Rating of support of unpopular reforms

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22.03.2010

Rating of support of unpopular reforms

More than half of respondents (56%) feel the threat of economic decline of the country. Remaining practically unchanged over the past six months, economic decline continues to lead in the so-called ranking of threats. Somewhat less frequently (41%) respondents pointed to growth of unemployment. This indicator is consistently second in the ranking, and over the past several months these fears have increased, especially in the industrial south-eastern regions of the country.
As a result of stabilization in the financial sector, the sense of threat of devaluation of the hryvnia decreased (from 31% in October last year to 24% in March this year).
After the presidential elections, the feeling of threat from abuse of power by the authorities decreased (in August last year almost 40% of Ukrainians felt this threat, while in March this year only a quarter did). After the victory of V. Yanukovych, the sense of threat from abuse of power in the south-eastern regions decreased twofold.
Over the last six months, the sense of threat of social degradation of the population decreased (from 21% to 16%), nevertheless this threat remains fifth in the ranking.
Next in the ranking of threats are environmental disasters (15%), deterioration of medical services (15%), and growth of crime (14%).
Compared to October last year, citizens’ fears of the country splitting and loss of independence have almost doubled. This is especially relevant for the West, where one in five expects an усилення of the country’s split, one in four — loss of independence, one in ten — loss of Ukraine’s control over the gas transit system, an anti-constitutional coup, and a military threat from Russia.
The strengthening of ideological threats is characteristic of supporters of most opposition parties. Moreover, among them there is a gradual shift from economic to ideological threats.
For example, among BYuT supporters, against the background of increased feelings of a split of the country and loss of independence, fears of economic decline and devaluation of the hryvnia decreased.
Meanwhile, among Party of Regions supporters, feelings of threat from economic decline, growth of unemployment, deterioration of medical services, environmental disasters, etc. have increased.
Only about one quarter of the population expressed readiness, under certain circumstances, to support unpopular reforms.
Steps by the authorities aimed at saving state funds through limiting certain benefits, raising tariffs, etc., are supported under any circumstances by only 3% of respondents.
17% are ready to support them if the authorities prove these steps are really necessary for the country.
Another 7% are ready to support them if these reforms do not directly affect them.
Meanwhile, 61% are not ready to support unpopular reforms:
– 18% because they do not believe the authorities will limit themselves as well as the people;
– 8% because they do not believe in the effectiveness of such measures;
– 35% because of rejection of unpopular reforms as such.
The strongest resistance to unpopular reforms exists in the South and East, while the greatest readiness to support them is in the North.
Supporters of different political forces relate to such reforms almost equally negatively, although somewhat higher readiness can be seen among supporters of Arseniy Yatsenyuk’s Front for Change, and greater uncertainty among the electorate of the CPU and Party of Regions.
Despite the low level of support for unpopular reforms, 45% of respondents expect such steps from the new government. The most — in the West, North, and Center (about 50%), and the least — in the South (32%). It should be noted that supporters of the Party of Regions, Strong Ukraine, and CPU expect unpopular steps from the new authorities the least.
The study shows a certain relationship: people who better understand the threat of economic decline are more inclined to support unpopular reforms. At the same time, only half of them expressed readiness to support such decisions.
If the authorities take such unpopular steps, 7% of Ukraine’s residents are ready to participate in mass protests, and another 13% would support a political force that demands cancellation of such decisions.
The most ready to personally participate in protests are residents of the West, North, East, and South, as well as supporters of the CPU, BYuT, and Strong Ukraine. Thus, protest against unpopular reforms does not have a single political, ideological, or regional vector.
About 6% are ready to actively support a political force that advocates unpopular reforms. Meanwhile, 54% of Ukrainians will not participate in any actions, either in support or protest, and one in five could not decide.
Among possible reforms, the greatest support was for those that do not affect most people: abolition of privileges for civil servants (43%) and reducing their numbers (34%).
Much lower support was given to: stricter responsibility for non-payment of utilities (14.7%), cuts to budget-sector employees (13.8%), paid health insurance (12.1%), higher taxes on business (11.1%), and cuts to transport benefits (8.6%).
Almost no support was given to: raising utility tariffs (0.9%), raising gas prices (0.9%), raising public transport fares (1.5%), partial cancellation of benefits for Chernobyl victims (1.6%), reducing childbirth payments (2.1%), partial cancellation of benefits for “children of war” (2.5%), raising retirement age (2.5%), freezing pension increases (3.4%), freezing salary increases (3.5%), and allowing banks to seize collateral from borrowers (3.5%).
31% said they support none of the reforms, and another 10% were undecided.
Only 38% believe in the capacity of the new parliamentary coalition, while 43% do not. The strongest belief is among Party of Regions supporters (66%), as well as among CPU (48%), Lytvyn Bloc (33%), and Strong Ukraine (33%) — mainly in the South, Donbas, and East.
Among opposition supporters, the least faith is among Our Ukraine (8%), BYuT (17%), and Front for Change (24%) — mainly in the West, Center, and North.
Opinions on early parliamentary elections are split evenly: 41% in favor, 41% against. The strongest support is among Party of Regions supporters (47%). Yanukovych’s electorate is much more mobilized: 75% are ready to vote if elections were held next Sunday, compared to 64% of BYuT, 61% of Front for Change, and 57% of Strong Ukraine supporters.
The least supportive are CPU and Lytvyn Bloc supporters.
Only 31% support postponing local elections, 41% oppose, 28% undecided. Support is highest among coalition parties: Party of Regions (52%), Lytvyn Bloc (51%), CPU (49%), Strong Ukraine (43%). The lowest support is among Front for Change (19%) and BYuT (19%).