22.04.2014
Ideological markers: attitudes towards possible referendums
- According to a nationwide survey conducted by Rating Group in cooperation with the Razumkov Centre in late March and early April 2014, most Ukrainians expressed clear preferences regarding the country’s future institutional, linguistic, and geopolitical orientation. If a referendum were to be held on key issues such as the status of the Ukrainian and Russian languages, the territorial structure of the state, and Ukraine’s integration choices, 82.7% of voters said they would definitely or likely participate. Among those willing to take part, 71.4% would vote for a unitary state, while only 17.1% would support federalization. Nearly 60% would support Ukrainian as the only state language, while 36.5% would oppose this. A similar share would vote in favor of joining the European Union, compared to about a quarter who would prefer accession to the Customs Union, while support for NATO membership would be notably weaker, with less than 40% in favor and nearly half opposed.
- When calculated among all respondents rather than only likely participants, the results show a similarly strong preference for a unitary system with decentralization, supported by more than two thirds, while fewer than one in five would vote for a federal structure. On language policy, a majority would support Ukrainian as the sole state language with free use of Russian, while a substantial minority would favor both Ukrainian and Russian as state languages. In terms of Ukraine’s integration path, a majority would support joining the European Union, whereas less than one quarter would favor the Customs Union. NATO membership would be backed by just over one third of respondents, while almost half would oppose it.
- Public opinion was also tested on a range of concrete policy options for Ukraine’s future. Support for signing the Association Agreement with the European Union and the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area was high, with around 60% in favor. In contrast, ideas of political or state integration with Russia were overwhelmingly rejected: only one fifth supported a union state with Russia and Belarus, fewer than one in ten supported Ukraine becoming part of the Russian Federation, and a similar share favored their own region joining Russia. Joining the CIS Collective Security Treaty was supported by less than one in five, while a clear majority opposed it. Nearly half of respondents favored maintaining Ukraine’s non-aligned status, and most opposed introducing a visa regime with Russia. Opinions on withdrawing from the CIS were divided almost evenly.
Methodology
- Survey population: population of Ukraine aged 18 and over
- Sample size: 3,011 respondents
- Method: face-to-face interviews
- Margin of error (95% confidence):
- near 50%: ≤ 1.9%
- near 30%: ≤ 1.7%
- near 10%: ≤ 1.1%
- near 5%: ≤ 0.8%
- Fieldwork period: March 28 – April 2, 2014
