25.03.2019
Monitoring of the electoral moods of Ukrainians
- According to the results of a joint sociological survey conducted by three polling organizations (KIIS, the Razumkov Centre, and Rating Group), 35% of respondents believe that the situation in the country will improve as a result of the presidential elections scheduled for March 31, 2019 (over the last quarter this indicator increased from 31% to 35%). At the same time, 32% believe that the situation will not change, while 10% have negative expectations regarding the elections. A relatively higher level of optimism about improvements after the elections is observed among supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Yuliya Tymoshenko, and Petro Poroshenko. The most negative expectations are recorded among those who do not intend to vote.
- A total of 84% of respondents declare their readiness to take part in the presidential election.
- Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains the leader of the presidential rating, with 27.7% support among those who have decided on their choice and intend to vote. Yuliya Tymoshenko is supported by 16.6%, Petro Poroshenko by 16.4%. Arseniy Hrytsenko would receive 9.7%, Yuriy Boyko 8.4%, Oleh Lyashko 5.3%, Oleksandr Vilkul 4.0%, and Ihor Smeshko 3.7%. Support for other candidates is below 2%.
- At this point, nearly one in four respondents has not yet decided on their choice. The highest share of undecided voters is observed in Halychyna, the North, the Center, and the East of the country.
- Volodymyr Zelenskyy has the strongest electoral positions in the South and East, as well as in the Center, West, North, and in the capital. Yuliya Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko have stronger positions in the central and western macro-regions. Arseniy Hrytsenko performs best in the West and Halychyna, while Yuriy Boyko and Oleksandr Vilkul are strongest in the South, East, and Donbas. Oleh Lyashko has relatively higher support in the West, Center, and North.
- Volodymyr Zelenskyy is the leader of support among young and middle-aged voters, while Yuliya Tymoshenko leads among older voters. Zelenskyy, Poroshenko, and Hrytsenko are relatively more often supported by men, whereas Tymoshenko is more often supported by women.
- The highest anti-rating among candidates belongs to Petro Poroshenko: almost half of voters would not vote for him under any circumstances. Around 30% would not vote for Yuliya Tymoshenko, 20% for Yuriy Boyko, 18% for Oleh Lyashko, 14% for Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and 11% for Oleksandr Vilkul.
- Second-round modeling produced the following results: Yuliya Tymoshenko leads in a runoff against Petro Poroshenko (26% vs. 19%). At the same time, Volodymyr Zelenskyy defeats both Petro Poroshenko (39% vs. 18%) and Yuliya Tymoshenko (34% vs. 21%).
- Six political parties have a chance of entering parliament. The leader is the Servant of the People party, supported by 24.8% of respondents who have decided and intend to vote. Support for Batkivshchyna stands at 17.6%, for BPP Solidarity at 14.7%, for Civic Position at 9.3%, for Opposition Platform at 9.2%, and for the Radical Party at 5.3%. Support for the Opposition Bloc is 4.4%, for Svoboda 3.1%, and for Samopomich 2.5%. Nearly 30% of respondents have not yet decided on their choice of political party.
- The highest level of support for the Servant of the People party is recorded in the South and East of the country; for Batkivshchyna in the Center; for BPP Solidarity in Halychyna; and for the Opposition Platform and Opposition Bloc in the south-eastern regions and in Donbas.
- A total of 65% of respondents stated that they had not personally encountered cases of vote-buying during this presidential election campaign. At the same time, 27% reported such experiences: 6% personally and 21% through relatives or acquaintances. Reports of vote-buying were most frequent among residents of the South, Donbas, the North, and the capital.
- Forty-two percent of respondents expect significant electoral fraud in the presidential election on March 31, 2019. Another 41% believe that fraud will be minor, and only 6% do not expect any falsifications at all. The highest expectations of large-scale fraud are observed among residents of the South, supporters of Oleksandr Vilkul and Yuriy Boyko, as well as among those who do not intend to vote.
Methodology
Results of the joint survey of KIIS, Razumkov Center, and Sociological Group Rating.
- Sample: 15 000 respondents in all regions of Ukraine (excluding the population of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts). The sample is representative for the population of Ukraine aged 18 and older in terms of gender, age, type of settlement, and region of residence.
- The margin of error does not exceed 0.8%.
- Fieldwork dates: 5-14 March, 2019
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