As part of the twenty-second wave of the project “Ukraine in War Conditions,” the Rating Sociological Group conducted another survey of public sentiment and the economic situation on June 1-2, 2023.

Assessment of the situation

• According to the survey results, 71% of respondents believe that things in Ukraine are moving in the right direction, 13% believe the opposite, and another 16% were unable to assess the situation. As in the summer of last year, there is currently a slight decrease in the number of those who assess the direction of the country's development as correct, and an increase in the number of those who are undecided in their assessments. In all regions and among all age groups, the assessment of the direction as correct continues to dominate. 

• The vast majority of respondents (95%) are confident that Ukraine will be able to repel Russia's attack. As in previous months, about 60% said that it would take a long time to win the war: 25% believe it will take more than a year, and 37% believe it will take six months to a year. At the same time, almost 20% estimate that victory will take several months, and another 20% are currently unable to answer. There has been an increase in the number of those who estimate the time needed to win as long (more than a year).  The largest number of such respondents are among the youngest, aged 18-35 (38%). 

Economic situation

• 59% felt that their economic situation had worsened over the past six months, 35% said it had not changed, and only 6% felt it had improved. Assessments of the situation in Ukraine as a whole are worse: 75% felt it had worsened, 14% said there had been no change, and 8% said it had improved. Despite this, when talking about the country's economy in the future, respondents have more positive expectations: 35% expect improvement, 28% think that nothing will change, and 26% expect deterioration.  Regarding their personal situation, 31% hope that their personal economic situation will improve next year, 39% believe that it will not change, and 17% are pessimistic about this.

• Although the number of those who felt an improvement did not increase in terms of dynamics, negative assessments decreased slightly compared to the situation a year ago (from 75% in July 2022 to 59% now) due to an increase in the category of those who report no change. Negative assessments of the situation in Ukraine have also decreased (from 36% to 26%), along with an increase in the number of those who have not noticed any changes. Also, in terms of future expectations for themselves and the country, there has been an increase in the number of those who expect stability and a decrease in those who expect deterioration.

• The best assessments of their own economic situation are observed among residents of the west, younger respondents, those who are employed, and especially those who have found a new job. Almost the same trends are observed in assessments of the future. However, there are no significant differences in assessments of Ukraine's economy among demographic groups.

Assessment of opportunities

• In terms of economic opportunities, respondents rated the possibility of achieving success somewhat higher (41%), although 26% of respondents indicated that such opportunities were lacking. Also, 36% rated the possibility of finding a job highly, 40% rated it as average, and another 23% rated it as low. The possibility of having a stable income and engaging in entrepreneurship was rated somewhat worse: about 30% rated it positively, about 35% rated it as average, and 26% rated it negatively. The most pessimistic assessment was given to the opportunity to pursue a career in Ukraine today—33% believe that there is no or practically no such opportunity, although another 28% rated it as average, and 32% rated it positively.

• Over the past year, assessments of opportunities to engage in entrepreneurship and find a job have increased. Assessments of career opportunities have remained virtually unchanged, while those of income and success have deteriorated slightly due to an increase in mediocre assessments and a decrease in positive ones.

• Men, young people, and those who are fully employed have a more positive assessment of all opportunities. Pensioners do not see economic opportunities for themselves in Ukraine today. Also, those who work part-time have a significantly worse assessment of the possibility of having a stable salary (even worse than those who are not employed) — they have felt the decrease in income the most.

Internal migration

• The number of respondents who were forced to leave their place of permanent residence has remained almost unchanged – today it is 18%. The largest number of displaced persons are from the eastern macro-region – more than 60% of them have changed their place of residence.

• 75% of displaced persons express their intention to return home: 12% in the near future, 14% want to return but will wait, and 49% will return after the war ends. At the same time, 19% said they would not return home, and this percentage is growing: compared to last summer, the number of those who do not plan to return has doubled.

Work

• 41% of those who worked before the war are working in their usual jobs, 14% are working part-time, and 13% have found new jobs. Despite this, a third of those surveyed are still unemployed. The number of those who have found new jobs has increased over time. The employment situation is better for men and middle-aged people. Among IDPs, there has been a significant increase in the number of those who have been able to find new jobs—one in three of them has found new employment, and the proportion of unemployed among them has decreased from half to one-third.

Attitudes toward switching to the new church calendar

• 63% of respondents support switching to the new church calendar, 18% oppose the idea, and another 17% say they don't care either way.

• The transition has the most supporters among residents of the west (78%) and especially among Greek Catholics (92%). Among parishioners of the OCU/UOC (KP), more than 60% also support this initiative. Support for the transition is slightly lower among residents of the eastern and southern regions, but even there, about half support it. Although most parishioners of the UOC (MP) oppose this initiative (35%), more than 40% of them support the transition. Younger people and non-believers are generally not concerned about this issue.

• Support for the transition to the new church calendar (which also includes the transfer of Christmas) is higher than support for the transfer of Christmas was in December last year: in December, 44% supported moving Christmas to December 25 and 31% did not, while now 63% support the transition to the new calendar and 18% do not.