Threat rating: dynamics

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24.03.2011

Threat rating: dynamics

According to a survey conducted by the Rating Group in March 2011, the five biggest threats facing the country were identified as: economic decline (named by 53% of respondents), rising unemployment (47%), devaluation of the hryvnia (23%), abuse of power by the authorities (23%), and population degradation (18%).
Further down the ranking of perceived threats are deterioration of healthcare (15%), rising crime (13%), environmental disasters (13%), mass emigration of Ukrainians abroad (11%), national division (9%), demographic crisis (9%), possible loss of independence (9%), the threat of civil war (8%), and deterioration in the level of education (7%).
In addition, 6% of respondents fear losing control over Ukraine’s gas transit system, 5% fear an unconstitutional coup, 3% fear a military threat from Russia, 2% fear terrorism, and 1% fear a military threat from the West. Only 2% of Ukrainians say they do not feel any threats at all.
Trends
Over the past year (the previous survey was conducted in March 2010), concern about economic decline has slightly decreased nationwide, from 56% to 53%. This trend is seen in all regions except Donbas, where the share of those fearing economic decline increased from 60% to 67%.
Fears of environmental disasters (from 15% to 13%), national division (from 14% to 9%), loss of control over the gas transit system (from 8% to 6%), and an unconstitutional coup (from 8% to 5%) have also declined.
At the same time, Ukrainians have become more concerned about rising unemployment (from 42% to 47%), population degradation (from 16% to 18%), mass emigration abroad (from 7% to 11%), demographic crisis (from 6% to 9%), the threat of civil war (from 5% to 8%), and deterioration in the education system (from 5% to 7%).
As a year earlier, about one quarter of Ukrainians continue to fear devaluation of the hryvnia and abuse of power by the authorities, while almost one in six fear declining healthcare and rising crime.
In Western Ukraine, the strongest increases were recorded in fears of rising unemployment, abuse of power, population degradation, and environmental disasters, while concerns about hryvnia devaluation, national division, loss of independence, and a military threat from Russia declined.
In Central Ukraine, the biggest increases were in fears of unemployment, deterioration of healthcare, mass emigration, demographic crisis, civil war, and worsening education. At the same time, fears of hryvnia devaluation, abuse of power, rising crime, and national division declined.
In the North, fears of unemployment and hryvnia devaluation increased most, while concern about environmental disasters and national division decreased.
In the East, fears of unemployment, deterioration of healthcare, and declining education increased, while concern about abuse of power and population degradation declined.
In the South, fears of worsening healthcare, population degradation, and civil war increased most, while fears of abuse of power, national division, and a military threat from the West declined.
In Donbas, the biggest increases were in fears of hryvnia devaluation, rising crime, and the demographic crisis, while concern about environmental disasters declined.

Methodology

Survey population: population of Ukraine aged 18 and older.
Sample size: 2000 respondents.
Method: face-to-face formalized interview using a questionnaire.
Sampling error (at 0.95 probability): for values close to 50% — no more than 2.2%, close to 30% — no more than 2.0%, close to 10% — no more than 1.3%, close to 5% — no more than 1.0%.
Fieldwork dates: 4–14 March 2011.
Regional breakdown:
- West — Volyn, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Chernivtsi.
- Center — Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy.
- North — Kyiv city, Kyiv region, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Chernihiv.
- South — Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Odesa, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Sevastopol.
- East — Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv.
- Donbas — Donetsk, Luhansk.