• In a hypothetical “second-round” runoff, only Arsenii Yatseniuk currently defeats Viktor Yanukovych, while Yuliia Tymoshenko and Vitalii Klitschko are almost tied with him but trail slightly.

Yanukovych vs Tymoshenko

• According to a survey by the Sociological Group “Rating,” if a presidential election had taken place in late September 2011 and Viktor Yanukovych and Yuliia Tymoshenko had advanced to the second round, 31.8% of respondents who intended to vote would have supported the incumbent president, 31.4% would have supported the former prime minister, 26.8% would not have supported either candidate, and 10% were undecided.
• Looking at the dynamics, in December 2010 Yanukovych was supported by 40% in a runoff against Tymoshenko; in March 2011 by 33%; in May 2011 by 34%; and in September 2011 by 32%. Tymoshenko, in turn, was supported by 30% in December 2010, 33% in March 2011, 32% in May 2011, and 31% in September 2011.
• Recall that in the most recent presidential election Yanukovych defeated Tymoshenko in the second round (49% to 45%). Thus, both politicians have seen declining support in head-to-head contests, but the decline has been more pronounced for the incumbent.
• Yanukovych is strongest in the South (52%) and the Donbas (51%), somewhat less so in the East (42%) and the North (27%). Tymoshenko is strongest in the West (49%), the Center (43%), and the North (41%). Among voters of other politicians, Yanukovych is most supported by supporters of Serhii Tihipko (57%), Petro Symonenko (25%), and undecided voters (21%). Tymoshenko is supported by backers of Anatolii Hrytsenko (51%), Oleh Tiahnybok (40%), and Arsenii Yatseniuk (39%). Most supporters of Vitalii Klitschko do not support either of the two.

Yanukovych vs Yatseniuk

• If Yanukovych and Yatseniuk had reached the second round in late September 2011, 29.3% would have supported Yanukovych, 34.6% Yatseniuk, 25.1% neither candidate, and 11% were undecided.
• In December 2010, Yanukovych led Yatseniuk 39% to 31%. By March 2011 it was 32% to 34%, in May 2011 32% to 32%, and in September 2011 29% to 35%. This shows a decline for Yanukovych and a rise for Yatseniuk.
• Yanukovych is strongest in the South (51%) and Donbas (48%), weaker in the East (41%) and North (23%). Yatseniuk is strongest in the West (61%), Center (41%), and North (38%). Yanukovych is backed in this matchup mainly by supporters of Tihipko (50%), Symonenko (23%), and undecided voters (18%). Yatseniuk is supported by voters of Hrytsenko (60%), Tymoshenko (59%), Tiahnybok (51%), and Klitschko (33%).
• Yatseniuk performs better against Yanukovych than Tymoshenko does, thanks to stronger support in the West and greater backing from voters of Tiahnybok and Klitschko. Notably, Tymoshenko’s supporters are more willing to support Yatseniuk against Yanukovych than Yatseniuk’s supporters are to support Tymoshenko.

Yanukovych vs Tiahnybok

• If Yanukovych and Oleh Tiahnybok had faced each other in a second round in late September 2011, 32.3% would have voted for Yanukovych, 16.8% for Tiahnybok, 38.2% for neither, and 12.7% were undecided.
• Yanukovych’s support in this matchup fell from 40% in December 2010 to 34% in March 2011, 36% in May 2011, and 32% in September 2011. Tiahnybok’s support fluctuated between 19% and 22%, ending at 17% in September 2011.
• Yanukovych is strongest in the Donbas (54%) and South (52%). Tiahnybok is strongest in the West (41%) and North (17%). Yanukovych is supported mainly by Tihipko’s voters (53%), Symonenko’s voters (23%), and undecided voters (23%). Tiahnybok is supported by voters of Hrytsenko (34%), Tymoshenko (30%), and Yatseniuk (26%). Most Klitschko supporters choose neither.

Yanukovych vs Klitschko

• If Yanukovych and Klitschko had reached the second round in late September 2011, 29.6% would have supported Yanukovych, 28.3% Klitschko, 28.3% neither, and 13.8% were undecided.
• In May 2011 Yanukovych led Klitschko 34% to 24%; by September 2011 this had narrowed to 30% to 28%, showing a decline for Yanukovych and growth for Klitschko.
• Yanukovych is strongest in the Donbas (53%) and South (50%). Klitschko is strongest in the West (45%), North (39%), Center (33%), and East (18%). Yanukovych is backed mainly by voters of Tihipko (47%), Symonenko (24%), and undecided voters (18%). Klitschko is supported by voters of Tiahnybok (57%), Hrytsenko (49%), Yatseniuk (46%), and Tymoshenko (40%).
• Importantly, none of these second-round pairings manage to attract the “against all” voters: more than 80% of them remain with their original choice.
• For reference, in the first round Yanukovych would have received 21%, Tymoshenko 18%, Yatseniuk 11.7%, Klitschko 6.6%, Symonenko 5.5%, Tiahnybok 3.5%, Tihipko 2.9%, and Hrytsenko 2.6%. “Against all” would be 10.7%, and 12.6% would be undecided.