“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Zhytomyr Region

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14.12.2018

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Zhytomyr Region

Within the framework of the “Portraits of Regions” project, the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Zhytomyr region from November 16 to December 2, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the method of face-to-face interviews. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole worse than the situation at the local level.
Only 6% assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 24% consider the situation in their home region to be calm, and 41% see the situation in their city or village as calm. Nearly 55% of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 34% as critical. At the local level, assessments are somewhat better: between 38% and 51% see the situation as tense, and about 14–17% as critical.
Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction of movement worse (16%) than that of the region (24%) or their city or village (29%). Residents of Zhytomyr city and small towns assess the direction of local development more critically. With regard to the direction of Ukraine’s movement, residents of the regional center are more pessimistic. Among age groups, representatives of the younger generation are the most critical.
At the same time, despite negative assessments of the current situation, general expectations among residents of the region are rather positive-neutral. One in five believes that the situation in Ukraine and at the local level will improve next year. Half of respondents believe that the situation will not change. Nevertheless, about 20% have negative expectations.
The military conflict in eastern Ukraine (61%) is the main nationwide problem according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about low wages and pensions (48%), rising utility tariffs (45%), and rising prices for basic goods and inflation (35%). Socio-economic problems such as low wages and pensions, unemployment, and inflation are felt more acutely in rural areas, while lack of opportunities for entrepreneurship and education, as well as rising crime, are more characteristic concerns in small towns.
The leader of the presidential rating is Yuliia Tymoshenko, whom 22.1% of those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections are ready to support. Volodymyr Zelenskyi is supported by 14.5%, Petro Poroshenko by 12.0%, Oleh Liashko by 11.9%, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 5.7%, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk by 5.5%, Yurii Boiko by 3.5%, and Yevhenii Murayev by 3.4%. Other candidates have ratings below 3%. At the same time, nearly one in five residents of the region has not decided on a candidate.
One in five believes that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has doubled. Eleven percent are confident in the victory of Petro Poroshenko (15% in 2017). Five percent see Volodymyr Zelenskyi winning, and about 4% expect Oleh Liashko to win. No more than 3% believe in a positive result for other candidates. Confidence in favorites is mainly expressed by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
The negative rating is led by Petro Poroshenko. Nearly 38% of respondents would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 25.1% of those who have decided and intend to vote. Servant of the People is supported by 16.3%, European Solidarity by 12.4%, the Radical Party by 10.6%, Civic Position by 5.3%, and the Opposition Bloc by 4.3%. Other parties have ratings below 4%. At the same time, nearly one quarter of residents of the region have not decided on a party.
Orientation of a candidate toward closer cooperation with the European Union (62%) is the motive that has a significant influence on respondents’ presidential choice. Other motives split respondents roughly in half. For 50%, the candidate’s ability to ensure radical changes in the country is important, while 42% stated that ensuring stability is more important to them. Forty percent said that experience in state politics is more important, while for half of respondents the candidate’s belonging to the generation of “new politicians” is important. The latter motive is dominant among supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, and Yevhenii Murayev. Forty-nine percent choose a candidate primarily because of leadership qualities, while for 43% the presence of a strong team is more important. Forty-seven percent choose based on the socio-economic program, and 43% based on ideological views. Respondents equally assess the importance of a candidate’s orientation toward solving problems of the country or of the region.
Thirty-five percent of respondents believe that the situation will not change as a result of the upcoming presidential elections, while 33% believe that it will improve. Fifteen percent state that it will worsen. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Yevhenii Murayev more often expect positive changes. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who do not intend to vote or have not decided on their choice.
According to respondents, the likelihood of election fraud at the nationwide level (36%) is higher than at the local level (25%). About 40% also allow the possibility of minor falsifications at all levels. At the same time, one quarter of respondents are convinced that there will be no fraud in their city or village.
At the same time, 15% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Thirty-one percent take a neutral position on this issue, while 51% oppose this type of campaigning. Poorer respondents are more favorable toward candidates distributing assistance.
