21.10.2013
Electoral moods of citizens: October 2013
- According to a survey conducted by Rating Group, if parliamentary elections in Ukraine had taken place in early October 2013, about 70% of voters would have participated. At the same time, if presidential elections had taken place in early October, turnout would have been about 73%. The highest level of voter mobilization was recorded in Western Ukraine (around 80%), while the lowest was in the Donbas and Southern regions (around 50%).
- If parliamentary elections had been held in early October 2013, the Party of Regions would have won. Among those who intended to participate in the elections, 23% would have voted for the Party of Regions, 22% for Batkivshchyna, 18% for UDAR, 9% for the Communist Party, and 7% for Svoboda. About 6% would have supported other parties, while 14% were undecided. After redistribution of undecided voters, support would have been 27% for the Party of Regions, 26% for Batkivshchyna, 21% for UDAR, 10% for the Communist Party, and 9% for Svoboda, with other parties receiving about 7%. Compared to previous parliamentary election results, total support for opposition parties (Batkivshchyna, UDAR and Svoboda) increased from 50% to 56%, while total support for parties forming the parliamentary majority (Party of Regions and the Communist Party) decreased from 43% to 37%. Regional patterns showed the Party of Regions leading in the Donbas, South and East, while Batkivshchyna led in the West, Center and North. UDAR outperformed Batkivshchyna in the East and Svoboda in the West. The highest share of undecided voters was recorded in the Donbas (25%).
- If presidential elections had taken place in early October 2013 and Yulia Tymoshenko had participated, Viktor Yanukovych would have received 24% of support among those intending to vote, Yulia Tymoshenko 21%, Vitalii Klitschko 19%, Petro Symonenko 7%, Oleh Tyahnybok 6%, and Petro Poroshenko 2%. Other candidates would have received about 5%, about 4% would not support any candidate, and 11% would have been undecided. If Tymoshenko had not participated and Arsenii Yatseniuk had run instead, Yanukovych would have received 24%, Klitschko 20%, and Yatseniuk 17%, while Tyahnybok and Symonenko would each have received about 7%, and Poroshenko about 3%. Yanukovych remained the leading candidate in the Donbas, South and East, while Tymoshenko led in the West, Center and North, closely followed by Klitschko. In hypothetical second-round scenarios, Klitschko would have defeated Yanukovych with 37% versus 22%, while Yatseniuk would have received 30% against 23% for Yanukovych, and Tymoshenko 28% against 24% for Yanukovych.
Methodology
- Survey population: population of Ukraine aged 18 and over
- Sample size: 2,000 respondents
- Method: face-to-face interviews
- Margin of error (95% confidence):
- near 50%: ≤ 2.2%
- near 30%: ≤ 2%
- near 10%: ≤ 1.3%
- near 5%: ≤ 1%
- Fieldwork period: September 26 – October 6, 2013
Contact form
Have questions?
Please, fill in the form below and we will reach out to you soon.
