30.12.2024

Population expectations from 2025

The Gallup International End of Year Survey (EoY) is an annual tradition that was launched and developed in 1977. Since then, the survey has been conducted annually. This year, the project was conducted in 35 countries.

 

A total of 35,882 people were interviewed worldwide. In each country, a representative sample of about 1,000 was surveyed in October-December 2024. In Ukraine, the survey was conducted by the Rating Group for the second time for this project. The first topic of the study: expectations for the new year 2025.

 

• Ukrainians expect that in general, the new year 2025 will be better than 2024, but they expect the economic situation to deteriorate in the new year. In general, assessments of the future have become less optimistic compared to last year: a new wave of the survey conducted by the Rating Group in cooperation with Gallup International showed that Ukrainians' expectations for the next year are somewhat worse than they were last year.

• Currently, 45% of Ukrainians expect that 2025 will be better than 2024, another 27% expect deterioration, and 20% believe it will be the same. 8% have not decided on their expectations for 2025. Compared to last year, estimates have shifted to more pessimistic expectations. Last year, 51% had positive expectations (6% more than last year), and 17% had negative expectations (10% less than last year).

• Globally, Ukraine ranks 15th among the countries with the most positive expectations for 2025.

• Ukraine ranks 19th in the Net Hopes Index, with Colombia, Kenya, and Sweden three positions ahead.

• The leaders in the Net Hope Index ranking are Saudi Arabia, China, and Kosovo.

• Compared to other Eastern European countries, Ukraine ranks first in the ranking at 17%, while other countries in the region have negative values of the index: -14% in Poland, -15% in Bulgaria, -21% in Serbia, and -38% in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

• The most optimistic in their expectations is the group aged 65+: among them, 54% have optimistic expectations for the next year. On the other hand, young people aged 18-24 mostly do not expect any changes - 33% of them believe that 2025 will be the same as 2024. Expectations for the next year also depend on the respondent's financial situation: the more affluent the respondents, the smaller the share of the group expecting the situation to worsen in 2025.

• At the same time, the vast majority of respondents expect economic difficulties in the country in the new year: 63% expect economic difficulties, only 13% expect economic prosperity, while 20% believe that the economic situation will not change, and 5% are undecided. Compared to the last year, expectations about the economic situation in the country have also deteriorated somewhat: last year, 17% of Ukrainians hoped for economic prosperity, 52% expected difficulties, and 29% did not expect any changes.

• Expectations about the economic situation for the next year among Ukrainians are generally worse compared to other Eastern European countries, as only a third (35%) of these countries expect economic difficulties in the region as a whole.

• Ukraine is ranked 32nd in the Economic Prosperity Expectations Index, being among the three countries with the lowest scores: in addition to Ukraine, these are Germany (33rd) and Australia (34th). Poland (31st) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (30th) are two steps higher.

• The leaders in the Prosperity Expectations Index are Saudi Arabia, China, and Indonesia.

• Ukrainian young people aged 18-24 show the highest positive expectations for the country's economic situation next year.

Methodology

Audience: the population of Ukraine aged 18 and older in all territories of Ukraine, except for the temporarily occupied territories of Crimea and Donbas, as well as the territories where Ukrainian mobile network was not available at the time of the survey. The results are weighted using up-to-date data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. The sample is representative by age, sex, and type of settlement. Sample: 1000 respondents. Survey method: CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing). Based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers. The margin of error of the study with the confidence interval of: does not exceed 3,1%. Dates of the survey: December 2-5, 2024