10.10.2012
Electoral moods: District 122
- According to the results of a survey conducted by the Rating Group, the clear leader of electoral preferences in the multi-member constituency #122 is VO Batkivshchyna. If elections were held, 43.3% of respondents who intend to take part in them (more than 90% of the district) would vote for this political formation.
- UDAR would receive 20.8% of the vote, VO Svoboda – 18.0%. Nasha Ukraina would gain 3.3%, “Ukraine – Forward!” – 1.3%, and the Party of Regions – 1.2%. The ratings of other parties are below 1%. 10.4% of respondents have not yet decided.
- There are certain territorial differences in party popularity. Thus, the rating of Batkivshchyna is higher in Yavoriv district (48%) than in Zhovkva district (38%).
- For VO Svoboda, the rating is one third higher in Zhovkva district (21%) than in Yavoriv district (14%). In contrast, UDAR is more popular in Yavoriv (23% vs. 19%). There are no significant differences in the ratings of other political forces by district.
- The level of indecision is higher in Zhovkva district (14% vs. 7%).
- The largest share of young voters is among UDAR supporters (40% aged under 30). Accordingly, people with higher education are also more numerous in this electoral group (35%). Women dominate among supporters of Batkivshchyna, while men dominate among supporters of UDAR. In the electorates of all the most popular parties, rural residents prevail, especially among supporters of Batkivshchyna.
- CANDIDATE RATINGS
- The leader of electoral preferences in the single-member constituency is T. Kozak. If elections were held in the near future, 47% of voters would be ready to vote for him. V. Pazyniak would be supported by 26.8%. The ratings of other candidates are significantly lower: I. Samardak – 3.4%, H. Babii – 1.7%, I. Kozak – 1.4%. 17% of respondents have not yet decided.
- T. Kozak mobilizes 58% of UDAR supporters, 47% of VO Batkivshchyna supporters, 37% of VO Svoboda voters, and 39% of those undecided about party choice.
- V. Pazyniak is supported by 40% of Svoboda supporters and 35% of Batkivshchyna supporters. Among UDAR voters, only 10% support this candidate.
- I. Samardak is supported only by 15% of UDAR voters.
- By district, candidate popularity differs somewhat from the overall district ranking. Thus, T. Kozak’s popularity is higher in Zhovkva district (55%), while in Yavoriv district 40% of respondents are ready to support him. There, his main competitor is V. Pazyniak, whose rating is 34%. In Zhovkva district, however, V. Pazyniak has significantly fewer supporters – 19%.
- I. Samardak is supported equally in both districts at 3–4% (with 3–5% potential reserve).
- The share of undecided voters does not differ greatly across locations and amounts to 16–18%.
- The highest share of young people is among I. Samardak supporters (39%). One quarter of V. Pazyniak’s voters and every fifth voter of T. Kozak are pensioners.
- Among supporters of the UDAR candidate, men prevail. Among supporters of T. Kozak and V. Pazyniak, the gender distribution does not differ from the overall demographics – 45% men and 55% women.
Methodology
- Survey population: residents of Zhovkva and Yavoriv districts aged 18 and over.
- Sample size: 1,200 respondents.
- Method: face-to-face formalized interviews.
- Margin of error (for the district as a whole):
– near 50%: no more than 2.8%
– near 30%: no more than 2.6%
– near 10%: no more than 1.7% - Fieldwork period: September 24 – October 4, 2012.
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