24.09.2012
Electoral moods of Ternopil residents: September 2012
- The results of a survey conducted by the Rating Group showed that since the beginning of the year, electoral preferences in electoral district No. 163 have been distributed among three political forces.
The rating is led by VO Batkivshchyna with 27.6%. Almost the same number of supporters among those who intend to take part in the elections (87% in the district) is held by VO Svoboda – 26.0%.
UDAR is supported by 20.1% of respondents.
The rating of other parties is below 3%, including “Ukraine – Forward!” – 2.7%, Party of Regions – 2.6%, Our Ukraine and CPU – about 2% each.
Those who have not yet decided – 14.9%. - Despite Batkivshchyna being in first place, the dynamics of growth in the number of its supporters since the beginning of the year are negative.
Thus, supporters of the parties that now make up this alliance at the end of 2011 accounted for about 50% of respondents (Batkivshchyna – 26%, Front for Change – 16%).
Meanwhile, the rating of the current alliance has essentially remained at the level that Batkivshchyna alone had a year ago.
At the same time, the rating of UDAR has increased significantly (from 5% to 20%), as well as VO Svoboda (from 19% to 26%). - The youngest electorate belongs to UDAR – more than a third are under 30 years old.
Among supporters of Batkivshchyna and Svoboda, more than a third are voters aged 50 and older.
There are somewhat more supporters with higher education among UDAR’s electorate.
Those with secondary education are more numerous among Svoboda’s supporters.
There are more working people among supporters of V. Klitschko’s party.
Also, among them there are noticeably more people with relatively high incomes.
Among supporters of Svoboda and UDAR there is gender parity.
At the same time, women dominate among supporters of Batkivshchyna. - The leaders of the trust rating among respondents are V. Klitschko (trusted by 62%, not trusted by 31%), A. Yatseniuk (trusted by 58%, not trusted by 36%) and O. Tyahnybok (trusted by 57%, not trusted by 38%).
O. Tyahnybok and V. Klitschko are the leaders of absolute trust — every fifth respondent fully trusts them.
Y. Tymoshenko is trusted by 45%, and distrusted by the same share. - The leaders of distrust are P. Symonenko, V. Yanukovych, M. Azarov and V. Lytvyn, whom about 90% of respondents do not trust.
N. Korolevska is trusted by 11%, and distrusted by almost 80%.
RATINGS OF LOCAL POLITICIANS
- The leader of electoral sympathies among candidates in the single-member district is O. Kaida.
45.0% of respondents who intend to vote are ready to give him their votes.
The rating of his closest competitor V. Maksymov is twice as low – 21.2%.
M. Ratushniak is supported by 6.5%, T. Pastukh by 4.2%, and Y. Oliinyk by 3.5%.
The rating of other candidates is below 3%.
Those undecided – 10.8%. - O. Kaida mobilizes 91% of VO Svoboda supporters and half of those who support VO Batkivshchyna.
V. Maksymov is supported by two thirds of UDAR voters and one third of the undecided. - The youngest electorate belongs to T. Pastukh (almost half under 30) and V. Maksymov.
Among supporters of M. Ratushniak and O. Kaida there are more older voters.
Two thirds of supporters of the UDAR candidate are employed.
Among supporters of O. Kaida and M. Ratushniak there is gender parity.
Women are more likely to support T. Pastukh.
EXPECTATIONS FROM THE FUTURE VERKHOVNA RADA
- 96% of respondents believe that elections to the Verkhovna Rada should change the situation in the country for the better.
At the same time, only half believe that this will actually happen after the October elections. - The most disillusioned are among the undecided (52%) and supporters of T. Pastukh.
The least disillusioned are among supporters of VO Svoboda and O. Kaida. - 92% believe that the composition of the Ukrainian parliament must be renewed.
However, only slightly more than half believe this will really happen. - Belief in renewal is strongest among supporters of VO Svoboda and VO Batkivshchyna (two thirds of supporters), as well as O. Kaida.
The lowest share is among the undecided. - Ideological issues concern respondents no less than economic or social ones.
Half of respondents primarily expect the future Verkhovna Rada to protect the Ukrainian language and culture.
42–44% expect economic growth and higher wages and pensions.
One third expect job creation and overcoming corruption.
Every fifth expects impeachment of President Yanukovych, release of Yulia Tymoshenko and Y. Lutsenko, better health care, lower taxes, freedom of speech, and better relations with the EU.
15% expect support for small and medium-sized businesses, 12% — better education.
Only one in ten expects greater local self-government powers, unity of East and West, or support for sports.
Only 2% expect better relations with Russia.
10% expect nothing at all from the new Verkhovna Rada. - 52% believe their single-member district MP should deal equally with local issues and national issues.
36% think the MP should focus only on local problems.
Only 6% think the MP should be primarily a national statesman.
DISTRICT PROBLEMS
- Two thirds of respondents are concerned about poor road conditions and employment problems — these are the key city problems in voters’ eyes.
Half are concerned about high utility tariffs, and 42% about poor health care.
One third see problems in drinking water quality, housing maintenance, and sanitation.
Every fifth is worried about stray animals, chaotic construction, drug addiction and alcoholism.
15% are concerned about lack of business conditions, 11–12% about shortages of schools and kindergartens, playgrounds, and environmental conditions.
Only 5–6% worry about lack of public transport, sports facilities, street trading, parking, or crime.
Only 3% are concerned about lack of greenery.
ASSESSMENT OF LOCAL AUTHORITIES
- Two thirds of respondents are satisfied with the performance of Mayor S. Nadal and Regional Council Chairman O. Kaida; one quarter are dissatisfied.
At the same time, 67% are dissatisfied with the performance of Regional State Administration Head V. Hoptyan, and only 18% are satisfied.
Methodology
- Survey population: residents of the city of Ternopil, aged 18 and older.
- Sample size: 800 respondents.
- Method: face-to-face formalized interview (questionnaire).
- Sampling error (for the district as a whole):– near 50%: ≤ 3.5%– near 25%: ≤ 3.0%– near 10%: ≤ 2.1%
- Fieldwork period: September 1–12, 2012.
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