20.09.2010
Electoral moods of the population of Ukraine: September 2010
- As of September, Viktor Yanukovych continues to hold the leading position in the presidential рейтинґ, however compared to a similar survey conducted in June, his support among all respondents declined by one and a half times, falling from 38.2% to 26%. Yulia Tymoshenko ranks second, and since June her rating has increased by about a quarter, from 13.2% to 16.8%. It would be incorrect to claim that the incumbent President has begun to lose support dramatically; rather, the observed trends indicate the end of the so-called “honeymoon period” of the authorities, when ratings were driven primarily by inflated public expectations. Likewise, it would be inaccurate to speak of a fundamental surge in support for Yulia Tymoshenko, as the current dynamics reflect mainly the return of her own voters who had previously become disillusioned after her defeat in the presidential election.
- These developments are also reflected in regional dynamics. Tymoshenko has begun to restore her positions in her core regions — the West, Center and North — although her support there still remains below the level recorded in the first round of the presidential election. In these same regions Yanukovych has started to lose ground, while significantly greater risks for him are concentrated in his traditional strongholds — the East, South and Donbas — where the share of disappointed voters is growing and a gradual reorientation toward left-wing politicians and political forces is taking place.
- As a result, both Yanukovych and Tymoshenko are gradually returning to the balance of support observed in the middle of the previous year, with a gap of about 10 percentage points, which was ultimately recorded in the first round of the presidential election. The situation is repeating itself, though with one difference: last year the third position was held by Arseniy Yatsenyuk (until December), whereas today it is occupied by Serhiy Tihipko. Tihipko’s rating overall has not shown sharp fluctuations, while at the same time demonstrating a slight downward trend, declining from 13.6% in March and 13.4% in April to 11.8% in June and 11.1% in September.
- Further down the presidential rating are Arseniy Yatsenyuk with 4.2%, Petro Symonenko with 3.1%, Oleh Tyahnybok with 1.8%, Anatolii Hrytsenko with 1.7%, Viktor Yushchenko with 1.5% and Volodymyr Lytvyn with 1.3%. Another candidate would be supported by 1.5% of respondents, 10.9% would not support any candidate, 10.9% remain undecided, and 9.3% would not take part in the election.
- At the party level, the situation largely mirrors the same trends. The Party of Regions remains the leader of public sympathies, although over the past several months its rating among all respondents has declined from 35.2% in June to 24.4% in September. Batkivshchyna ranks second, with its support rising from 12.4% in June, when it was measured as the BYuT bloc, to 15.5% in September, when it was measured as Batkivshchyna. Third place is held by Strong Ukraine led by Serhiy Tihipko, whose party rating follows the same gradual downward trend as his personal support, decreasing from 12.7% in March and 10.7% in April to 9.2% in June and 8.8% in September.
- The ratings of Arseniy Yatsenyuk’s Front for Change have largely stabilized at 3.5%, while compared to June the support for two ideologically opposite forces has grown, namely the Communist Party of Ukraine, from 2.5% to 3.8%, and Svoboda, from 1.7% to 3.0%. The former are attempting to offer an alternative for voters disappointed with the authorities on the left flank while still remaining part of the governing system, whereas the latter seek to attract those disappointed with the opposition on the right flank. The growth in their ratings indicates the effectiveness of this strategy. It is these six political forces — the Party of Regions, Batkivshchyna, Strong Ukraine, Front for Change, the Communist Party and Svoboda — that would enter parliament if elections to the Verkhovna Rada were held next Sunday.
- Further down the party ranking are Our Ukraine with 1.4%, Volodymyr Lytvyn’s People’s Party with 1.0%, Anatolii Hrytsenko’s Civic Position with 0.9%, Vitalii Klitschko’s UDAR with 0.9%, the Socialist Party with 0.5%, Nataliia Vitrenko’s Progressive Socialist Party with 0.4% and For Ukraine! led by Viacheslav Kyrylenko with 0.4%. Other parties together would receive 1.1%, 11.5% of respondents would not support any party, 13.3% are undecided, and 9.7% would not participate in the elections.
Methodology
- Survey population: residents of the city of Vinnytsia aged 18 and older.
- Sample size: 800 respondents.
- Method: face-to-face formalized interview using a structured questionnaire.
- Sampling error: no more than 2.8% for values close to 50%, no more than 2.4% for values close to 30%, and no more than 1.7% for values close to 10%.
- Fieldwork dates: 21–31 August 2010.
Contact form
Have questions?
Please, fill in the form below and we will reach out to you soon.
