23.12.2010
Protests and protest moods
- According to a survey conducted by the Rating Group in December 2010, almost 45% of respondents agreed with the statement that revolutionary sentiments are emerging in Ukraine: 13% were fully convinced of this and another 31% rather agreed than disagreed. At the same time, 41% of respondents disagreed with this statement (11% strongly disagreed and 30% rather disagreed), while 15% were undecided.
- Agreement that revolutionary sentiments are emerging was highest in Western and Central Ukraine, particularly among supporters of Svoboda (73%), Batkivshchyna (67%), Front for Change (59%), and UDAR (55%). By contrast, residents of the North, East, Donbas, and South were more likely to disagree, especially supporters of the Party of Regions, the Communist Party of Ukraine, and Strong Ukraine.
- More than one third of respondents (37%) believe that in the near future these revolutionary moods could turn into mass protests similar to the events of November 2004. Almost half (46%) do not believe this will happen, and 17% were undecided. The most radical expectations were expressed by supporters of Batkivshchyna (58%), Svoboda (56%), and Front for Change (52%), primarily in Western and Central Ukraine. The least likely to expect such protests are voters of the Party of Regions (23%). Notably, residents of Donbas (33%) are more likely to expect radicalization than those in the South (30%) or East (28%).
- It is worth noting that the number of respondents who are absolutely certain about radicalization is twice as small as those who rather expect it. Overall, only about one in ten Ukrainians is fully convinced that revolutionary sentiments are definitely emerging, and most of them also firmly believe that these sentiments will lead to mass protests similar to November 2004. This includes almost every fifth supporter of Batkivshchyna and Front for Change, and every fourth supporter of Svoboda.
- A plurality of respondents (47%) believe that such mass protests in Ukraine would most likely be driven by social issues (such as low living standards), while only 7% expect protests based on national issues (such as perceived threats to national interests). Another quarter think protests could be equally likely on both social and national grounds, and one in five could not answer. Expectations of socially driven protests are highest in the North (56%, particularly Kyiv), the East (52%), and the Center (51%), and lowest in the West (39%), where more than a third believe protests could arise equally from social and national causes. Nationally driven protests are most often expected in the South, where this view is expressed twice as frequently as in any other region.
- Supporters of Front for Change, Batkivshchyna, Strong Ukraine, and the Party of Regions are the most likely to expect protests based on social issues, while supporters of Svoboda are the least likely, with about half of them believing protests could occur equally on both social and national grounds.
- Nearly one third of respondents (31%) believe that Yuliya Tymoshenko could lead a protest movement in Ukraine if such mass actions occurred. Fifteen percent named Arseniy Yatseniuk, and 14% Oleh Tiahnybok. Smaller shares mentioned Vitalii Klychko (5%), Viktor Yushchenko (2%), and Anatolii Hrytsenko (2%). One quarter of respondents believe that none of the listed politicians would be able to lead such a protest movement. Tymoshenko was most often named in the North (41%), Donbas (38%), West (32%), and Center (30%). Yatseniuk was most often named in the West and Center (21% each), and Tiahnybok in the West (27%) and Donbas (19%). Tymoshenko was most often named by supporters of Batkivshchyna, UDAR, Strong Ukraine, and the Party of Regions; Yatseniuk by supporters of Front for Change and Svoboda; and Tiahnybok by supporters of Svoboda and Front for Change.
- A clear majority of respondents (60%) view the protests by entrepreneurs against the new Tax Code—particularly those held on Independence Square in Kyiv—as a civic protest against government actions rather than a political action. At the same time, 22% see them primarily as political, and 18% were undecided. These protests were most often seen as non-political in every region of Ukraine, especially in the North (73%), particularly Kyiv, and in the Center (69%). However, nearly one third of supporters of Strong Ukraine and the Party of Regions considered these protests to be more political in nature.
Methodology
- Survey population: adult population of Ukraine aged 18 and over.
- Sample size: 2,000 respondents.
- Method: face-to-face interviews using a structured questionnaire.
- Sampling error: no more than 3% for values close to 50%, 2.6% for values close to 30%, and 1.8% for values close to 10%.
- Fieldwork dates: 11–18 December 2010.
- Regions:
- West – Volyn, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Chernivtsi.
- Center – Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy.
- North – Kyiv city, Kyiv region, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Chernihiv.
- South – Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Odesa, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Sevastopol.
- East – Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv.
- Donbas – Donetsk, Luhansk.
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