“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Poltava Region

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12.12.2018

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Poltava Region

Within the framework of the “Portraits of Regions” project, the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Poltava region from November 16 to December 9, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the method of face-to-face interviews. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole worse than the situation at the local level.
Only 7% assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 40% consider the situation in the region to be calm and 54% see the situation in their city or village as calm. Almost 69% of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 21% as critical. At the local level, assessments of the situation are somewhat better: between 33% and 44% see the situation as tense, and only 7–10% consider it critical.
Respondents assess the correctness of the direction of development of the country and the region somewhat worse, at 14% and 15% respectively, than that of their city or village, which stands at 22%. The correctness of developments in one’s own city or village is rated higher by residents of small towns and villages than by residents of the regional center.
At the same time, despite negative assessments of the current situation, general expectations among residents of the region are rather negative-neutral. More than half of respondents believe that the situation, both in Ukraine and locally, will not change next year. About one quarter believe it will worsen. Only one in ten has optimistic expectations about the future.
The military conflict in eastern Ukraine, cited by 63%, and bribery and corruption in government, cited by 48%, are the two main nationwide problems according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about rising utility tariffs, mentioned by 64%, low wages and pensions, mentioned by 54%, and rising prices for basic goods and inflation, mentioned by 44%. Socio-economic problems such as low wages and pensions and inflation at the personal level are felt more acutely in the regional center and small towns.
The leader of the presidential rating is Yuliia Tymoshenko, whom 25.3% of those who have decided and intend to vote are ready to support. Volodymyr Zelenskyi is supported by 18.0%, Petro Poroshenko by 10.6%, Oleh Liashko by 8.5%, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 7.9%, and Yurii Boiko by 6.7%. Other candidates have ratings below 5%. At the same time, one in five residents of the region has not decided on a candidate, and the same share does not intend to vote.
Yuliia Tymoshenko is the candidate whose victory respondents believe in most. Over the past year, the share of those convinced of her victory increased from 18% to 29%. Fifteen percent are confident in the victory of Petro Poroshenko, compared to 23% in 2007. About 5% see Volodymyr Zelenskyi winning. No more than 3% believe in a positive result for other candidates. Confidence in favorites is mainly expressed by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
The negative rating is led by Petro Poroshenko. Fifty-two percent of respondents would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 28.7% of those who have decided and intend to vote. Servant of the People is supported by 16.1%, European Solidarity by 9.8%, Civic Position by 8.2%, the Radical Party by 7.9%, and the Opposition Bloc by 6.0%. Other parties have ratings below 4%. At the same time, almost one quarter of residents of the region have not decided on a party choice, and one in five does not intend to vote.
Orientation of a candidate toward closer cooperation with the European Union, cited by 66%, is a motive that has a significant influence on respondents’ presidential choice. Fifty-eight percent choose a candidate primarily because of leadership qualities, while for 33% the presence of a strong team is more important. Sixty percent consider experience in public office important, while 34% say belonging to a generation of “new” politicians is more important, a motive that is dominant among supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi. Fifty-seven percent prioritize the socio-economic program, while 34% focus on ideological views. Orientation toward solving national problems is a motive for 54% of respondents, while for 39% it is important that the candidate focuses on solving both national and regional problems. The choice between a candidate’s ability to ensure stability in the country or to implement radical changes divided respondents almost evenly.
Forty-six percent of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will not change as a result of the upcoming presidential elections. Another 24% believe the situation will improve, while 21% say it will worsen. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko are more likely than others to expect positive changes. Respondents who do not intend to vote or have not decided on their choice are relatively less likely to expect positive changes.
According to respondents, the likelihood of election fraud in the presidential elections is higher at the national level, at 53%, than at the regional level, at 35%, or the local level, at 24%. Another 40–50% allow for the possibility of minor falsifications.
Eleven percent of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Twenty-one percent take a neutral position on this issue, while 66% oppose this type of campaigning. A more favorable attitude toward the distribution of assistance by candidates is observed in the regional center.
