“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Zakarpattia Region

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19.12.2018

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Zakarpattia Region

Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Zakarpattia region between November 16 and December 13, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that respondents assess the situation at their place of residence more positively than the situation in the region and in the country as a whole.
Only 7% assessed the political situation in the country as calm. In their home region, 17% consider the situation calm, while in their own city or village this figure reaches 46%. Sixty-one percent of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 29% as critical. In the region, 66% consider the situation tense, while assessments are somewhat better in respondents’ own settlements, where 41% see the situation as tense. Only about 5% consider the situation at the local level to be critical.
Respondents also assess the correctness of the direction of the country’s development more negatively, at 12%, than that of the region, at 21%, or their own city or village, at 30%. The situation at the local level is assessed more positively by older respondents and residents of smaller towns and villages in the region.
Despite negative assessments of the current state of affairs, overall expectations among residents of the region are rather positive-neutral. Fifty-six percent believe that the situation in the country will not change, 25% think it will worsen next year, and 10% expect improvement. At the local level, 61–64% believe that the situation will remain unchanged, while 9–13% expect deterioration. Optimistic expectations for the coming year are expressed by 14% regarding the region and by 20% regarding their own settlement.
The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine, cited by 77%, is considered the most significant nationwide problem by residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are most concerned about rising utility tariffs, cited by 54%, and low wages and pensions, cited by 51%. At the personal level, problems of unemployment and access to medical services are felt more acutely in villages, while issues related to tariffs, inflation, social protection, corruption, war, and language rights are more troubling for residents of the regional center.
The leader of the presidential rating in the region is Yuliia Tymoshenko, supported by 20.3% of those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections. Petro Poroshenko is supported by 14.7%, Yurii Boiko by 9.5%, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 8.5%, Oleh Liashko by 8.3%, Vadym Rabinovych by 6.5%, Volodymyr Zelenskyi by 6.0%, Andrii Sadovyi by 5.6%, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk by 4.8%, and Oleksandr Shevchenko by 4.2%. Other candidates have ratings not exceeding 3%. One quarter of respondents do not intend to participate in voting, and one in ten residents of the region has not decided on a candidate.
Fourteen percent of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election, compared to 11% in 2017. Ten percent are confident in a victory by Petro Poroshenko, compared to 13% in 2017. About 3% consider a victory by Yurii Boiko likely. Fewer than 3% believe in a positive outcome for other candidates. Confidence in their favorites is expressed mainly by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko, Petro Poroshenko, and Oleksandr Shevchenko.
Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. Fifty-seven percent of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna is the leader, supported by 21.2% of those who have decided and intend to vote. The Bloc Petro Poroshenko “Solidarity” is supported by 15.1%, the Radical Party by 12.9%, Civic Position by 9.6%, the Opposition Bloc by 9.1%, and Self Reliance and UKROP by 6.1% each. Other parties have ratings below 4%. One in three residents of the region does not intend to vote, and one in nine has not decided on a party choice.
A candidate’s orientation toward closer cooperation with the European Union, cited by 83%, and the candidate’s socio-economic program, cited by 75%, are motives that have a significant influence on respondents’ presidential choice. For 52%, the candidate’s personal leadership qualities are important, while 46% indicate that the candidate’s team is more important. Fifty-two percent choose a candidate primarily based on experience in state politics, while for 43% affiliation with the group of “new politicians” is more important, especially among younger voters and supporters of Oleksandr Shevchenko, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, and Sviatoslav Vakarchuk. In addition, 53% focus on the candidate’s attention to their region, while 35% prioritize solving national problems. When choosing between radical change and ensuring stability, 54% prefer radical change, while 45% seek stability.
Thirty-four percent of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will improve as a result of the upcoming presidential elections. Twenty-five percent believe the situation will not change, while 22% believe it will worsen. Supporters of Oleksandr Shevchenko, Yuliia Tymoshenko, and Petro Poroshenko are more likely than others to expect positive changes. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who are undecided or do not intend to vote.
According to respondents, the likelihood of electoral fraud in the presidential elections is higher at the national level, at 58%, than at the regional level, at 41%, or in their city or village, at 33%. Another 30–40% of respondents allow for the possibility of minor falsifications. Ten percent believe that there will be no fraud in their settlement.
Only 5% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections, while 32% take a neutral position. Fifty-seven percent oppose this form of campaigning. Residents of cities are somewhat more favorable toward the distribution of assistance.
