Odesa region.
In general, 1,600 respondents took part in the research conducted with the use of personal interviewing method. The sample is based on the age and gender structure of the region, taking into account the settlement type.
The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.

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