27.12.2012
Dynamics of ideological markers
- According to a survey conducted by Rating Group, 52% of Ukrainian respondents support Ukraine’s accession to the European Union, while 34% do not support it and 14% are undecided.
- It should be noted that during 2012 the number of supporters of European integration remained stable, which is slightly lower than in 2010–2011 but higher than in 2009. At the same time, the number of “strong” supporters of EU accession increased each year: while in 2010–2011 about one quarter of Ukrainians definitely supported EU membership, in 2012 at least one third did so.
- The strongest supporters of EU accession are young people, with almost two thirds of respondents aged 18–29 supporting the initiative and only about one quarter opposing it. Older respondents are the most skeptical, with 38% supporting and 43% opposing. The highest support for EU accession is observed in Western Ukraine (77%), followed by the Center (64%), North (54%), and East (51%). At the same time, about half of respondents in the South and Donbas do not support the initiative.
- At the same time, 41% of respondents support the idea of forming a single state consisting of Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus, while 44% do not support it and 15% are undecided. While in 2010–2011 supporters of a common state consistently outnumbered opponents, in 2012 the trend reversed. Support for a common state with Russia is highest among older respondents (53%) and lowest among youth (32%), and is more common in cities than in rural areas. The initiative consistently receives the highest support in the South (64%), Donbas (57%), and East (54%). Meanwhile, more than half of residents in Central and Northern Ukraine and more than 80% in Western Ukraine do not support forming a single state consisting of Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus.
- Interestingly, at least one quarter of respondents who support forming a single state with Russia and Belarus simultaneously support Ukraine’s accession to the EU. Considering this, respondents were asked a direct question. According to respondents, signing a Free Trade Agreement with the European Union is more beneficial for Ukraine (40%) than joining the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan (37%), while 23% were undecided. Over the last year, support for signing a Free Trade Agreement with the EU has remained almost unchanged, while the number of those who consider the Customs Union more beneficial increased slightly (from 34% to 37%).
- As a result, Western, Northern, and Central Ukraine show greater support for the agreement with the European Union, while Donbas, the South, and the East show greater support for joining the Customs Union. There is also a relatively higher share of undecided respondents in the East. Youth and people with higher education traditionally show greater support for signing the Free Trade Agreement with the EU, while older respondents are more likely to support joining the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan.
- Forty-one percent of respondents support granting Russian the status of a state language, while more than half (51%) oppose it and 8% are undecided. Over the past two years, the numbers of supporters and opponents of bilingualism have been nearly equal. However, in 2012, support for granting Russian state language status sharply declined, especially during the second half of the year. In longer-term dynamics, support decreased from 52–54% in 2009–2010 to 41% in 2012, while opposition increased from 40–41% to 51%.
- Support for bilingualism is highest in Donbas (75%), the South (72%), and the East (53%). Meanwhile, almost 70% of residents of Central and Northern Ukraine and nearly 90% of Western Ukraine do not support the initiative. Granting Russian state language status is more supported by older respondents and less supported by youth, and is more common in cities than in rural areas.
- It can be assumed that the recent strengthening of the legal status of the Russian language in certain territories contributed to a deterioration in attitudes toward granting Russian state language status nationwide. According to a similar survey conducted by Rating Group in July 2012, nearly 80% of respondents had no problems using their native language during the previous year. According to 37% of respondents, the Ukrainian language needs greater legislative protection, while 18% believe Russian needs more protection, and 34% believe both languages are sufficiently protected.
- Only 19% of respondents support Ukraine’s accession to NATO, while nearly two thirds do not support it. Support for NATO accession remained stable throughout 2012, but in longer-term dynamics it slightly declined from 24–26% in 2010 to 19% in 2012. Clear support for NATO accession is observed mainly in Western Ukraine (about half of respondents). Youth show slightly more positive attitudes toward NATO compared to middle-aged and older respondents.
- About one quarter of respondents support recognizing the OUN-UPA as participants in the struggle for Ukraine’s state independence, while 51% do not support it and 26% are undecided. Compared to 2010, support increased from 20% to 23%, while opposition decreased from 61% to 51%, and the share of undecided respondents increased. The idea is supported by more than 60% of residents in Western Ukraine and about one quarter of residents in Central and Northern Ukraine. Meanwhile, more than half of residents in the East, nearly 70% in Donbas, and the South do not support the idea of recognizing the OUN-UPA as participants in the struggle for state independence. The idea is more supported in rural areas than in cities. The highest share of undecided respondents on this issue is among youth, while the highest level of opposition is among older respondents.
Methodology
- Survey population: population of Ukraine aged 18 and over
- Sample size: 2,000 respondents
- Method: face-to-face interviews
- Margin of error (95% confidence):
- near 50%: ≤ 2.2%
- near 30%: ≤ 2%
- near 10%: ≤ 1.3%
- near 5%: ≤ 1%
- Fieldwork period: September 25 – October 5, 2012
