29.04.2010
Electoral moods of the Ukrainian population: April 2010
- Compared to the survey conducted in March of this year, the level of support for the incumbent President V. Yanukovych remains stable — 38.4% of respondents are ready to vote for him if the presidential election were held next Sunday. The personal rating of Y. Tymoshenko continues to decline — 17.1% in April compared to 22.4% in March.
- The ratings of S. Tigipko and A. Yatseniuk compared to March have almost not changed — 13.4% are ready to vote for S. Tigipko and 5.2% for A. Yatseniuk.
- The ratings of other politicians have undergone minor changes: support for P. Symonenko increased slightly to 2.6% and for O. Tyahnybok to 1.6%, while support for V. Yushchenko decreased to 1.3%. In addition, about 1% of respondents are ready to support V. Lytvyn and A. Hrytsenko. Other candidates would be supported by about 1% of respondents, 4.6% would support none, and 13.4% of respondents would not participate in the elections or were undecided.
- In Western Ukraine, simultaneously with the decline in support for Y. Tymoshenko and V. Yushchenko, as of mid-April support for V. Yanukovych continues to grow (11.1% in the first round, 12.4% in March, and 15.5% in April). At the same time, in the West the number of undecided voters and those who support other candidates, in particular O. Tyahnybok and A. Hrytsenko, has almost doubled.
- It is also worth noting that, compared with the first round of the presidential elections, Y. Tymoshenko suffered the largest electoral losses in the North (about 13%), in the West (9%), and in Central Ukraine (8%).
- In contrast, V. Yanukovych over two months additionally gained almost 9% of supporters in the Center, 5% in the North, and 4% in the West.
- As of April, less than two thirds of voters are ready to vote for political forces that are currently represented in parliament. At the same time, about 20% intend to support new political forces. The rest are undecided or do not support any political force.
- Thus, among all respondents, party ratings are as follows: Party of Regions — 38.5%, BYuT — 18.1%, Strong Ukraine (S. Tigipko) — 10.7%, Front for Change (A. Yatseniuk) — 4%, CPU (P. Symonenko) — 2.7%, Svoboda (O. Tyahnybok) — 1.7%, Our Ukraine (V. Yushchenko) — 1.4%, Lytvyn Bloc — 1.3%. The remaining parties scored less than 1%, “against all” — 3.6%, undecided or not planning to vote — 16.2%.
- Compared to March, the largest decrease was recorded for BYuT (from 22 to 18.1%), and the largest increase for the Party of Regions (from 36.3 to 38.5%).
- It should be noted that tendencies toward a decline in the overall support for Strong Ukraine of S. Tigipko (from 12.1 to 10.7%) have emerged, primarily in Western and Central Ukraine. At the same time, Tigipko’s positions have not changed or have even improved in the South and Donbas — it is quite possible that the factor of a “relatively stable Tigipko” somewhat restrains the expected growth of the Party of Regions’ ratings.
Methodology
- Survey audience: population of Ukraine aged 18 and over
- Sample size: 2000 respondents
- Method: face-to-face formalized interview
- Margin of error: for values near 50% — not more than 3%; near 30% — not more than 2.6%; near 10% — not more than 1.8%
- Fieldwork period: April 16–24, 2010
- Regions:
- West: Volyn, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Chernivtsi
- Center: Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy
- North: Kyiv city, Kyiv oblast, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Chernihiv
- South: AR Crimea, Odesa, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Sevastopol
- East: Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv
- Donbas: Donetsk, Luhansk
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