“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Rivne Region

Press

Download report (UKR)

14.12.2018

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Rivne Region

Within the framework of the “Portraits of Regions” project, the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Rivne region from November 16 to December 2, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the method of face-to-face interviews. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole somewhat worse than the situation at the local level.
Only 5% of respondents assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 30% consider the situation in their region to be calm, and 40% see the situation in their city or village as calm. Almost 60% of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 33% as critical. At the local level, assessments are somewhat better: between 40% and 50% of respondents consider the situation tense, and only about 10% consider it critical.
Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction of movement worse (17%) than that of the region (20%) or their city or village (27%). Residents of rural areas are particularly critical in assessing the direction of development of both the country and their locality. Among age groups, representatives of the middle generation are the most critical.
At the same time, despite negative assessments of the current situation, general expectations among residents of the region are rather neutral-positive. Only one in ten believes that the situation in Ukraine and at the local level will worsen next year. The overwhelming majority believe that the situation will not change, while one in five has optimistic expectations for the future.
The military conflict in eastern Ukraine (64%) and bribery and corruption in government (41%) are the two main nationwide problems according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about low wages and pensions (45%), rising utility tariffs (40%), and the war in Donbas (36%). Socio-economic problems such as low wages and pensions, unemployment, and inflation are felt more acutely in rural areas.
The leader of the presidential rating is Yuliia Tymoshenko, whom 22.5% of those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections are ready to support. Petro Poroshenko is supported by 16.4%, Volodymyr Zelenskyi by 15.1%, Oleh Liashko by 7.5%, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 7.3%, Oleksandr Shevchenko by 6.2%, and Sviatoslav Vakarchuk by 6.1%. Other candidates have ratings below 5%. At the same time, almost every fifth resident of the region has not decided on a candidate.
More than one quarter of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has nearly doubled. As last year, 16% are confident in the victory of Petro Poroshenko. About 8% believe that Volodymyr Zelenskyi will win. Fewer than 3% believe in a positive result for other candidates. Confidence in their favorites is mainly shown by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
The negative rating is led by Petro Poroshenko. Almost 40% of respondents would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 25.9% of those who have decided and intend to participate in elections. The Servant of the People party is supported by 16.8%, European Solidarity by 11.8%, the Radical Party by 7.9%, Civic Position by 7.8%, UKROP by 6.0%, and Svoboda by 4.4%. Other parties have ratings below 4%. At the same time, almost every fifth resident of the region has not decided on a party choice.
Orientation of a candidate toward closer cooperation with the European Union (87%), focus on solving the country’s problems (71%), and a socio-economic program (65%) are the motives that have a significant influence on respondents’ presidential choice. For 57%, the candidate’s ability to ensure radical changes in the country is important, while 40% say that ensuring stability is more important. Fifty-six percent choose a candidate primarily because of leadership qualities, while 36% consider the presence of a strong team more important. The choice between experience in state politics and belonging to the generation of “new” politicians divides respondents evenly. The latter motive dominates among supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, and Oleksandr Shevchenko.
Thirty-seven percent of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will improve as a result of the upcoming presidential elections. Forty-two percent believe the situation will not change, and only 10% think it will worsen. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, and Oleksandr Shevchenko more often expect positive changes. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who do not intend to vote or have not decided.
According to respondents, the likelihood of election fraud at the national level (46%) is higher than at the local level (33%). About 40% allow for minor falsifications.
At the same time, 17% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Eighteen percent take a neutral position on this issue. Sixty-three percent oppose this form of campaigning. More favorable attitudes toward candidates distributing assistance are found in rural areas and among poorer respondents.
Residents of the region assess the activity of local authorities significantly better than that of central authorities. Eighteen percent of respondents are satisfied with the performance of President Petro Poroshenko, the same share are satisfied with Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and only 6% with the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, more than 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the activity of central authorities. More critical assessments are found in rural areas.
Over the year, satisfaction with the activity of the regional state administration has somewhat decreased (from 28% to 22%), as has satisfaction with the work of city or village heads (from 42% to 38%). Satisfaction with local heads is higher among residents of small towns and villages than in the regional center.
Respondents more often observe an increase in the level of corruption in Ukraine as a whole than in the region or their place of residence. Half of respondents believe that the situation with bribery has not changed at either the central or local levels. Only 5–6% reported a decrease in corruption.
The vast majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the situation in various sectors and services. Over the year, most indicators show negative dynamics or no change. An exception is road conditions, the assessment of which improved over the year. The situation in school education is assessed relatively better. The worst evaluations concern the fight against bribery at the local level.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated opportunities for leisure and recreation and for living safely the highest, and entrepreneurship the lowest. Opportunities for leisure, success, and finding a job are rated higher by residents of the regional center, opportunities for entrepreneurship by residents of small towns, and living safely by rural residents. Younger and wealthier respondents rate all opportunities higher than older and poorer ones.
About 7% see high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their city or village over the next 5–10 years. About 40% assess it as medium. Only about one third see low potential, and 7–8% see no prospects for economic growth at all, both in Ukraine and locally. Residents of the regional center assess growth potential more critically.
The absolute majority of respondents (84%) feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine. Slightly more feel proud to be residents of their region (85%) and of their city or village (87%). Most often, respondents cited nature (49%) as a source of pride for their region. Thirty percent are proud of the history of their land, 20% of local traditions and residents, 18% of culture and art, 14% of natural resources, and 12% of sports achievements.
Almost 80% consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while 20% think otherwise. Urban residents, younger, and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. At the same time, one in five rural residents and one in three representatives of the older generation consider themselves unhappy.
Residents of the region more often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Lviv and Volyn regions. Among neighboring countries, residents feel closest to Belarus and Poland.
Almost 40% expressed a desire to start their own business. Seven percent reported that they are already entrepreneurs. A higher desire to start a business is observed among residents of the regional center, younger respondents, and wealthier individuals. Among the latter, one quarter reported already running a business. Among those wishing to start a business, 36% would like to engage in trade, 12–13% in services and leisure as well as farming, and 10–11% in construction, tourism, and the beauty and wellness industry.
Over the past year, the number of those wishing to work abroad has slightly increased (from 36% to 41%). At the same time, 60% of them are ready to invest earned money in starting a business in Ukraine in the future. Traditionally, higher migration intentions are observed among young people (55%), residents of the regional center (46%), and wealthier respondents (45%).
Eighty-seven percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Eight percent support granting Russian the status of an official language in certain regions, and 3% support granting Russian the status of a state language.
The absolute majority of respondents (86%) consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine. Only 9% hold the opposite opinion.
Over the past year, support for Ukraine’s accession to the European Union has increased (from 62% to 72%), as has support for NATO accession (from 48% to 59%). Among different directions of foreign economic integration, the pro-European vector leads (60%), 26% support equidistance from Russia and the West, and only 2% support accession to the Customs Union.

Methodology

On November, 16 – December, 2, 2018, within the framework of the project "Portraits of the Regions", the Rating Group has carried out a survey among the residents of Rivne region.
In general, 1,600 respondents took part in the research conducted with the use of personal interviewing method. The sample is based on the age and gender structure of the region, taking into account the settlement type.
The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.

Download report (UKR)