22.12.2009
Electoral sentiment of the population of Ukraine: December 2009
- One month before the presidential elections, the first-round ratings are as follows: Viktor Yanukovych is leading (33.8% of all respondents), in second place is Yulia Tymoshenko (18.8%), and third place within the margin of error is shared by three candidates: Arseniy Yatsenyuk (5.9%), Viktor Yushchenko (5.5%), and Serhiy Tihipko (5.5%). They are followed by Petro Symonenko (3.8%), Volodymyr Lytvyn (3.3%), and Oleh Tyahnybok (1.7%); the rest of the candidates have no more than 1%. 7.9% of respondents do not support any candidate, and 7% are undecided.
- Compared with October, support for Yanukovych increased (from 31% to 34%), for Yushchenko (from 3.4% to 5.5%), and for Tihipko (from 2.9% to 5.5%). The largest growth of Yanukovych’s rating occurred in the East, Donbas, and the Center; Yushchenko’s — in the West, where at the same time the ratings of Tymoshenko and Yatsenyuk declined; Tihipko’s — across all of Ukraine except the East. In addition, compared with October, the number of undecided respondents decreased by one third (from 10.3% to 7%).
- Voter turnout in the first round is expected at 72%, and in the second round (if Yanukovych and Tymoshenko advance) — 67%.
- To the question “Whom would you vote for if Yanukovych and Tymoshenko made it to the second round?” 43.4% of respondents preferred the leader of the Party of Regions and 30.7% — the leader of BYuT, 12.6% would vote against both, and 8.6% were undecided. Among those who intend to participate in the second round, support for Yanukovych is 52.2%, for Tymoshenko — 34%, against both — 7.9%, undecided — 5.9%.
- It should be noted that in October the gap between these two candidates was about 10%, while in December it is 13%. In the pair “Yanukovych–Yatsenyuk” the gap increased from 13% to 19% in favor of the Party of Regions leader; in the pair “Yanukovych–Yushchenko” it did not change and remains 32%.
- According to respondents, the trait “a good manager” is more characteristic of Yanukovych than of Tymoshenko (41% vs 19%), as well as “a good family man” (32% vs 15%) and “cares about people like me” (31% vs 18%). At the same time, both politicians are considered “strong leaders” (about one third of respondents each). The trait “diplomatic”, in the opinion of respondents, is more characteristic of Tymoshenko (31% vs 28%). 28% of respondents believe the trait “patriot” is more characteristic of Yanukovych, 24% — of Tymoshenko. At the same time 37% of respondents (in the West — 43%, in the East — 44%) believe that neither Tymoshenko nor Yanukovych possesses such a trait as “patriot.”
- Respondents viewed the following post-election power configurations most positively: Yanukovych as President, Tihipko as Prime Minister (40% evaluated this positively or rather positively), Yanukovych as President, Yatsenyuk as Prime Minister (33%), Tymoshenko as President, Yatsenyuk as Prime Minister (28%), and Tymoshenko as President, Tihipko as Prime Minister (26%). In the West, the option Tymoshenko as President, Yushchenko as Prime Minister is also viewed positively (31%).
- The most negatively assessed option was Yanukovych as President, Yushchenko as Prime Minister (12%).
- At the same time, according to a relative majority, after the elections it will be Yanukovych and Tymoshenko who will form the configuration of power: about 13% of respondents predict the option Yanukovych — President, Tymoshenko — Prime Minister (only 6% consider it optimal for the country); about 9% predict Tymoshenko — President, Yanukovych — Prime Minister (only 3% consider it optimal). 45% cannot predict the post-election format of power.
- The political advertising of Yanukovych was evaluated positively (or rather positively) by 38.6% of respondents, of Tihipko — 37.8%, Tymoshenko — 29.3%, Lytvyn — 27.9%, Yatsenyuk — 27.4%, and Yushchenko — 13.5%.
Methodology
- Study audience: population of Ukraine aged 18 and older.
- Sample size: 2000 respondents.
- Method: face-to-face formalized interview.
- Sampling error: for values close to 50% — no more than 3%; close to 30% — no more than 2.6%; close to 10% — no more than 1.8%.
- Fieldwork dates: November 28 – December 7, 2009.
- Regional breakdown:
- West: Volyn, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Chernivtsi
- Center: Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy
- North: Kyiv city, Kyiv region, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Chernihiv
- South: AR Crimea, Odesa, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Sevastopol
- East: Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv
- Donbas: Donetsk, Luhansk
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