22.05.2019
Monitoring of electoral moods of Ukrainians (16-21 May, 2019)
- According to the results of a survey conducted by the Rating Group on May 16–21, 2019, 30% of respondents stated that Ukraine is moving in the right direction, while 49% expressed the opposite view. The dynamics of public sentiment have continued to shift in a positive direction since the beginning of the year. Relatively more respondents with optimistic views about the state of affairs in the country are found among residents of Western Ukraine, the youngest age group, and supporters of the BPP “Solidarity” party and the party of S. Vakarchuk.
- The demand for radical changes in the country continues to grow, with 87% of respondents expressing support for such changes. Only 5% favor stabilizing the situation in order to avoid deterioration, and 6% support a return to the past. The demand for change is characteristic of the overwhelming majority of representatives of all age, regional, and electoral groups.
- More than 70% of respondents support the idea of dissolving parliament and holding early elections to the Verkhovna Rada. The highest level of support is observed in the South and East of the country, where it exceeds 80%. At the same time, in other macro-regions, no fewer than 60% support the dissolution of parliament. A certain divergence in attitudes toward early elections is observed among supporters of the BPP Solidarity party, the majority of whom oppose this initiative.
- The leader of electoral preferences among political parties is the Servant of the People party, supported by 43.8% of those who intend to vote and have made up their minds. The Opposition Platform – For Life is supported by 10.5%, BPP Solidarity by 8.8%, Batkivshchyna by 7.3%, the Strength and Honor party led by I. Smeshko by 5.1%, the party of S. Vakarchuk by 4.6%, the Radical Party of O. Lyashko by 3.3%, and the Opposition Bloc by 3.2%. The ratings of other parties are below 3%.
- The Servant of the People party leads in all macro-regions. The Opposition Platform – For Life and the Opposition Bloc hold strong positions in the south-eastern regions. Other parties that retain chances of entering parliament are more competitive in the central and western parts of the country.
- The Servant of the People party is also the leader of the so-called “second choice.” An additional 11.4% of respondents who intend to vote would support it if their current preferred party did not take part in the elections. In such a case, 7.1% could vote for the Opposition Platform – For Life, 6.4% for the party of S. Vakarchuk, 5.1% for Batkivshchyna, 4.9% for the Strength and Honor party, 4.3% for the Opposition Bloc, 3.7% for the Radical Party, 3.6% for Civic Position, and 3.1% for BPP Solidarity.
- The party with the highest negative rating is BPP Solidarity: 51.9% of respondents said they would not vote for it under any circumstances.
- Fifty-eight percent of respondents said that in parliamentary elections they would look for an alternative among new parties, while 26% are ready to vote for parties already represented in parliament. The demand for “traditional parties” is relatively higher among supporters of forces currently represented in the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, even among these groups, between 24% and 40% are ready to cast their votes for “new” political projects.
- Support for a party’s socio-economic initiatives is the main motive for choosing a political force among respondents (59%). Fourteen percent vote primarily based on sympathy for the party leader, and 10% based on ideological principles. The leadership factor is relatively more important among supporters of the Radical Party, while ideology plays a greater role among supporters of BPP Solidarity. At the same time, nearly two thirds of voters of these political forces say they will vote primarily based on the party’s socio-economic initiatives.
Methodology
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