• According to the results of a study conducted by the Rating Group, if elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine were held in February 2012, 42% of respondents would definitely take part in them, and another 33% would rather take part.
• Compared with previous months, voter mobilization has slightly decreased. As in December last year, the most mobilized voters are supporters of Batkivshchyna, Svoboda, and the Communist Party. The highest level of mobilization is in the West, North, and East, and the lowest in the Center and South.

RESULTS

• If elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine were held in February 2012, 19.6% of respondents (among those who would participate in the elections) would vote for Batkivshchyna, 18.2% for the Party of Regions, 11.2% for Front for Change, 7% for the Communist Party, 6.5% for UDAR of V. Klitschko, 4.3% for Svoboda.
  Another 2.9% would support Strong Ukraine, 2.1% Civic Position, 1.6% the People’s Party.
  All other parties are supported by less than 1% each, together about 5%.
  7.9% would not support any party (“against all”), 13.9% are undecided.
• Because of changes in the election law, the “against all” category was asked an additional question:
  “According to the new law, voters in the 2012 parliamentary elections will not have the option to vote ‘against all’. How will you vote then?”
• According to the results, the answers were distributed as follows:
  16% of those who previously chose “against all” will vote for specific parties (relatively more for UDAR, Front for Change, and Batkivshchyna),
  48% are undecided,
  36% will not take part in the elections.
• Thus, the “against all” responses were redistributed, the likely turnout was clarified downward, and final party ratings were calculated.
• Accordingly, Batkivshchyna is supported by 20.3%, the Party of Regions by 18.8%, Front for Change by 11.7%, the Communist Party by 7.2%, UDAR by 6.9%, Svoboda by 4.5%, Strong Ukraine by 3.1%, Civic Position by 2.2%, the People’s Party by 1.6%.
  Other parties together — more than 5%.
  18.2% of voters are undecided.
• Thus, only the share of the undecided increased significantly (from 14% to 18%), while party indicators and their positions in the ranking practically did not change.
• If presidential elections in Ukraine were held in February 2012, 19.7% of respondents (among those who would participate) would vote for V. Yanukovych, 19.4% for Y. Tymoshenko, 12.8% for A. Yatsenyuk, 6.5% for V. Klitschko, 5.6% for P. Symonenko, 3.7% for S. Tihipko, 3% for O. Tyahnybok, 2.7% for A. Hrytsenko, 1.5% for V. Lytvyn, 0.7% for N. Korolevska, 0.6% for V. Yushchenko.
  Almost 4% would support other candidates, 6% would support none, 14.1% are undecided.

TRENDS

• Compared with December last year, the strongest growth is shown by UDAR, whose position improved from 5% to 6.5%. As a result, UDAR has come very close in the ranking to the Communist Party (7%), and V. Klitschko has regained fourth place in the presidential rating.
• The ratings of the leaders have hardly changed: Batkivshchyna, as in December, slightly exceeds the Party of Regions (19.6% vs 18.2%), while in the presidential rating their positions have become equal (19.7% for Yanukovych vs 19.4% for Tymoshenko). At the same time, Yanukovych’s position improved slightly compared to December, while that of the Party of Regions worsened.
• The ratings of Front for Change (11.2%) and A. Yatsenyuk (12.8%) are completely stable.
• The Communists failed to confirm the dynamic growth recorded in December (over 8%), but even this result is sufficient to enter parliament.
• The position of Svoboda has not changed (4.4%); the party remains close to overcoming the 5% electoral threshold.
• At the same time, Strong Ukraine (2.9%) and Civic Position (2.1%) have significantly smaller chances of overcoming the threshold under the current version of the election law.
• All data are presented among respondents who intend to take part in the elections.