Residents of the region assess the performance of local authorities significantly better than that of central authorities. Thirteen percent of respondents are satisfied with the activity of President Petro Poroshenko and Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and only 7% with the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, more than 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the activity of central authorities. More critical assessments are observed in the regional center.
Twenty-five percent of respondents are satisfied with the activity of the regional state administration (28% in 2017). Over the year, the level of satisfaction with the activity of the city or village head did not change (42%). Local leaders are rated more favorably in the regional center and in villages.
Respondents more often observe an increase in corruption in Ukraine as a whole than in the region or their place of residence. Half of respondents believe that the situation with bribery has not changed at either the central or local levels. Between 10% and 14% reported a decrease in corruption.
The overwhelming majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the situation in various sectors and services. In year-to-year dynamics, most indicators show no change. The situation in school education is rated relatively better. Assessments of road conditions and life safety improved significantly over the year. Respondents expressed the most negative views about the state of the environment.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the possibility of finding a job relatively higher, and the possibility of engaging in entrepreneurship the lowest. Opportunities for leisure and recreation and achieving success are rated higher by residents of the regional center, entrepreneurship by residents of small towns, and living safely by residents of villages. In general, urban residents rate job-search opportunities higher than rural residents. Younger and wealthier respondents rate all opportunities higher than older and poorer ones.
About 7% see high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their city or village over the next 5–10 years. About 40% assess this potential as medium. One third see low potential, and 10–13% see no prospects for economic growth at all, both nationally and locally. Residents of small towns assess growth potential more critically.
The majority of respondents (72%) feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine. The same share feel proud to be residents of their region, and 75% of their city or village. The older the respondents, the higher the level of pride. The most common source of regional pride is nature (56%). Forty percent are proud of their region’s history, 26% of culture and art, 24% of local residents, 18% of natural resources, 11% of notable people and landmarks, and 10% of traditions.
Sixty-nine percent consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while nearly 27% hold the opposite view. Residents of cities, younger respondents, and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. On the other hand, one third of older respondents and nearly half of poorer respondents consider themselves unhappy.
Residents of the region more often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Kyiv and Vinnytsia regions. Among neighboring countries, respondents consider themselves closest to Belarus and Poland, as well as Russia.
Nearly one third of respondents expressed a desire to start their own business. Seven percent reported that they are already entrepreneurs. Half do not have such aspirations. A higher desire to start a business is observed among residents of the regional center, younger respondents, and wealthier individuals. Among the latter, one in five stated that they already run a business. Among those wishing to start a business, 31% would like to engage in trade, 12% in construction and repair, 10% in farming, 10% in entertainment and leisure, and 9% in the beauty and health industry.
Over the past year, the share of those wishing to work abroad increased from 22% to 32%. At the same time, 60% of them are ready to invest earned money in starting a business in Ukraine in the future. Higher migration intentions are observed among young people (47%), residents of the regional center (38%), and respondents with average income levels (36%).
Seventy-four percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Fourteen percent support granting Russian official status in certain regions, and 9% support granting Russian the status of a state language.
More than half of respondents (64%) consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine. Twenty percent hold the opposite view, and 16% are undecided.
Over the past year, the share of those supporting Ukraine’s accession to the European Union decreased slightly from 61% to 57%, as did support for NATO accession (from 48% to 44%). At the same time, the number of opponents did not increase. Among directions of foreign economic integration, the pro-European vector leads with 51%, 34% support Ukraine’s equidistance from Russia and the West, and only 5% support accession to the Customs Union.

Methodology

On November, 16 – December, 2, 2018, within the framework of the project "Portraits of the Regions", the Rating Group has carried out a survey among the residents of Zhytomyr region.
In general, 1,600 respondents took part in the research conducted with the use of personal interviewing method. The sample is based on the age and gender structure of the region, taking into account the settlement type.
The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.

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