Electoral moods of the Ukrainian population: August 2009

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25.08.2009

Electoral moods of the Ukrainian population: August 2009

According to the results of a nationwide survey conducted in August 2009, 49% of respondents said that if a presidential election were held next Sunday, they would definitely take part, while another 31% said they would rather take part. For parliamentary elections, the figures were 45% and 32% respectively. Thus, voter turnout is expected to be slightly higher in presidential elections than in parliamentary ones.
The presidential race is led by Viktor Yanukovych, Yuliia Tymoshenko, and Arsenii Yatseniuk. Compared to May 2009, support for V. Yanukovych increased from 25.3% to 28.9%; support for Y. Tymoshenko remained almost unchanged, declining slightly from 15.9% in May to 15.4% in August; and support for A. Yatseniuk also remained almost unchanged, moving from 13.2% to 12.3%.
The next group of candidates is clustered at the 3–5% level. Compared to May, support for V. Lytvyn decreased from 6.2% to 3.7%, support for P. Symonenko remained almost unchanged, from 4.4% to 3.9%, and support for V. Yushchenko also remained almost unchanged, from 3.1% to 2.6%.
Among those who intend to vote, the distribution of support is as follows: V. Yanukovych 34.6%, Y. Tymoshenko 18.3%, A. Yatseniuk 14.4%, P. Symonenko 4.4%, V. Lytvyn 4.2%, V. Yushchenko 3.0%, O. Tiahnybok 1.4%, I. Bohoslovska 1.3%, and S. Tihipko 1.1%. Other candidates together account for 1.6%, 7.8% would vote against all, and 7.9% are undecided.
When asked whom they would support if the second round were between V. Yanukovych and Y. Tymoshenko, 35% of respondents preferred the leader of the Party of Regions and 23% chose the BYuT leader. In a Yanukovych–Yatseniuk runoff, Yanukovych also leads, 34% to 24%. In a Yanukovych–Yushchenko matchup, Yanukovych’s advantage is even greater, 37% to 8%. In a hypothetical Yatseniuk–Tymoshenko runoff, the leader of the Front for Change would win, 23% to 19%, and he would also defeat Yushchenko, 29% to 4%.
V. Yanukovych’s electoral core is formed in Donbas, the South, and the East, where his support reaches 40–50%. At the same time, he is supported by 13–14% in the North and Center and by about 8% in the West. Y. Tymoshenko enjoys her strongest support in the North and Center, at 26%, and in the West, at 20%. A. Yatseniuk is most popular in the West, at 24%, and lags far behind the BYuT leader in the North and Center, at 11–13%. In other regions, support for Tymoshenko and Yatseniuk is nearly equal, with a slight advantage for the prime minister in the South and for the former speaker in the East and Donbas.
V. Lytvyn has his strongest support in the North and Center, P. Symonenko in the South, East, and Donbas, V. Yushchenko and O. Tiahnybok in the West, I. Bohoslovska in the South and Donbas, and S. Tihipko in the South and East.
Electoral preferences differ between urban and rural residents. V. Yanukovych’s support is 1.5 times higher in cities, while his main opponents are stronger in rural areas, especially Y. Tymoshenko, whose support in rural areas is one third higher than in cities.
Among supporters of the Party of Regions leader, people with secondary and vocational education prevail. Support for the BYuT leader is almost independent of education level, while for the Front for Change leader there is a clear trend: the higher the education level of respondents, the higher the support for A. Yatseniuk.
Older people are the most decided in their electoral choice and also include the smallest share of those who intend to vote against all. For most candidates, there are no strong age-related trends in support, except for P. Symonenko, who is traditionally supported by pensioners three times more than by other age groups.
Support for Y. Tymoshenko among women is one quarter higher than among men. Respondents who identify as ethnic Russians support V. Yanukovych twice as much as ethnic Ukrainians.
The economic crisis largely determines today’s fears and anxieties. Fifty-nine percent of Ukrainians named economic decline among the three main threats to the country, 42.9% rising unemployment, and 38.9% arbitrary actions by the authorities. The devaluation of the hryvnia ranks fourth at 27.8%, and one in five Ukrainians is concerned about the degradation of the population.
Voters of V. Yanukovych are more worried about economic decline than voters of Y. Tymoshenko, 64% versus 55%. Voters of A. Yatseniuk do not share this pessimism of the Party of Regions electorate, but they do fully share concerns about arbitrary rule, at about 40% compared to 29% among Tymoshenko’s supporters. Supporters of the Front for Change leader are more concerned than supporters of both Tymoshenko and Yanukovych about the threat of Ukraine losing control over its gas transit system and about the loss of independence.
It is notable that those who are undecided, those who intend to vote against all, as well as supporters of both V. Yanukovych and A. Yatseniuk, are most united by their concern over arbitrary actions by the authorities.
The top three in parliamentary elections are traditionally the Party of Regions, BYuT, and the hypothetical Yatseniuk Bloc. Compared to May 2009, support for the Party of Regions increased from 24.9% to 28%; support for the Yuliia Tymoshenko Bloc remained almost unchanged, from 15.2% in May to 14.6% in August; and support for the Arsenii Yatseniuk Bloc also remained stable, from 10.4% to 10.6%.
At a considerable distance but still with chances to cross the 3% threshold follow the Communist Party of Ukraine, the Volodymyr Lytvyn Bloc, and Viktor Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine party. Compared to May 2009, support for the Lytvyn Bloc declined from 6.1% to 3.1%, support for the Communist Party fell slightly from 5.4% to 4.4%, and support for Our Ukraine remained essentially unchanged, from 2.8% to 2.4%.
Among those who intend to vote, the distribution of support is as follows: Party of Regions 34.1%, BYuT 17.7%, Yatseniuk Bloc 12.7%, Communist Party of Ukraine 5.2%, Lytvyn Bloc 3.5%, Our Ukraine 2.7%, and All-Ukrainian Union Svoboda 2.1%. Other parties and blocs together account for 5.8%, 7.9% would vote against all, and 8.3% are undecided.

Methodology

The survey was conducted by Rating Group.

Fieldwork dates: 2–15 August 2009.
Sample size: 2,000 respondents aged 18 and older.
The margin of error does not exceed 3%.
The regional classification used in the survey was as follows. West: Volyn, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Chernivtsi. Center: Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy. North: Kyiv city, Kyiv region, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Chernihiv. South: Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Odesa, Kherson, Mykolaiv. East: Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv. Donbas: Donetsk and Luhansk.

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