Ratings of politicians in Kyiv elections: May 2013

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31.05.2013

Ratings of politicians in Kyiv elections: May 2013

According to a survey conducted by the Rating Group, if the Kyiv mayoral election had taken place in May 2013, about 60% of voters would have participated.
Among those intending to vote, 35.9% would have supported Vitalii Klitschko, 17.1% Oleksandr Popov, and more than 11% Petro Poroshenko.
More than 5% would have supported Mykola Tomenko, about 4% Andrii Illienko, about 3% Mykola Katerynchuk, and about 2% each Anatolii Hrytsenko and Oleh Liashko. Around 3% would have voted for other candidates, while about one in six remained undecided.
Compared to March 2013, support increased for V. Klitschko (from 31% to 36%), P. Poroshenko (from 7% to 11%), and M. Katerynchuk (from 1% to 3%). Meanwhile, support for O. Popov declined (from 20% to 17%). The share of undecided voters also decreased (from 25% to 15%). Due to the dominance of opposition sentiment in Kyiv, most undecided voters shifted toward candidates associated with the opposition. Popov also partially lost support to Poroshenko, as their electorates were similar and oriented mainly toward older voters. Klitschko and Katerynchuk, meanwhile, were more youth-oriented candidates.
Women showed higher support for Katerynchuk, Poroshenko, and Popov, and there were also more undecided voters among women. Men showed higher support for Hrytsenko, Illienko, and Klitschko.
If the mayoral election had been held in two rounds and the runoff had included Oleksandr Popov and Vitalii Klitschko, about 25% would have supported Popov and more than 70% Klitschko, while about 5% would have remained undecided.
If the runoff had been Popov vs. Poroshenko, about one third would have supported Popov, 57% Poroshenko, and about 10% would have remained undecided.
If the runoff had been Popov vs. Katerynchuk, about 40% would have supported Popov, 47% Katerynchuk, and 16% would have remained undecided.
If Kyiv City Council elections had been held at that time, among those intending to vote: 27.5% would have supported UDAR, 14.2% Batkivshchyna, 13.6% Svoboda, and almost 10% the Party of Regions. Other parties would have received less than 5% each. Nearly one quarter remained undecided.
Compared to March 2013, the most significant growth was recorded for Svoboda (from 11% to 14%). Batkivshchyna, the Party of Regions, and the Communist Party slightly strengthened their positions, and support for the European Party also increased. UDAR’s support remained largely unchanged.
UDAR was mainly supported by younger voters, while older voters were more represented among Batkivshchyna, the Party of Regions, and undecided voters. Men showed greater support for Svoboda and UDAR. Women were more represented among undecided voters and supporters of Batkivshchyna and the Party of Regions. Compared to March, the share of men among Svoboda supporters increased, while it decreased among UDAR supporters.

Methodology

Survey population: Kyiv residents aged 18+
Sample size: 1,002 respondents
Method: telephone survey, representative by age, gender, and district of Kyiv
Margin of error (95% confidence):
- up to 3.1% (around 50% values),
- 2.8% (around 30%),
- 2% (around 10%)
Fieldwork period: May 20–26, 2013