Residents of the region assess the performance of local authorities more positively than that of central authorities. Only 9–10% of respondents are satisfied with the performance of President Petro Poroshenko and Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and only 6% are satisfied with the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, more than 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the work of the central authorities.
Over the year, satisfaction with the work of the regional state administration increased somewhat, from 22% to 27%, while satisfaction with the work of city or village heads increased noticeably, from 28% to 41%. Residents of smaller towns and villages in the region express the highest satisfaction with local authorities.
About 60% believe that the situation with bribery has not changed at either the central or local level. Twenty-six percent observe an increase in corruption nationwide, while 13–17% observe it at the local level. A decrease in corruption at the national and regional levels was reported by about 11%, and at the level of their own city or village by 18%.
The vast majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the situation in various spheres. The highest evaluations are given to safety and school education. The worst assessments concern ecology and forest preservation, as well as support for youth. Over the past year, improvement has been observed in the area of personal safety, while deterioration has been noted in school education, healthcare, the fight against corruption, and youth support. Other indicators have remained almost unchanged.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the ability to rest and spend leisure time the highest, and the opportunity to engage in entrepreneurship the lowest. All areas of opportunity are rated higher by urban residents and wealthier respondents. Safety is rated somewhat higher by middle-aged respondents, while the opportunity to find a job and engage in entrepreneurship is rated higher by middle-aged and older respondents.
About 27% see high economic development potential for Ukraine over the next 5–10 years, while for the region and their own city or village this figure is 12–17%. About 50–60% assess the potential as moderate. At the national and regional levels, 15–17% see low potential, while at the level of their own settlement this figure reaches 23%. Only 1–2% see no opportunities for economic growth at all, either nationally or locally. Residents of small towns and middle-aged respondents assess growth potential more positively.
The majority of respondents, at 70%, feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine, with the oldest respondents being slightly more likely to feel this way. Eighteen percent do not feel pride. Between 76% and 77% feel proud to be residents of their region and their city or village. Most often, respondents cite nature as the main source of pride in their region, at 51%. Thirty-five percent are proud of local traditions, 29% of regional culture and cuisine, 27% of history, 25% of local residents, and 10–12% of natural resources and landmarks.
More than 60% consider themselves definitely or rather happy, while 27% hold the opposite view. Younger and wealthier respondents, as well as somewhat more rural residents, more often report personal happiness. At the same time, one in three urban residents and older respondents consider themselves unhappy, as do 40% of respondents from poorer groups.
Residents of the region most often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of neighboring Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Ternopil regions. Among neighboring countries, residents of the region consider themselves closest to Slovakia and Hungary.
More than 20% expressed a desire to start their own business, while 9% reported that they are already entrepreneurs. About 40% stated that they do not have such aspirations. A slightly higher desire to start a business is observed among residents of small towns and villages, younger respondents, and wealthier respondents. Among those wishing to start a business, 23% indicated that they would like to engage in trade, while about 13–14% would prefer farming or tourism.
Over the past year, the share of respondents wishing to work abroad decreased from 53% to 42%. Fifty-five percent of them are ready in the future to invest their earnings in starting a business in Ukraine, while 35% are not. Migration intentions are higher among youth, at 51%, rural residents, at 44%, and wealthier respondents, at 41–44%.
Eighty-two percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language, while 10% support granting Russian official status in certain regions.
The absolute majority of respondents, at 86%, consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine. Only 2% hold the opposite view, while 12% are undecided.
Support for Ukraine’s accession to the European Union remains high at 73%, although the share of those opposed to integration increased from 9% to 16%. Support for NATO membership decreased over the year from 67% to 61%, while the share of those opposed to NATO membership doubled from 10% to 20%. Among different directions of foreign economic integration, the pro-European vector leads at 72%, 21% support Ukraine maintaining equal distance from Russia and the West, and only 2% support accession to the Customs Union.

Methodology

On November, 16 – December, 13, 2018, within the framework of the project "Portraits of the Regions", the Sociological Group "Rating" has carried out a survey among the residents of Kherson region.
In general, 1,600 respondents took part in the research conducted with the use of personal interviewing method. The sample is based on the age and gender structure of the region, taking into account the settlement type.
The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.

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