18.02.2022

Dynamics of military threat assessment (February 16-17, 2022)

• According to a survey conducted by the 'Rating' Sociological Group on February 16-17, 2022, 19% of respondents assess the probability of a full-scale military invasion of Ukraine by Russia as high, 33% as medium, and 20% as low, while 25% believe there is no threat at all. The number of respondents who see no threat differs significantly by region: from 14% in the West to 42% in the East of the country.

• At the same time, the majority of respondents (64%) are confident that Ukraine will be able to repel the attack if a Russian invasion occurs. One-third are not confident in this. The number of respondents who believe in their own Armed Forces prevails in all regions of the country (relatively higher in the West and Center, relatively lower in the East).

• Thus, over the last few days, the assessment of the threat's probability as high decreased from 28% to 19%. At the same time, citizens' confidence that Ukraine will be able to repel the attack if a Russian invasion occurs increased from 58% to 64%.

Methodology

Audience: The population of Ukraine aged 18 years and older in all regions, excluding the temporarily occupied territories of Crimea and Donbas. The sample is representative of age, gender, and settlement type.

Sample size: 1,722 respondents.

Survey method: CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews).

Margin of error: The margin of error of the study with a confidence probability of 0.95: does not exceed 2.4%.

Fieldwork dates: February 16-17, 2022.