Mysterious “AGAINST ALL”

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25.10.2011

Mysterious “AGAINST ALL”

According to the results of studies conducted by the Rating Group over the last three years, the number of respondents who intend not to support any party (vote “against all”) in elections to the Verkhovna Rada has been steadily increasing.
Thus, in mid-2009 about 8% of voters intended to vote “against all”; on the eve of the presidential election — 5%. In the first round of the presidential election, 2.2% voted “against all”, and in the second round — 4.4%.
Immediately after the presidential election, the share of “against all” decreased to 2%, and from summer 2010 it has been rising continuously: June 2010 — 5%, October 2010 — 8%, March 2011 — 10%, May 2011 — 12%, and finally September 2011 — 13% of voters. It should be noted that these figures are calculated among respondents who intend to take part in elections. Among all respondents, the share of “against all” is even higher.
Also, since October of last year, the number of respondents who do not intend to vote at all increased from 16% to 26%.
The number of voters who intend to vote but have not yet decided has also increased. However, whereas in 2009–2010 the number of undecided voters consistently exceeded the number of “against all”, in 2011 the number of “against all” voters for the first time consistently exceeds the number of undecided.
The results of the analysis indicate that the ranks of “against all”, non-voters, and the undecided have been filled mostly by former supporters of the Party of Regions and Strong Ukraine.
This is confirmed by the structure of the “protest” electorate, more than half of which comes from the South-East, namely the East and Donbas.
In turn, the West contributes one quarter of the undecided, and Donbas also contributes about one quarter of this group.
Men are more inclined to vote “against all” or to ignore elections, while women are more likely to be undecided. “Against all” is most common in cities, while the undecided are more common in villages. A significant part of the “against all” group and non-voters consists of young people. Non-working citizens are more inclined to vote “against all” or not vote at all, while working people are more likely to be undecided. The undecided have higher levels of education and income than the “against all” group.
Only one in five (21%) of those who intend to come to the polls and vote “against all” considers the possibility of changing their position and voting for a specific party in the next elections. More than half do not even consider such a possibility, and 27% have not yet decided.
If under the new election law they are not allowed to vote “against all”, then 35% of them intend to ignore the elections, 42% have not yet decided, and the rest may vote for specific parties, most often for Front for Change (5.4%), the Party of Regions (4.8%), the Communist Party (3%), UDAR (2.8%), and Civic Position (1.8%).
It should be noted that none of the leading politicians can count on more than 15% trust from the “against all” category. The greatest chances of gaining at least part of their sympathy are V. Klitschko (14%), A. Yatsenyuk (13%), and A. Hrytsenko (11%). The least trusted by the “against all” group are V. Yushchenko (1%), O. Tyahnybok (3%), and Y. Tymoshenko (5%).
The undecided are less categorical in their attitudes toward politicians. One third trust V. Klitschko, almost one in five trust A. Yatsenyuk, V. Yanukovych, and A. Hrytsenko, and one in six trust Y. Tymoshenko.
People who vote “against all” do so because they do not believe politicians (52%) and do not trust political power as such (45%).
One third vote “against all” because they are disappointed in their previous preferences, express protest (31%), have no one to vote for (29%), or do not want their vote to be stolen (23%).
At the same time, one in five believes their vote does not matter, 8% do not know whom to vote for, 6% do not understand politics, and 4% vote “against all” because others do so.
According to 69% of respondents, voting “against all” is a conscious choice (a principled position); only 20% believe it is an unwillingness to take responsibility for one’s choice, while 11% are undecided.
The view that it is a conscious choice is most common in the North (76%) and Donbas (74%).
Besides the vast majority of the “against all” group itself (88%), this view is also shared by those who will not vote (72%) and supporters of the Communist Party (72%).
The opinion that it reflects an unwillingness to take responsibility is most widespread among supporters of Svoboda (32%), the Party of Regions (27%), and Batkivshchyna (26%).
At the same time, 65% of respondents believe that the position “not to go to elections” is also a conscious choice, while only 23% see it as an unwillingness to take responsibility; 12% are undecided.
Again, the view of a conscious choice is most strongly shared by the “against all” group (81%) and by those who do not intend to vote (70%).
The view that it reflects unwillingness to take responsibility is most common among supporters of Batkivshchyna (28%), Svoboda (32%), and the Party of Regions (32%).
Thus, the positions “not to vote” and “against all” are quite similar.
However, those who do not intend to vote do so mainly because there is no one to vote for, whereas the “against all” group primarily does not trust political power as such. This is the key difference between these two categories — and it represents a clear and quite dangerous signal not only to the government, but also to the opposition and to society as a whole.

Methodology

Survey population: population of Ukraine aged 18 and over.
Sample size: 2,000 respondents.
Method: face-to-face formalized interviews.
Margin of error (95% confidence):
– near 50%: not more than 2.2%
– near 30%: not more than 2.0%
– near 10%: not more than 1.3%
– near 5%: not more than 1.0%
Fieldwork period: September 17–27, 2011.
Regional breakdown:
- West: Volyn, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Chernivtsi
- Center: Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy
- North: Kyiv city, Kyiv region, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Chernihiv
- South: Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Odesa, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Sevastopol
- East: Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv
- Donbas: Donetsk, Luhansk