13.09.2012
Dynamics of ratings of parties and politicians: September 2012
- According to a survey conducted by the Rating Group, if elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine had taken place in early September 2012, 40% of respondents would definitely have participated, and another 34% would probably have taken part. The highest level of voter mobilization was recorded in the western and central regions of the country. Among party supporters, the greatest willingness to vote was expressed by sympathizers of Svoboda, the Party of Regions, Batkivshchyna, and the Communist Party. The lowest readiness to participate was found among undecided voters and supporters of Natalia Korolevska’s party “Ukraine – Forward!”.
- If parliamentary elections had taken place in early September 2012, the Party of Regions would have won with 26.3% of the vote among those who intended to participate. Slightly fewer respondents, 22.6%, would have voted for Batkivshchyna. A total of 12% would have supported UDAR led by Vitalii Klitschko, 10.8% the Communist Party, 4.1% Svoboda, and 3.7% Natalia Korolevska’s “Ukraine – Forward!”. About 1% would have voted for Our Ukraine, and 0.6% for Oleh Liashko’s Radical Party. More than 2% would have supported other parties, while 16.6% were undecided.
- Over the last several months the Party of Regions had been steadily gaining support, rising from 20% in July to 25% in August and 26% in September. UDAR and the Communist Party also showed slight growth. In contrast, Batkivshchyna, whose ratings had been stable during this period, declined in September from 26% to 23%. Svoboda and “Ukraine – Forward!” did not demonstrate any upward trends. Over the past month the number of undecided voters increased slightly from 15% to 17%. As a result, whereas in August the gap between the Party of Regions and Batkivshchyna was two percentage points in favor of the opposition, in September it shifted to three points in favor of the Party of Regions.
- Around 40% of voters in western Ukraine were ready to vote for the United Opposition Batkivshchyna, about a quarter in the central region, and roughly one in ten in the east and south. The Party of Regions had the strongest support in the east and south, where it was backed by more than 40% of voters; about one in five supported it in the center and about one in ten in the west. The Communists almost doubled their support in the central region, where one in ten voters backed them, while their strongest support remained in the south and east, where nearly one in five voters supported the party. UDAR was most popular in the west and center, and it also gained support in the south and east. Natalia Korolevska’s party “Ukraine – Forward!” was consistently more popular in the central region, while Svoboda was strongest in the west. Undecided voters were most numerous in the east, which was also the region with the lowest willingness to vote in the October 28, 2012 election.
- If a presidential election had taken place in early September 2012, Viktor Yanukovych would have won the first round with 25.9% of the vote among likely voters. Yuliia Tymoshenko would have received 14%, Vitalii Klitschko 9.6%, Arsenii Yatseniuk 8.5%, Petro Symonenko 7.8%, Natalia Korolevska 3%, Oleh Tiahnybok 2.9%, Serhii Tihipko 2.1%, Anatolii Hrytsenko 1.9%, Viktor Yushchenko 1.1%, and Volodymyr Lytvyn 0.9%. More than 2% would have supported another candidate, almost 6% would not have supported any of the candidates, and 14.1% were undecided.
Methodology
- Survey population: population of Ukraine aged 18 and older
- Sample size: 1,200 respondents
- Method: face-to-face formalized interview using a questionnaire
- Sampling error (95% confidence level): for values close to 50% no more than 2.8%, close to 30% no more than 2.6%, close to 10% no more than 1.7%
- Fieldwork period: September 1–11, 2012
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