04.02.2016
Electoral and social moods of the population
- According to a survey conducted by the Rating Group, the politicians with the highest level of public trust are Andriy Sadovyi and Mikheil Saakashvili, with about one in three respondents trusting each of them. One in four respondents trusts Anatolii Hrytsenko and Petro Poroshenko. One in five expresses trust in Yuliia Tymoshenko, Rinat Akhmetov, and Oleh Liashko.
- Among the “young and new” politicians, the highest levels of trust are recorded for Yehor Soboliev (29%), Tetiana Chornovol (22%), Mustafa Nayyem (21%), Hanna Hopko (15%), and Dmytro Dobrodomov (13%). The remaining politicians are largely unknown to most respondents.
- Twenty-one percent of respondents are satisfied with the performance of the President, 14% with the Chair of Parliament, and only 8% with the Prime Minister. Almost 70% support the resignation of Prime Minister Arsenii Yatseniuk, up from 60% in October 2015. Support has also grown for dissolving parliament and holding new parliamentary elections (from 47% to 50%), as well as for early presidential elections (from 43% to 48%).
- When asked whom they would like to see as Prime Minister in 2016, 11% named Mikheil Saakashvili, 7% Yuliia Tymoshenko, 6% Yurii Boiko, 5% Arsenii Yatseniuk, 4% Anatolii Hrytsenko, 3% Serhii Tihipko and Oleh Liashko each, and 2% Oleh Tiahnybok and Nataliia Yaresko each. All other candidates received 1% or less. One quarter of respondents would not want any of the proposed candidates to become Prime Minister, and one in six could not decide.
- If parliamentary elections had been held in January, the parties that would have entered parliament are Petro Poroshenko Bloc “Solidarity” (16.3%), Opposition Bloc (13.8%), Samopomich (13.5%), Batkivshchyna (12.9%), Svoboda (8.3%), the Radical Party (6.5%), and UKROP (5.2%). Civic Position, with 3.8%, would also have had notable chances of passing the 5% threshold. More than 2% would have voted for Vidrodzhennia, Nash Krai, Right Sector, and Narodnyi Kontrol.
- If a Saakashvili Bloc had taken part in the elections, the party ratings would have been as follows: Petro Poroshenko Bloc “Solidarity” 14.3%, Opposition Bloc 13.5%, Samopomich 11.7%, Saakashvili Bloc 11.6%, Batkivshchyna 11.6%, Svoboda 6.9%, Radical Party 5.5%, and UKROP 4.7%.
- Respondents see the central government as relatively more successful in ensuring local elections (43%), police reform (42%), strengthening national defense (35%), and progress toward a visa-free regime with the EU (31%). Some successes are also seen in decentralization and energy independence. At the same time, around 90% or more see little or no success in economic growth, currency stability, social protection, anti-corruption efforts, limiting oligarchic influence, healthcare, housing and utilities, and judicial reform.
- Two thirds of respondents support the creation of the National Police, while 16% do not; 5% have not heard of the reform, and 14% are undecided.
- Regarding the “Korban case,” 44% consider it more of a political persecution, while one quarter see it as the enforcement of the law and justice.
- Nearly one in five respondents personally gave a bribe or a gift in the past year to resolve a personal issue, down from 27% three years earlier. At the same time, 43% believe corruption in their region has increased over the past year. For 54%, corruption is a disease that hinders social development, while 40% believe it is a mechanism without which Ukrainian society can no longer function. Attitudes are nevertheless changing: in 2013 more than a third justified bribery in important personal matters, whereas in 2016 only 13% did so.
- If a referendum were held, 59% would support Ukraine’s accession to the European Union and 22% would oppose it. Sixteen percent would support joining the Customs Union, while 62% would oppose. Forty-seven percent would support joining NATO, 31% would oppose, and the rest would abstain or be undecided.
Methodology
- Audience: Ukrainian population aged 18 and older. The sample is representative by age, gender, region and type of settlement.
- Sample: 2000 respondents.
- Personal formalized interview (face-to-face).
- Inaccuracy – no more than 2.3%.
- Fieldwork dates: 14-22 January, 2016.
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