Residents of the region assess the activity of local authorities somewhat better than that of central authorities. Ten percent of respondents are satisfied with the activity of President Petro Poroshenko, 12% with the activity of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and only 5% with the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, more than 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the activity of central authorities.
Over the year, the level of satisfaction with the activity of the regional state administration decreased somewhat, from 28% to 15%, as did satisfaction with city and village heads, from 43% to 38%. The share of those dissatisfied with the activity of the regional state administration increased slightly, from 64% to 67%, while dissatisfaction with city and village heads remained almost unchanged. Satisfaction with local leaders is significantly higher among residents of small towns and villages than in the regional center.
Respondents more often perceive an increase in corruption nationwide than in the region or at their place of residence. About half of respondents believe that the situation with bribery has not changed at either the central or local levels. Only 5–9% reported a decrease in corruption.
The overwhelming majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the situation in various sectors and services. In annual dynamics, all indicators show negative trends. Respondents speak most positively about the situation in agriculture and school education, although assessments of the latter have deteriorated significantly over the year. Significant declines were also observed in indices related to ecology, personal safety, the fight against corruption, social protection, and healthcare, with the last two rated worst by respondents.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated opportunities for recreation and leisure and the ability to live safely highest. The lowest ratings were given to opportunities for entrepreneurship. In cities, opportunities for recreation, job search, and safe living are rated higher. At the same time, residents of Poltava city assess opportunities for achieving success and engaging in entrepreneurship in their city very pessimistically. Younger and wealthier respondents rate all opportunities higher than older and poorer ones.
About 5% see high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their city or village over the next 5–10 years. Almost one third assess the potential as medium. More than 40% see low potential, and 13–17% see no opportunities for economic growth at either the national or local level. Younger respondents rate growth potential at all levels more highly.
More than half of respondents, at 59%, feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine, while 35% hold the opposite view. Respondents feel somewhat more pride in being residents of their region, at 70%, and of their city or village, at 74%. The most frequent sources of pride in the region are nature, cited by 38%, and history, cited by 37%. Twenty-six percent are proud of culture and art, 24% of traditions, 22% of local residents, 17% of natural resources, 14% each of landmarks and cuisine and culinary traditions, 12% of notable regional figures, and 10% of agriculture.
Almost 69% consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while 27% hold the opposite view. Younger and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. On the other hand, 36% of older respondents and 49% of those in the poorest category consider themselves unhappy.
Residents of the region most often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Kharkiv region. Among neighboring countries, residents consider themselves close to Russia, Belarus, and partly to Poland.
Almost 28% expressed a desire to start their own business, while 64% hold the opposite view. Three percent reported that they are already entrepreneurs. A higher desire to start a business is observed among younger and wealthier respondents. Among the latter, 12% stated that they are already engaged in business. Among those wishing to start a business, 31% would like to engage in trade, 11% in the catering sector and farming, 10% in construction, and 9% each in entertainment and leisure, tourism, and the beauty and health industry.
Twenty-seven percent of respondents expressed a desire to work abroad, while 68% hold the opposite view. Forty-eight percent are ready to invest earned money in starting a business in Ukraine in the future, while 34% did not express such intentions. Traditionally, higher migration intentions are observed among young people, at 50%, residents of the regional center, at 37%, and wealthier respondents, at 46%.
Eighty percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Nine percent support granting the Russian language official status in certain regions, and 8% support granting it state language status.
More than half of respondents, at 69%, consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine, while 21% hold the opposite view. One in ten was undecided.
Over the past year, the share of those supporting Ukraine’s accession to the European Union, at 52%, and NATO, at 41%, has remained almost unchanged. Among different vectors of foreign economic integration, the pro-European direction leads at 50%, 31% support Ukraine’s equidistance from Russia and the West, and only 7% support accession to the Customs Union.

Methodology

On November, 16 – December, 9, 2018, within the framework of the project "Portraits of the Regions", the Sociological Group "Rating" has carried out a survey among the residents of Poltava region.
In general, 1,600 respondents took part in the research conducted with the use of personal interviewing method. The sample is based on the age and gender structure of the region, taking into account the settlement type.
The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.

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