• According to the results of a study conducted by the Rating Group, if the presidential election of Ukraine were held in March 2012, 45% of respondents would definitely take part, and another 32% would probably take part.
• If the presidential election of Ukraine were held in March 2012, 21.7% of respondents (among those who would take part in the election) would vote for Viktor Yanukovych, 19.8% for Yulia Tymoshenko, 10.8% for Arseniy Yatsenyuk, 7.9% for Vitali Klitschko, 6.2% for Petro Symonenko, 3.8% for Serhiy Tihipko, 3.6% for Oleh Tyahnybok, 3.1% for Anatoliy Hrytsenko, 1.4% for Nataliya Korolevska, 1.3% for Volodymyr Lytvyn, and 0.7% for Viktor Yushchenko. Other candidates were supported by 3.4%, 3.8% would not support any candidate, and 12.5% were undecided.

TRENDS:
Compared with February, the number of the undecided decreased (from 14.1% to 12.5%) and the number of “against all” also decreased (from 6% to 3.8%).

• Unlike Yulia Tymoshenko, whose rating remained almost unchanged (19.4% in February versus 19.9% in March), the rating of Viktor Yanukovych increased (from 19.7% to 21.7%), which allowed him to widen the gap from the Batkivshchyna leader to almost 2%.
• At the same time, Arseniy Yatsenyuk’s rating declined (from 12.8% to 10.8%), repeating the dynamics of the Front for Change party, while Vitali Klitschko’s rating increased (from 6.5% to 7.9%).
• The positions of Petro Symonenko, Oleh Tyahnybok, Anatoliy Hrytsenko, and Nataliya Korolevska improved slightly.
• Despite the fact that in the “first-round rating” Viktor Yanukovych is currently leading, in a conditional “second-round” contest the incumbent president would be defeated by Yulia Tymoshenko, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, and Vitali Klitschko. Moreover, over the past six months, the lead in favor of opposition candidates has increased. As six months ago, Arseniy Yatsenyuk shows the largest lead against Viktor Yanukovych (despite the fact that in the first-round personal rating he trails both Yanukovych and Tymoshenko by about half).

YANUKOVYCH vs. TYMOSHENKO

• According to the Sociological Group “Rating,” if the presidential election of Ukraine were held in March 2012 and Viktor Yanukovych and Yulia Tymoshenko reached the second round, then 30% of respondents (among those who intend to vote) would support the incumbent president, 36.6% would support the former prime minister, 23.7% would support neither candidate, and 9.8% would be undecided.
• It should be recalled that in the last presidential election Yanukovych defeated Tymoshenko in the second round (49% to 45%).
• Yanukovych is most supported in the South (52%) and Donbas (44%), and somewhat less in the East (41%). Tymoshenko, in turn, is most supported in the West (68%), the Center (41%), and the North (46%). Among supporters of other potential candidates, Yanukovych in a contest against Tymoshenko is most supported by Tihipko’s supporters (33%) and Symonenko’s supporters (29%).
• The leader of Batkivshchyna is supported by Yatsenyuk’s supporters (54%), Tyahnybok’s (51%), Klitschko’s (40%), and Hrytsenko’s (36%). It should be noted that over the past six months Tymoshenko increased her support among supporters of Yatsenyuk, Tyahnybok, and Klitschko, which raised her second-round rating from 31% to 37%.

YANUKOVYCH vs. YATSENYUK

• If the presidential election of Ukraine were held in late March 2012 and Viktor Yanukovych and Arseniy Yatsenyuk reached the second round, then 29% of respondents would support the incumbent president, 38.1% would support the leader of Front for Change, 21.5% would support neither candidate, and 11.4% would be undecided.
• Over the past six months Yatsenyuk increased his second-round rating from 35% to 37%, partly due to growing support among supporters of Tyahnybok, Tymoshenko, and Klitschko.
• Yanukovych is most supported against Yatsenyuk in the South (51%), Donbas (44%), and East (40%). Yatsenyuk is most supported in the West (69%), the North (48%), and the Center (37%). Among voters of other politicians, Yanukovych is most supported by Tihipko’s supporters (36%), although this support has declined noticeably, and by Symonenko’s supporters (29%).

YANUKOVYCH vs. TYAHNYBOK

• If the presidential election of Ukraine were held in late March 2012 and Viktor Yanukovych and Oleh Tyahnybok reached the second round, 31.2% would support the incumbent president, 24.4% would support the Svoboda leader, 31.5% would support neither candidate, and 12.9% would be undecided.
• Over the past six months Tyahnybok increased his second-round rating from 17% to 24%, especially in the West (up to 61%) and the North (up to 32%). This growth can be partly attributed to opposition unification, since support for Tyahnybok in the second round rose among Batkivshchyna supporters from 30% to 48%, and among Front for Change supporters from 26% to 44%.
• Yanukovych has his highest second-round rating in a contest against Tyahnybok, especially in the South (53%), Donbas (47%), and East (41%). The Center most rejects the Yanukovych–Tyahnybok pairing, where almost half oppose both candidates. At least one third of voters in the South, Donbas, East, and North also oppose both candidates.

YANUKOVYCH vs. KLITSCHKO

• If the presidential election of Ukraine were held in late March 2012 and Viktor Yanukovych and Vitali Klitschko reached the second round, 28.1% would support the incumbent president, 36.6% would support the UDAR leader, 21.4% would support neither candidate, and 13.9% would be undecided.
• Over the past six months Klitschko increased his second-round rating from 28% to 37%, partly due to growing support among supporters of Tyahnybok, Tymoshenko, and Yatsenyuk.
• Yanukovych is most supported in the South (47%), Donbas (44%), and East (38%). Klitschko is most supported in the West (66%), North (54%), and Center (57%), as well as in the East (23%).
• Among supporters of other politicians, Yanukovych is most supported by Tihipko’s supporters (35%) and Symonenko’s (27%). Klitschko is supported by Tyahnybok’s supporters (64%), Tymoshenko’s (62%), Yatsenyuk’s (58%), Hrytsenko’s (46%), and also by one quarter of the undecided.