13.11.2018
Monitoring of the electoral moods of Ukrainians
- According to the results of the joint sociological study conducted by the three research organizations, 78% of Ukrainians believe that the country is moving in the wrong direction. Only 12% consider the direction of the country’s development to be correct, which represents a deterioration compared to the previous month, when this share stood at 15%. Another 11% of respondents were unable to answer this question.
- Assessments of the direction of development at the local level are also predominantly negative, although they are somewhat better than evaluations at the national level. In particular, 64% of respondents believe that their oblast is developing in the wrong direction, while 17% assess it as moving in the right direction. Similarly, 58% negatively evaluate the situation in their settlement, whereas 26% give a positive assessment.
- In the view of most respondents, peace is the issue Ukraine lacks the most today, with 64% pointing to this factor. Stability is identified by 41% as a key deficit, order by 40%, while prosperity and development are mentioned by 35–36%. Unity and justice are named by 27% each. The issue of peace is especially salient in Galicia and Donbas, stability is more important for the South, development and prosperity for the East, and unity for Donbas. Order and justice are considered equally important across almost all macro-regions.
- Economic decline and the mass emigration of Ukrainians abroad are seen as the most pressing threats facing Ukraine today, each cited by 59% of respondents. Poverty is mentioned by 51%. Other threats, such as the devaluation of the hryvnia, population decline, the disintegration of the country, rising crime, and deterioration of public health, are mentioned by 32–39% of respondents. More than one quarter consider a full-scale war with Russia, a power vacuum, and societal degradation to be relevant threats, while every fifth respondent points to potential environmental disasters. Economic decline is more often perceived as a threat in the South, while mass emigration is more salient in Galicia. Concerns about currency devaluation, depopulation, state collapse, crime, and societal degradation are stronger in the southeastern regions. Respondents from Galicia and the Center more often emphasize the risks of full-scale war with Russia and political chaos.
- At the national level, the war in the East and bribery and corruption in government are identified as the two main problems, cited by 66% and 43% respectively. Unemployment and low wages are considered nationwide problems by about one third of respondents.
- At the personal level, respondents most often mention rising utility tariffs, low wages and pensions, and increasing prices for basic goods as their main concerns. The war in the East is perceived as a personal problem by 28% of respondents. Bribery and corruption, lack of employment, and poor-quality healthcare are mentioned by 17–19%, while insufficient social protection concerns 11%.
- Yuliya Tymoshenko remains the leader of the presidential рейтинг, significantly outpacing her closest competitors. Among those who have decided on their choice and intend to vote, 21% are ready to support Tymoshenko. Volodymyr Zelenskyi is supported by 11%, Petro Poroshenko and Anatolii Hrytsenko by 10% each, Yurii Boiko by 9%, Oleh Liashko by 8%, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk by 6%, and Yevhenii Muraiev by 5%. Other candidates have support below 5%. Over the past six months, Tymoshenko’s rating has increased noticeably, while Zelenskyi’s support has nearly doubled against the backdrop of declining ratings for Vakarchuk. The emergence of Muraiev as a candidate has significantly reduced support for Vadym Rabinovych.
- Tymoshenko leads electoral preferences in all macro-regions except Donbas, where she trails Yurii Boiko. At the same time, Petro Poroshenko tops the negative rating, with more than half of respondents stating that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
- Every fifth voter believes that Yuliya Tymoshenko will become the next President of Ukraine. Fourteen percent believe in Petro Poroshenko’s victory, while fewer than 4% expect any other politician to win the presidency. Over the past six months, the share of respondents who believe in Tymoshenko’s victory has almost doubled, while expectations regarding Poroshenko have remained largely unchanged.
- Second-round simulations show that Tymoshenko would win in all likely electoral pairings, whereas Poroshenko would lose against any potential opponent in the runoff.
- Seven political parties currently have significant chances of entering parliament. Batkivshchyna remains the leader, supported by 22% of decided voters who intend to vote. The Servant of the People party is supported by 11%, Civic Position by 10%, the Opposition Bloc by 9%, Petro Poroshenko Bloc “Solidarity” by 8%, the Radical Party by 7%, and Yevhenii Muraiev’s party “Nashi” by 5%. Over the past six months, support has increased for Batkivshchyna, Servant of the People, and UKROP, while the emergence of the “Nashi” project has significantly reduced support for the party “For Life.”
- For nearly half of respondents, the main motive when choosing a political party is support for its socio-economic initiatives. Eighteen percent vote primarily based on sympathy for the party leader, and 12% based on ideological principles. Voting motivated by socio-economic initiatives dominates among voters of almost all leading political parties.
- Two thirds of respondents believe that Ukraine most urgently needs economic reforms. Social reforms are considered a priority by 43%, anti-corruption reforms by 37%, political reforms by 16%, and humanitarian and security reforms by about 10%. Over the past five months, the perceived importance of social reforms has increased somewhat, while the salience of anti-corruption reforms has declined.
- Opposition to the sale of agricultural land remains very strong: 72% are against lifting the moratorium, while only 13% support the introduction of a land market. Support for land reform is somewhat higher among younger and wealthier respondents. There is no significant difference between urban and rural residents, as the overwhelming majority in both groups oppose land sales, with rural residents even slightly more critical.
- Public support for European integration and NATO membership remains in place. EU membership is supported by half of respondents, while 30% are opposed. NATO membership has slightly more supporters than opponents, with 40% in favor and 36% against. Pro-Western orientations are stronger among residents of central and western regions, younger people, and wealthier respondents. However, over the past two years, support for both EU and NATO membership has slightly declined.
- When forced to choose a single vector of foreign economic integration, 47% support joining the European Union, while only 11% support joining the Customs Union. At the same time, 30% believe Ukraine should remain equally distant from both Europe and Russia. Notably, supporters of EU integration tend to maintain their position consistently, whereas two thirds of those opposed to integration with Europe favor neutrality, and only one quarter support joining the Customs Union.
- When asked to choose between military blocs and neutrality, 39% support joining NATO, 35% favor a non-aligned status, and only 9% support joining the CSTO. The vast majority of NATO supporters maintain their preference under these conditions, while nearly 70% of those opposed to NATO favor neutrality rather than alignment with the CSTO.
- Support for peaceful approaches to resolving the conflict in Donbas has increased slightly over the past month. Thirty-one percent support ending hostilities and recognizing these territories as temporarily occupied, while 27% favor granting them a federative status within Ukraine. Only 8% support separation of these territories from Ukraine, and 17% remain undecided. At the same time, 17% believe military action should continue until full restoration of Ukrainian control, down from 21% previously.
- Finally, 63% of respondents consider Russia to be an aggressor toward Ukraine. Twenty-two percent hold the opposite view, and 15% are undecided. The highest shares of those who do not consider Russia an aggressor, or who are unsure, are found in the South, East, and Donbas.
Methodology
Results of the joint survey of KIIS, Razumkov Center, and Sociological Group Rating.
- Sample: 10 000 respondents in all regions of Ukraine (excluding the population of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts). The sample is representative for the population of Ukraine aged 18 and older in terms of gender, age, type of settlement, and region of residence.
- The margin of error does not exceed 1.0%.
- Fieldwork dates: 19 October – 2 November, 2018
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